Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 012054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Chances for very light freezing drizzle/flurries or fog will be
the main challenge for the short term.

Obs reports of flurries or freezing drizzle have become more
sparse in the last few hours. However, cyclonic flow aloft
continues and looking on satellite upstream still shows plenty of
cloud cover. Model soundings continue to show the classic pattern
for freezing drizzle, and the 900mb level has plenty of RH and
periods of rising omega in the layer overnight. Given that snow
grains or flurries continue to be reported upstream even with the
dry layer aloft. Will continue to keep patchy freezing drizzle and
isolated flurries going overnight. SREF probabilities have some
lowered visibilities over the Devils Lake Basin, with some light
winds and recent snowfall. Included a patchy fog mention tonight
across our far west. Temps will not drop too much thanks to cloud
cover, staying in the 20s.

The patchy freezing drizzle/flurries may continue into the early
part of the day, but cyclonic flow decreases and flow aloft
becomes more westerly, so think that the threat for nuisance
wintery precip will be decreased. Cold air advection will be
continuing tonight and tomorrow, so the trend of a few degrees
colder for tomorrow will continue with highs in the 20s to near
30 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Looking at the 500mb height pattern, a shortwave kicks out into the
central Dakotas by 06Z Sunday. This will bring the first chance of
snow for the extended period. Amounts will be light, most places
will only receive a dusting of snow. Beyond this, the models begin
to show bigger differences in the placement of the next system. The
GFS has the low pressure center over north central North Dakota,
while the European and Canadian have the low further to the south
and west over the South Dakota-Wyoming border. The GFS is quicker
than the European pulling the precipitation out of the region. With
this, the GFS also brings in the cold air sooner. Expect high
temperatures on Monday to be in the mid 30s, then dropping to the
mid teens on Wednesday. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the
combination of these colder temperatures and wind speeds from 10-
20mph out of the northwest will bring us our first below 0 wind
chills for the season.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Some FZDZ and flurries across the forecast area but not having
much of an impact on TAFs at this point. All sites are MVFR
ceilings. Think that MVFR clouds will continue for much of the
period, although the eastern TAF sites and KDVL could see some IFR
conditions later tonight/early tomorrow morning. MVFR ceiling will
return by the end of the period. Winds will remain out of the
northwest at 10 kts or less.




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