Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 172020
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE SHORT TERM
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.

SFC RIDGING WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA...WITH SOME EROSION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NAM/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TRAPPED UNDER DRYING/SUBSIDING MID LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS SHOWN DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AND
QUICKER EROSION OF THE MOIST LAYER BY THIS EVENING. TENDED TO SIDE
WITH THE NAM/RAP...IN KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. DID BEGIN TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON INTO TOMORROW. HAVE GONE
WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN WARMER/COLDER DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY CLEARING OCCURS. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD...WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS.
STILL EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE...DEPENDENT TO
SOME EXTENT ON CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AS THE UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY AND THE SFC LOW PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS...THOUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD...NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE DURING THE DAY. WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND MILD MORNING TEMPS...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY INTO
THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN SE ND.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE MONDAY UNDER WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE BC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THE A THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA ON WED NIGHT. WITH FASTER TIMING, PRECIP WAS SHIFTED EAST ON
WED NIGHT AND THU.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES
ON THU AND FRI AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM 8
HUNDRED FT IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND TO 25 HUNDRED FT IN THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
DECK OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AT GFK THIS
AFTERNOON THEN RISE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AS THEY ARE OR RISE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINS
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE AND SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE DOING SO REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...HOPPES/JAM
AVIATION...HOPPES






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