Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 111655
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT USHERS IN A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT THE PREVIOUSLY DENSE ADVECTION FOG WHICH
LINGERED ACROSS CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE HAS DISSIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER OF NEW YORK. THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO GENERATING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE FROM
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN OHIO.
THIS REGION OF SUNNY SKIES WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
SUNNY SKIES TO WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW.
TEMPS IN AREAS WITH MORE SUN...CENTRAL NEW YORK...HAVE REACHED INTO
THE MID 50S WITH LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TOWARD 60 DEGREES IN ALL
LOCATIONS TODAY.

CLEARING SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN MORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING AS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER A LACK OF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CROSSOVER FOG FORECAST METHOD
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY
SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. DRIER AIR
ADVECTING EAST WILL BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS
EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING SO DO NOT FEEL THE FOG WILL BE AS DENSE IF IT
DOES IN FACT SET UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM PA AND THE LOWER
LAKES IN THE MORNING TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EVENING. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER TO THE +3C TO +5C RANGE BY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MANY
AREAS. IT APPEARS THE SSW FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
LAKE BREEZES...SO THE ONLY LAKE COOLING WILL BE ALONG THE NIAGARA
RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

SATURDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES AND INTO THE NICKEL BELT OF ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. NONETHELESS...AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTED BY A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID
TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY MORNING...SO A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END AND SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH LOOK TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THEIR FRONTAL POSITION AND TOO WET...LIKELY DUE TO
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION. 850MB TEMPS REACH AT LEAST +10C BY AFTERNOON...
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LIKELY NOT DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE START
OF THE LONG TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AFTER ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY...THIS WILL BRING A SHARP COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ON MONDAY OUR REGION WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY THE END OF THE DAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
NY...SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY WIDE AND
EXPANDING BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG DESPITE THE LIMITED
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ANABATIC IN NATURE OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES TOGETHER BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ONE OR MORE SUBTLE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
EAST. THE PRECISE TIMING OF VARIOUS FRONTAL WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD AIR WILL DECIDE WHETHER THERE WILL JUST BE WET FLAKES IN
THE AIR...OR WHETHER SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT
WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY SOME 35 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN NY. SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F.

ANY PRECIP THAT IS LEFT TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO MAINLY
SNOW...AND SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE MOVES EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BE VERY CHILLY
HOWEVER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT BEST. THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER A LITTLE BY THURSDAY. HAVE FAVORED THE DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH MATCHES PREVIOUS MODEL
CONTINUITY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE FOG ACROSS KBUF EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR
VIS/CIGS AT MID DAY BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH VFR EXPECTED HERE TOO AFTER 21Z. TONIGHT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND RESULTS FROM
THE CROSSOVER FOG FORECASTING TECHNIQUE INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FOG 06-12Z SATURDAY ACROSS KBUF/KIAG/KJHW. THIS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS WNY SHOULD PREVENT
VLIFR DENSE FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES BY
ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SWEEPS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD







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