Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SOME WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK BRINGS BACK MORE WINTRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT. AT 600 PM AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF-WAY
ACROSS THE CWA NEAR ROCHESTER. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING ARE STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE
STILL IN THE 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES STEADILY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION LOWERING
850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -7C BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 30S AND COOLEST READINGS
OVER THE HIGHER HILLS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND RGEM INDICATE THE LOWERING
850MB TEMPS MAY BRING A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LESS THAN
5KFT AND PLENTIFUL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY LIMIT
ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD FREEZING PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES. ONLY THINKING AN INCH
OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH POPS KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT MAY DEVELOP
EXPECTING JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THURSDAY LIMITED TO
THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8K FEET. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN UPTICK TO LAKE
SNOW POTENTIAL. COUNTERING THAT THOUGH WILL BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND MID LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WINDS...BUT THE NEGATING FACTORS
OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER LAKE ERIE.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE BETTER ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF THE TUG
HILL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY
EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST
RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH
SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY
TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR ROC AT 23Z WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ART THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER OR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS...OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AT ABOUT 1500 FEET WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY LIFT A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JHW MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND UPSLOPING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE IFR EAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO POST-FRONTAL FUNNELING OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH LATE EVENING. ELSEWHERE
HEADLINES WERE EXPIRED...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WHICH REQUIRES ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ON THE
LAKES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LAKE ERIE WHERE LARGER WAVES WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LONG FETCH IN THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT CAUSED THE BUFFALO CREEK BASINS
TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE TODAY. MOST HAVE ALREADY CRESTED OR ARE
NEAR CREST WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED.

BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FELL IN THE BLACK RIVER
BASIN. THIS BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT
MCKEEVER WILL RISE OVERNIGHT AND BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW
ACTION STAGE ON THURSDAY. IT WILL TAKE ABOUT A DAY FOR THE HIGHEST
FLOWS TO REACH WATERTOWN...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REACH ACTION STAGE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ICE JAMS DUE TO THE RAPID RISE FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT
WHICH WILL BREAK UP ICE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
...MULTIPLE RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 3RD ARE BROKEN...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BROKE RECORD HIGHS TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
AT WATERTOWN IS STILL NEAR THIS VALUE...SO THE FINAL RECORD MAY
BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE LISTED BELOW.

CITY         HIGH     PREVIOUS
BUFFALO      61       50 (1952)
ROCHESTER    59       52 (1991)
WATERTOWN    54       52 (1983)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA/WCH
LONG TERM...RSH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/SMITH
CLIMATE...APFFEL


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