Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270224
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1024 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move northeast across the Great Lakes
overnight bringing occasional showers to our region...along with a
few embedded thunderstorms to the Southern Tier. The showers will
then diminish from west to east on Monday...with mild temperatures
otherwise continuing. Another low will move through the region
on Tuesday...with drier and cooler weather then following for
Wednesday and Thursday...before unsettled weather returns on
Friday and continues through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak low pressure over southern Lake Michigan will make its way
northeastward across the Central Great Lakes overnight...with the
broad warm air advection regime out ahead of the low and a couple
of shortwave impulses/attendant weak surface troughs conspiring
to spread occasional showers across our region from southwest to
northeast. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible
across the Southern Tier owing to the presence of some weak elevated
instability...though any winds from these and a developing 40-45 knot
low level jet will be confined to areas above the surface...thanks to
a strong inversion situated between 1 and 2 kft. Temperature-wise...
expect a rather warm night by late March standards...with lows ranging
from the mid to upper 30s across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to
the mid and upper 40s across most areas south of Lake Ontario.

On Monday the low will continue tracking northeastward into Quebec
Province...with drier air and subsidence working across the region
following the passage of one final shortwave and its associated weak
surface trough. This will result in showers steadily diminishing
from west to east as the day progresses...allowing for a mainly dry
afternoon from about the Genesee Valley westward. With little to no
change in airmass expected...temperatures should again climb into the
50s across most areas...while touching or breaching the 60F mark again
across favored downslope flow regions south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
While initially dry Monday evening, as a narrow ridge of high
pressure moves across the region, late Monday night into Tuesday
morning will see increasing coverage of rain showers as an open
trough tracks through Ohio Valley to off the northeast coast by
Tuesday afternoon. This will result in a few hours of showers moving
across the region, with a drying trend from west to east across the
region by Tuesday afternoon. Increased PoPs to categorical, with
most all locations picking some light rain on Tuesday, however it is
important to stress that Tuesday looks to be far from a washout,
with plenty of dry time as showers taper off. Highs on Tuesday will
range from the upper 40s in the North Country to the upper 50s in
the Southern Tier as cooler air moves in from the north behind the
trough passage.

Tuesday night through Thursday will finally bring a stretch of dry
weather to region as a sprawling high pressure system builds in
across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal
normals, with highs mainly in the 40s and low in the 20s/30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
Four Corners region during the first half of the week, then eject
ENE across the central Plains to the Ohio Valley by Friday.
Increasing warm advection and moisture transport ahead of this
trough will bring a chance of a few showers Thursday night mainly in
Western NY. Rain chances will then increase Friday and Friday night
as the deep mid level trough and associated surface low cross the
region. The system will be filling with time, which generally keeps
forcing and moisture transport on the weaker side which will in
turn keep rain amounts relatively modest.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard.

Temperatures will likely run a little above average through the
period, with highs generally in the low to mid 50s and lows in the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track from the Chicago area northeastward across
the Central Great Lakes overnight. In the process this system will
spread occasional showers across our area from west to east...with
a few embedded thunderstorms also becoming possible across the
Southern Tier. Expect flight conditions to largely be in the IFR
to MVFR range across the Eastern Lake Ontario region and the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions...while a
general southerly flow should help to largely maintain VFR conditions
across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario...except for brief
reductions to MVFR/IFR within any showers.

On Monday the surface low will make its way northeastward into
Quebec Province...with showers consequently diminishing from west
to east across the area. Expect a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions at the
start of the day to gradually improve to MVFR/VFR over time.

Outlook...
Monday night...VFR/MVFR...deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in showers
across far western New York late.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly winds will veer to southerly overnight as weak
low pressure tracks northeastward across the central Great
Lakes. As this occurs...winds across the eastern half of Lake
Ontario will reach into the lower end of the advisory range for
a good chunk of the night...though the greater wave action will
remain well offshore.

The weak low will make its way further northeastward into Quebec
on Monday...with a weaker pressure gradient and stable temperature
profiles resulting in winds and waves remaining below advisory
levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF


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