Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 252002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ARCHING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN CLOUDS PUSHING FROM WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ALOFT. OTHER THAN
THIS...JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES.

A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGHER TERRAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT CROSSING MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BUT NAM AND GFS
MODELS BOTH SHOWING SOME LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH MAY BE SOME MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW 60S ALONG
THE LAKE SHORES AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN NEW
YORK. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO HELP MIX DOWN 850MB TEMPS OF
AROUND +16C WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSLOPING INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 80S THERE. MODELS STILL KEEP ANY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT ARRIVING TO WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
ON THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH COOL AIR SHOULD MAKE IT IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS
THE LAKES AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SOME
LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDINESS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN COUNTER-ACTED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING
RIDGING/WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CRESTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING
80S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A "RIDGE-RIDER" THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE SYSTEM RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY....THEREFORE AM ONLY STICKING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
MODELS DIFFERS MARKEDLY...SO WILL HAVE TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO AFFECT KJHW. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LOWER CIGS TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEYS WHICH MAY
ONLY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT....OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WIND DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. THEN WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WHILE VEERING
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH







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