Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 222032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER 48 STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SOUTH AND
WEST.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SUBTLE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL KNOCK 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
-12C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A
WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY WESTERLY FOCUSING
THE BAND ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY THEN SLOWLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE
WEAK SNOW BAND NORTH TOWARD WATERTOWN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WARMS 850 TEMPS BACK TO AROUND -5C. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LAKE EFFECT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
NAM BUFKIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A RETURN OF AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE WEAKENING LAKE
EFFECT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES MORE WITH TEMPS VERY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER.
CLEARING SKIES ARE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS NEW YORK
WILL LIE THE SUBSIDENT FLOW BETWEEN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW CROSSING ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO QUEBEC.
BUFKIT PROFILES DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO CLEARING MAY NOT DEVELOP AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY IN
FACT BRING BACK AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THIS LEAVES A LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN THE SKY COVER FORECAST. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE WILL SIT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SQUEEZED
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. NAM/GFS BUFKIT CONSISTENTLY
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K FEET WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK IN AREAS...OR THIS MOISTURE MAY REMAIN MIXED WITH
NO CLOUDS. IT MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY CLOUD COVER AND A
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT.

THE COASTAL LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON OUR REGION...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON SATURDAY.
BEFORE THIS...MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...BUT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SEEDING
FOR SNOW SHOWERS INSTEAD OF DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z NAM/GGEM ARE SLOWER AND
ULTIMATELY NORTH WITH THE FRONT...STALLING IT OUT ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE GFS/SREF DROP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL IT NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. FORECAST
WILL USE A CONSENSUS WHICH SLIGHTLY WEIGHTS THE LATTER AND MORE
SOUTHWARD GUIDANCE. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
AS WELL. THERE IS LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD MAINLY
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE HIGHS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO AT LEAST
SOUTH OF I-90. SNOW COULD SPREAD NORTH OF THIS DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL RACE TO THE EAST MONDAY...AND
USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WHERE
LOW-END ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AFTER THIS...THE 12Z GFS/GGEM BUILD HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WHICH IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN SOME PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT DOES SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW. THIS WOULD
LARGELY BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...THE 12Z GFS SLIDES THE HIGH SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK CLIPPER
LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AT 20Z WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHWARD CONTINUING TO SEE MVFR AND LOWER CIGS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...THOUGH THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
EXPANSION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA
MAY GET ADVECTED NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIMITED LAKE SNOWS AND ATTENDANT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN KFZY AND KART.

ON FRIDAY NEW YORK WILL LIE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING STORM ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD ALLOW SOME CLEARING/RETURNING TO
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/ATTENDANT MVFR.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD YIELD VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.

LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE... WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE SLIDES EAST TO JAMES BAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON
LAKE ONTARIO THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PLEASE NOTE THAT DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA
RIVER HAS BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON...
AND WILL RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.