Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 170209
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1009 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide our region with continued mainly dry
weather and summerlike warmth through the rest of the weekend...
with just a chance of a few widely scattered showers across interior
portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Sunday afternoon.
Somewhat better chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms
will then arrive on Monday as a weak cold front pushes toward our
region and gradually washes out...while well above normal
temperatures otherwise persist right through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stacked high pressure will remain anchored over the Lower Great
Lakes through Sunday. For the most part...this will provide
continued dry weather along with with temperatures that will
average well above normal. As for some details...

Overnight we can expect mainly clear skies and light winds...
resulting in yet another strong round of radiational cooling and
nocturnal fog development given our still-moist boundary layer.
In fact...the latter is already well underway in some areas...with
a recent report of ground fog already developing in some of the
outer Buffalo suburbs...and regional surface obs also indicating
fog east of Lake Ontario. We will only see more and more of this
as the night progresses...with areas of fog (some of which will
be locally dense) developing across the Southern Tier and east of
Lake Ontario...and somewhat patchier fog developing elsewhere.
With respect to temperatures...overnight mins will range from the
lower 60s along the lake shores to the mid to upper 50s across the
North Country and in the Southern Tier valleys.

While the aforementioned area of high pressure will remain intact
across our region on Sunday...there is a continued suggestion by
several of the guidance packages that a return flow of Atlantic
moisture between the base of the sfc high and the easterly flow well
in advance of Hurricane Jose will direct increased low level
moisture across southern New York. This increased moisture should
combine with late season diurnal heating to at least present the
potential for some nuisance showers over the Southern Tier and
interior portions of the Finger Lakes.

While it should be noted that some BUFKIT soundings suggest that a
lingering mid level cap could remain in place and potentially cap
off a developing cumulus field...these same soundings also appear to
be underestimating the amount of daytime heating of the boundary
layer that will take place on Sunday. If our current forecast max
temps across the Southern Tier and interior Finger Lakes turn out to
be realized (and there is currently no reason to believe that they
won`t)...there should be enough low level instability available to
result in at least some cumulus breaching the mid level cap and
developing into a few widely scattered showers. For this reason...
have held onto the existing low chance PoPs for these areas.

Otherwise...Sunday will be yet another warm day across our region.
Given a warmer start to the morning and slightly higher temps at
H85...a larger portion of our forecast area should experience highs
in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be well east of the region by Sunday night while
a weak frontal boundary will be moving east through the Western and
Central Great Lakes region.  This front, together with local lake
breeze boundaries, should be able to touch off some convection by
Monday afternoon, with better chances for wetting rains well inland
in the Southern Tier and/or toward the Finger Lakes regions.  With a
continued light wind profile, any developing storms may be slow to
move with some locally heavy rain possible.  Will have to see if
higher res models agree when they are able capture Monday Afternoon.
Tuesday should be drier, but isolated to scattered showers may
develop in the afternoon with the continued relatively moist
airmass.

Otherwise expect continued temperatures to hover 5-10F above normal
for this time of year, with highs mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows
will bottom out in the 50s, though possibly remain around 60F closer
to the lake shores.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High amplitude ridging is expected to build over the eastern CONUS
through the period, as Jose is forecast to track near or just off
the New England coastline on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Forecast 500 mb heights are rather impressive for this time of year
with temperatures expected to run well above normal. Daily high
temperatures should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with the
warmest temperatures expected late in the week. Some instability
will develop each afternoon, but the area should be capped with
warm temperatures aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As was the case last night...we can expect deteriorating visibilities
overnight as clear skies/light winds and a moist boundary layer allow
for the redevelopment of radiation fog. While this will be most
pronounced in the Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario where
conditions should again deteriorate to LIFR/IFR...patchier fog across
the remainder of the region will also produce reductions to between
LIFR and MVFR.

Any fog that forms overnight should then mix out by mid to late
Sunday morning...leaving behind largely VFR conditions for the rest
of the day under some developing diurnal cumulus. The latter will be
most pronounced across the Southern Tier and interior sections of
the Finger Lakes...where a few widely scattered showers and attendant
brief/localized MVFR conditions may develop during the afternoon.

Outlook...
Sunday night through Thursday...VFR...but with IFR to MVFR
conditions possible each night (08-12z) at KJHW.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be stacked over the Lower Great Lakes through the
weekend and into next week. The resulting weak surface pressure
gradient will result in nearly ideal conditions for recreational
boating as winds will be light and waves will be negligible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...RSH



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