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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141430
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD AIR THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WARMER AIR
LATER TODAY AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COOL FRONT.  THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ACROSS
NY THIS MORNING.  ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT CAN BE FOUND OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION WITH NW FLOW OVERHEAD.  SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVED
INTO THE STATE LAST NIGHT BUT THESE ARE DISSIPATING AS PER UPPER RH
FIELDS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA.  A MID LEVEL DECK CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVENCE WITH SOME REPORTS OF VIRGA
THERE.  THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF MI.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER OVER
WESTERN NY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST.  NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS PER 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS AND NEAR-TERM FORECASTS.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT...CREATING A STRONG INVERSION IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES THROUGH 12Z /SSEO/ INDICATE A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN NY...BUT INDIVIDUAL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT DO NOT INDICATE ANY CONVECTION
OVERHEAD...PROBABLY DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION.  WILL DOWNPLAY
MODELED PRECIPITATION OUTPUT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SPRINKLES...ONLY IN WESTERN NY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS.  THIS PUTS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
BRIEFLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE STRONG INVERSION CONTINUES TO RULE
OUT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...MEANING THAT STORMS WILL HAVE TO
BE ONGOING AND WELL MAINTAINED UPSTREAM AS THEY CROSS MI AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THEY WILL BE ELEVATED.  TIMING FOR ANY
CONVECTION...AND RAIN IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NY...AND LATER...MID DAY OR
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY.  WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY...CONTINUING TO INDICATE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
PER LATEST SPC SREF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SOUNDING FORECASTS.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW.  WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT TO SEE HOW STRONG UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS...AND
WHETHER IT MAINTAINS ITSELF OVERNIGHT.  THE TIMING CURRENTLY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE RIGHT...WITH A STRONGER INVERSION DURING THE
MORNING LOWERING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE
SURFACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IN SPITE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT...WITH 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND 60S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...MARKING THE RETURN TO SPRING AFTER OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO QUEBEC AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL NOT RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP
HOWEVER WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS SUCH HAVE
GONE WITH A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...THURSDAY SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY
INDEED. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH FAIR SKIES AND LOWS
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING FORCED SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO IMPRESSIVE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS HEIGHT FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION BRIEFLY...
LEADING TO A DRY FRIDAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE
FORECAST TREND IS THEN TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED AS RETURN MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S EACH DAY...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WORKING ACROSS WNY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS WNY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
ERIE. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF