Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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476
FXUS63 KEAX 180344
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1044 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, a flat upper level
pattern is currently noted prevailing across the country with a
couple of notable features poised to move east with the prevailing
westerlies. Closer to home, a modest surface high is stretched from
Texas across the lower half of the Mississippi River Basin into the
northeast CONUS, which is, and will remain, largely responsible for
the lovely weather that we will have through the end of the work
week.

The dry surface ridge parked across the southern CONUS will persist
through the work week as the prevailing westerlies remain located
across the Northern Plain States and Canada. Thus more nice dry
"pleasant" weather is expected through Friday as any fronts or
shortwave troughs moving across the Nation will remain to our north.
However, late in the work week a shortwave trough, currently
crossing the Aleutian Islands, will make landfall and begin
deepening, ultimately resulting in a frontal passage across eastern
Kansas and Missouri starting Saturday morning. Isentropic assent
ahead of and along the front looks well placed to induce showers and
thunderstorms again for this Saturday. However, unlike this past
Saturday`s storms, temperatures will be a little cooler ahead of the
front Saturday, with winds ahead of the front scooping up enough
Gulf moisture and advected it north to provide sufficient water vapor
to help drive widespread storms ahead of and along the front as it
moves through.

Behind the front, Sunday and into the beginning of next work week,
cooler air will filter south, bringing still more nice fall weather
to the region; though likely with cooler temperatures, highs in the
60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will remain southerly
5-10kt over the region tonight. As heating occurs tomorrow the
gusts will start back up again, but slightly lower than Tuesday with
speeds in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Barham



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