Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 302001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Low level stratus has gradually mixed out through the day on Sunday.
A decent amount of low level moisture has remained in the area,
which despite below-average temperatures have brought about muggy
conditions. Any rain chances will likely be confined to the far
southern and eastern parts of the CWA, across central Missouri
through the rest of today along a bit of a residual boundary. Day
time heating has allow for ML CAPE to reach about 1500 to 2000 J/KG
across central Missouri, with little inhibition. With minimal
surface convergence along that bounday and little forcing for ascent
in the mid levels there is a small chance for a storm or two to form
across the southern and eastern CWA, so left a slight chance for
showers in that area.

Monday will likely mark the final day of below-average temperatures,
at least for a few days, as a disorganized mid level ridge builds
into the center part of the US. Surface low pressure takes form
(also a bit disorganized) to the west, which will bring some
southerly surface flow to the area, and should allow for some warmer
temperatures going into next week. Generally expecting temperatures
for the Monday-Friday time frame to reside in the upper 80s to lower
90s for highs through the middle to later part of the week. The next
chance for rain will be Tuesday, mainly across the far northwestern
parts of Missouri. With the mid level ridge being somewhat
positively tilted the southwest flow aloft could facilitate a
shortwave trough to move through NW Kansas, into central NE and
ultimately eastern Nebraska. Northwest Missouri would be on the far
southern/eastern fringe of this activity, so any chance for rain at
this point would be rather minimal. The next substantial chance for
rain will likely come sometime during the weekend, or possibly early
next week, when both GFS and EC indicate the ridge sliding east a
bit, with southwest flow aloft moving in as well as a surface cold
front. This could bring a chance for thunderstorms on Day 6 or Day
7, but events that far in the future ellude any detailed
description, but warrants some attention.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Gradual improvement in the stratus and low level visibility expected
over the next couple hours across the area. VFR anticipated through
the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight/early morning fog is also
possible at the terminals, but several mitigating circumstances
prevent the confidence to drop the forecast to IFR. Light surface
winds and a scattered low level cloud deck could remain in place,
which would reduce chances of visibility restrictions early Monday
morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



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