Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011801

101 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

And here comes the rain. The quite, hot and humid weather of the
past couple of days comes to an end early this morning as the region
looks to be entering another period of on-again-off-again rain
chances that will persist through the holiday weekend. Looking at
water vapor imagery this morning a northwest flow is noted across the
center of the Nation with numerous shortwave troughs noted in the
prevailing westerly jet. Of interest for this morning is the trough
sliding southeast across the Dakotas and Nebraska. The resulting nocturnal
jet leading this trough has started to expand storm coverage from a
modest line of showers that resided in the northwest flow through the
daylight hours of Tuesday. Southwest orientation of the nocturnal jet
is providing the storms will both effective inflow, as the storms
track southeast, and organizing shear across western Missouri. This
has enabled storms to quickly develop into strong thunderstorms
resulting in some large hail and severe winds early this morning
across west central Missouri.

This mornings storms will continue to fill in across northern
Missouri and eastern Kansas as the low level jet keeps the moisture
feed going. Radar trends look to reinforce this idea as upstream
observations show an expanding area storms sliding southeast from
Nebraska into Missouri and Kansas. However, as the atmosphere becomes
increasingly worked over early this morning our severe threat should
diminish, but will be replaced with a threat for torrential rain and
flash flooding.

The environment early this morning is one primed for heavy rain as
precipitable water values are around 1.8", but when you add in the
expected track of the storms --they track southeast with a southwest
jet feeding in on the west side-- and what you get is a good chance
that any storms that develop will be able to put down vast amounts
of water. Indications from observations across Kansas City, as the
storms developed, showed rainfall rates of over 4" per hour from the
strongest storms. On the up side, the storms are progressive enough
that no one storm, producing that kind of prodigious rain, is
sitting in one location; though we still expect flash flooding to be
an issue given the still saturated ground. As a result, plan on
keeping the going flash flood watch as is as follow on rain looks to
affect central Missouri the most.

Otherwise for today, expect the unfettered moisture feed to keep
convection going across our region through the morning hours. This
should allow for the development of a convective complex that will
track into southeastern Missouri later this morning. However, we do
expect storms to continue to percolate through the morning hours
across northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas as the jet induced by
the Dakotas trough does not look to ever mix out or veer off till
perhaps the afternoon hours, and even then it looks to quickly
reestablish itself this evening as a secondary trough zips into the
northern Plains which could help storms redevelop tonight. Best
potential for more storms tonight looks to be in central Missouri.

An then the parade of storms continues. Models persist in
advertising an almost daily chance of storms as a dirty northwest
flow remains over the Plains States through the weekend. However,
there is a bit of hope that there will be a bit of a break in the
storm chances through the day Saturday and into Saturday night.
While the storm chances are not zero, they are looking sufficiently
small enough to provide everyone with hope that the 4th will be rain
free around Kansas City. Additionally, temperatures through the next
week will remain rather nice for early July with highs staying in the
80s for most locations over the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A frontal boundary extends east from north central KS through west
central MO, bisecting the KC Metro with KMCI north of the front. This
boundary will sink slowly south through this evening. Still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon
over east central KS through west central MO. Strong storms and heavy
rains possible. This activity is expected to congeal into a complex
of storms that tracks southeast into central MO tonight. KSTJ could
remain dry through the forecast. The rain threat will end from north
to south late this evening with MVFR ceilings overspreading the

Operational and short range models fog but temperature/dewpoint
spread looks too large to support it. Will leave out of the terminals
for now.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-



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