Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 349 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and embedded storms will continue to push east over the next
several hours, along and ahead of a developing MCV in northeast KS/
northwest MO early this AM. Additional storms in eastern NE will
continue to slide east as well, and while the bulk of the precip in
this area should push east and remain north of the CWA, outflow from
these storms could sink across the forecast area this morning and
stall, possibly setting the stage for thunderstorm initiation later
this afternoon. The larger-scale environment will be characterized
by ample instability and marginal shear this afternoon, and as the
EML shifts eastward this afternoon, capping will also be a bit more
of an issue than in previous days. However, convergence along any
leftover outflow this afternoon could still provide enough lift to
get storms going, and if they do, the environment could support
large hail or damaging downburst winds as cores briefly become
intense and collapse. A weak, brief tornado is possible if an
outflow boundary stalls across the region, but it is still unknown
if such a boundary will even exist, and the lacking deep layer shear
should keep storms from remaining organized for long.

With substantial capping out west, storms will need to generate in
or around the region for precipitation to even occur this evening or
tonight; so have actually decreased PoPs tonight and into Thursday
morning which is a deviation from the pattern over the last several
days. Storms will then become increasingly likely on Thursday as a
shortwave trough begins to shift northeast out of the desert SW,
pushing lee-side low pressure out into the Plains and helping shear
increase substantially throughout the central Plains region. Showers
and storms will likely develop well to the west of our forecast area
on Thursday so have held PoPs below 50 percent until later Thursday
evening, and feel that the higher potential for storms in our area
will likely come after midnight as the low-level jet increases and
storms can propagate into the region. Increased shear and continued
instability will support the potential for severe weather, and
flooding could also be a threat with higher than normal PWATs and
multiple possible rounds of overnight convection.

The trough will continue northeast and should shift initiation east
on Friday, but it still remains a bit uncertain how well we will be
able to clear out and destabilize, at least from a surface-based
perspective. Shear and at least elevated instability will again
support a few strong storms; however, the dryline which has been
supporting more robust convection will become rather diffuse, and
without a good surface-based forcing mechanism, storm organization
is likely to be low. The trough will then make a sharp northward
turn on Friday evening and take forcing for storms north of the
region, decreasing precipitation chances by Friday night and
especially Saturday.

Without the deep southwestern trough and continual High Plains CI
Saturday through Monday, thunderstorm chances will be lower for the
majority of the holiday weekend. A few isolated storms can`t be
completely ruled out as moisture and southerly flow lingers over the
region, but the pattern will be overall less active. Highs may take a
bit of a dip on Friday with cloud cover lingering through much of the
day, then should warm back into the 80s by Saturday or especially
Sunday when southwest flow returns to the western U.S. and the
thermal ridge once again edges eastward across the Plains. Storm
chances will then begin to increase again next week, as the pattern
returns to where it has been the last several days.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Light showers and thunderstorms are affecting the terminals now and
there may be few storms in the VC thru 19Z. Otrw...expect sct-bkn
cigs btn around 4kft thru the afternoon and evening. Storms are
expected to regenerate acrs central KS this afternoon/evening and
spread ewd tonight. There may be storms in the VC of the terminals as
early as 04z however confidence is low at this time. Models are all
consistant in bringing MVFR cigs into the terminals around 10Z and
having them persist thru the morning hours tomorrow.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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