Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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229
FXUS63 KEAX 152108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Short Term (Tonight - tomorrow night):

Freezing rain is transitioning to rain as the freezing line is
lifting north across the CWA. That freezing line currently extends
from MCI to Moberly line. Areas north of that line will continue to
see freezing rain into tonight however accumulations are expected to
be limited mainly to untreated, elevated surfaces, and other
objects. Accumulations on a tenth of an inch will be possible north
of Highway 36. By sunrise tomorrow, the entire CWA will be above
freezing and the upper level system that brought the weekend ice
will move through the area. An associated cold front will move
through the CWA tomorrow afternoon continuing shower chances and in
fact a thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Moderate rain will also be
possible as PWAT values will be around 1" which is 3 standard
deviations above normal for the middle of January. Half an inch to
an inch of rain will be possible tomorrow. The upper level system
shifts east of the area tomorrow night with precipitation coming to
an end by Tuesday morning.

Medium Range (Tuesday - Sunday):

The middle of the work week looks dry and mild with a warming trend.
High pressure will move into the area on Tuesday with temperatures
near normal between the mid 30s to mid 40s. On Wednesday, warm air
advection will begin over the area as a upper level ridge of high
pressure begins to build into the area. highs Wednesday will be in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. On Thursday, the upper ridge axis moves
over the region with continued WAA allowing temperatures to move
near 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 50s to near 60. The
next chance for precipitation will not come until Thursday night
into Friday as an upper low moves from the western High Plains into
the Upper Midwest. High temps will still be in the 50s to lower 60s
friday and Saturday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Temperatures are expected to hover right around freezing for the
afternoon hours which will make precipitation type tricky at the
terminals. Consequently, have opted for freezing rain as the
predominant group thru 22Z with a tempo for rain. The good news
is temperatures are warm enough where if surfaces are treated BA
should not be a concern. This evening there should be a break in
the pcpn for all but STJ before rain moves into the terminals
after midnight. Light fog is expected thru this evening reducing
vsbys to 3-5SM with denser fog expected after midnight reducing
vsbys to 1-3SM. IFR cigs will prevail thru the pd.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>024.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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