000
FXUS63 KEAX 141117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A cold front blew through eastern Kansas and Missouri late Sunday
afternoon advancing a squall line across the region with it, and is
now allowing some of the remaining cold winter air up north to sweep
south early this morning. The leading shortwave trough, that forced
the cold front through today, is exiting to the northeast rapidly
resulting in deformation zone of precipitation on the back side of
the system to move into the region. Light snow has spread from the
Northwest corner of Missouri south through the Kansas City
International Airport at this time. The deformation band will
continue to bring light snow to the region but surface temperatures
should remain above freezing in most areas outside of far northwest
Missouri, so accumulations on anything other than grassy or elevated
surfaces looks unlikely. However, this leading shortwave is only the
start of todays cold weather as a larger synoptic trough axis swings
through Kansas and Missouri behind the exiting shortwave. Strong
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge of the surface high will
result in still more precipitation through the day. There will likely
be a break between the deformation zone precipitation and the
frontogenic precipitation, as the secondary round moves in around
sunrise. Accumulations should be on the low side, at a half inch or
less; and depending on where surface and ground temperatures end up
around sunrise, that accumulation will likely still be limited to
grass and elevated surfaces. Temperatures will struggle to rise at
all today thanks to the strong and gusty north wind and cloud cover
behind the cold front, with highs likely topping out around 40
degrees.

Speaking of cold weather, freeze warning for the far northwest corner
of Missouri and adjacent areas of northeast Kansas looks likely it
will verify this morning. As the synoptic axis moves through today
850mb temperatures will drop into the negative single digits, and
bring a certain amount of subsidence to the region helping clear
cloud cover for tonight; allowing for strong radiational cooling
tonight with temperatures dropping into lows in the mid to upper 20s
by sunrise Tuesday. Have issued a freeze warning for the entire
forecast area for late tonight as a result.

However, while it will be cold tonight due to our clear
skies, it will also allow for good viewing conditions for the total
lunar eclipse that will occur.

Temperatures Tuesday will start out below freezing, though synoptic
level height gains and a slow backing of the winds through the day
should allow afternoon readings to rebound into the 50s.
Temperatures Tuesday night will be cold again, but with the main
trough axis having slide past and some high clouds possible,
expectations are that temperatures in most areas will stay above
freezing.

Later half of the work week...highs will rebound into the 60s ahead
of our next weather system due to move through the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday. This late work week system continues to look
interesting, but for all the wrong reasons. Instability ahead of the
next system looks highly limited owing to the moisture having been
scoured out by todays system. That leaves much of the advertised
precipitation to occur on the cold side of the surface low Thursday
into Friday. Currently, the ECMWF is preferred as the GFS appears to
being a lot of cold air south given that the pattern will be
adjusting from a northwest flow into a progressive one over the next
couple of days. Still, more snow might be able to mix in on the back
side of this system late Thursday night.

Next weekend expect temperatures to have rebounded well into the 60s
and 70s, though a weak system could bring more rain Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Cold, cloudy and windy are the best way to describe the day. MVFR
clouds currently dominate the skies and will likely continue to do so
through the morning hours. This cloud deck will also bring some light
snow and rain to the region. Ceilings might briefly drop into the IFR
range as ceilings and surface visibilities lower within the strongest
of the precipitation bands, but confidence is not high enough to
include at this time given up stream observations which have ranged
through the low end MVFR range this morning. Much of the precipitable
weather should be east of the terminals by noon. Otherwise, gusty
north winds will prevail through the day, letting up this evening as
the sun sets.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>003-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter