Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 010840
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
Looks like a nice run of dry weather will great the month of June,
but rain might not be that far away. Satellite imagery this morning
shows a bit of an undulating pattern across the Nation with a
shortwave trough shifting east through the Mississippi River Valley
while a ridge resides across the Rocky Mountains. The ridge noted to
our west will slip east into the Plains States early this work week
keeping any chance at more precipitable weather at bay for today and
Tuesday at least. There is good indications that central and western
Kansas will see some stormy activity over the next couple of days,
thanks to the warm air advection under the ridge, but any of that
activity will stay out of our far eastern Kansas and Missouri
counties till at least Wednesday. Thus, for today and Tuesday, it`s
going to simply be nice with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight
lows in the 50s.
Starting mid-work week, Wednesday, the chance for precipitation will
work its way back into the forecast. Indication from both short and
mid-range models all show the ridge shifting into the Plains today
and Tuesday will retrograde back into the Rocky Mountains as a
series of shortwave troughs move through the prevailing westerlies
starting mid-work-week. This will eventually push the ridge axis
back to the west allowing active shortwaves to dive across the
central Plains thanks to a weak trough over the eastern CONUS. This
will keep a persistent chance of rain in the forecast, starting
Wednesday, through Friday. Severe chances don`t look great at this
time as shear and instability values don`t seem to line up, but we
will want to keep an eye on the potential.
The potential for storms will persists into next weekend, though the
general confidence in the specifics are rather low. Mid-range models
point at the weekend likely having some more storms as the general
pattern adjusts locally to a bit of a northwest flow thanks to a
general weakness in the upper level pattern across the eastern
CONUS. Result is on-again-off-again storm chances for next weekend.
Likely most of the weekend will be dry, but also at some point there
will likely be a storm or two.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the night but still should
see a window of MVFR ceilings late tonight through mid morning on
Monday. Clouds bases should then lift back to VFR by the afternoon.
Winds are expected to be light throughout the forecast.