Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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020
FXUS63 KEAX 291113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

A pleasant Memorial Day awaits as dry conditions will continue with
near-seasonal temperatures underneath mostly sunny skies. By
Tuesday morning, however, storm chances will return as a weak cold
front clips northwest Missouri by the afternoon as a mid-level
shortwave pushes southeastward over the area, associated with a
deeper upper-level system near the Great Lakes. While surface
dewpoints will limit the overall instability ahead of the frontal
boundary, adequate wind fields aloft may support strong storms by
Tuesday afternoon across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Gusty winds, along with marginally severe hail, will be possible
with this activity.

A broad region of high pressure will then build from the northwest
heading into Wednesday as a large ridge develops over the Northern
Rockies. As the surface high pushes southeastward by early Thursday,
southerly surface flow will return to the area, which will bring
dewpoints back into the lower 60s by the late week. Moisture
advection will make its way to the Dakotas by early Friday, which
will prime the local area for a multi-day period of precipitation
chances beginning Thursday through the late weekend. This will
likely come periodically, dependent on the amount of forcing at play
over the multi-day timeframe as the upper-level pattern looks to
be rather disorganized. Despite the persistent warm advection,
surface temperatures will be moderated to near-normal by steady
periods of cloud cover and chances of precipitation. With the
exception of perhaps Thursday, the overall severe threat during
this time will be limited by weak wind fields aloft, as the jet
stream positions well north of the local area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

A mid-level scattered to broken layer of cloud cover will pass
over the terminals this morning, with an isolated sprinkle or two
possible before 18Z. Surface winds will slacken and back through
the period, becoming southwesterly by Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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