Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211112
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Early morning satellite imagery shows the region currently dominated
by a locally zonal flow as a large trough in Canada fights with the
ridge across the western United States. Closer to the surface, the
Canadian trough is helping drag a bit of cool air south form the
Canadian plains, which will knock temperatures down to around normal
for a couple of days. However, the near normal temperatures wont
last long as a trough over the Eastern Pacific is expected to dig
into the West Coast and induce a warming southwest flow across the
Plains States towards the end of the work week, with the trough then
lifting out across the Plains States next weekend.

Today through Wednesday...temperatures will be notably cooler as the
Canadian airmass oozes south through Wednesday with the help of the
large Canadian trough. There will be a chance of light rain grazing
northern Missouri later today as a subtle perturbation zips east in
the zonal flow across Iowa today. There also might be showers
farther south, as moisture over-runs the frontal boundary laying
out along the Missouri-Arkansas border; allowing a slight chance
of showers to reach into central and northeast Missouri later
today.

Thursday through the weekend...will see a bit more active weather as
the pattern shifts under the influence of a trough digging into the
Desert Southwest and then ejecting into the Plains. This will
allow temperatures to rebound for the end of the work week, with
60s and 70s returning for Thursday and Friday. However, these
warmer temperatures will also arrive with returning moisture,
which might bring some much needed rain to the region.

Starting Wednesday night, returning warm air advection will start
lifting the front, currently stalled on the Arkansas border, back
north as a warm front which might result in some showers Thursday
morning and into the afternoon. As the front moves north Thursday
evening so will our chance of storms. However, Friday the trough
digging into the Desert Southwest will start to eject, forcing a
surface low and associated cold front east across Kansas and
Missouri, which will bring a widespread chance for storms through
the day Friday, Friday night into Saturday. Ideally, this will
bring some much needed rain to the region, though we will also
need to keep an eye out for possible a severe threat; though that
looks rather low for our area of concern at this time. Better
chance for severe threat look to be across southern Missouri and
points south given the current expected trajectory for the
ejecting low. Otherwise, for the weekend, the low lifting across
the Plains will push temperatures back down a little.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours as what
cloud cover is out there will remain well above 4000 feet.
Otherwise, only issue to watch will be the wind, which should
prevail form the northeast to the east today and tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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