Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202339

539 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

To start off in the short-term, benign conditions will continue to
prevail as surface high pressure slowly migrates off toward the east
through tonight. Behind it and with 850mb ridging centered off of
the Carolina-Florida coastline, southerly flow will commence across
MO/eastern KS, allowing for moist, WAA to kick in tomorrow. Model
soundings indicate enough low-level moisture advecting in early
Friday morning for low clouds and possibly drizzle/freezing
drizzle to hang over much of the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area. At this time, confidence remains relatively low of
enough moisture being able to advect in early enough Friday
morning for the below freezing temps to combine with the drizzle
potential to create freezing drizzle. However, indications are
there that this scenario may end up playing out so have continued
to mention this in the forecast, although in terms of impacts, if
freezing drizzle does occur, look to remain on the low side.

With upper-level support/a couple of vort maxes pushing north
through the forecast area tomorrow through overnight Friday, precip
chances lift north, overspreading much of the forecast area late in
the day. High-res models keep tomorrow through early Saturday`s
activity on the showery side and given the amount of mid- to
upper-level dry air remaining in place through Sunday, am agreeing
that the rain will be more hit and miss rather than widespread.
However, as an upper trough approaches the area from the northwest
as well as a low pressure system ejecting out of Texas and phasing
in with the NW system, we`ll be caught somewhere in the middle. Out
ahead of a frontal boundary diving down late Sunday, PWATs and
isentropic lifting will be on the increase, supporting more
widespread rain chances with higher QPF amounts possible as well.

With this much warmer air invading the area, temperatures will
return to near normal for this time of year through Sunday. As
alluded to, tonight will be the last night through the weekend of
below freezing temperatures, although some locations in northern MO
tomorrow night could still be flirting with the freezing mark.
However, any precip that falls through the weekend (other than early
tomorrow morning) should be in liquid, non-freezing form.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The weekend system moves out of the CWA with the bulk of the precip
ending Sunday evening with only a slight chance of lingering precip
during the day on Monday and Monday evening. In the wake of the
trough relatively cool air advects into the region under deep layer
northwest flow creating below normal high temperatures through the
week, but not as cold as the recent cold snap we experienced this
past week or so. NWP ensemble solutions are divergent heading toward
Thanksgiving insofar as precip chances with the majority of
solutions being dry. Thus I kept the far extended periods dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Will begin to see cloud cover edge its way over the
terminals in the morning hours with precipitation occurring mainly in
the afternoon. Spotty showers in the afternoon hours could bring
about momentary restricted visibilities and ceilings. Have held off
including chances of freezing drizzle in the morning hours due to dry
low- levels. Will monitor this, but confidence in occurrence is low
at this point.




LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.