Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 250501
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
A large swath of showers and thunderstorms has developed this
afternoon stretching from TX into central KS and into the Dakotas
ahead of a deep upper-level trough over the Intermountain West. Most
of this activity is being driven by an extensive low-level jet
stretching across the Plains. This jet and its associated
precipitation will slowly work their way eastward late this evening,
with the axis of strongest convergence/isentropic ascent not reaching
the I-35 corridor until after 9 pm or so. However, the airmass out
ahead of this activity remains unstable and uncapped, and with weak
warm air advection continuing into the evening, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms remain a possibility across the entire forecast area
until the main axis of precipitation moves in later tonight.
Occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms will slowly track
eastward across the entire forecast area overnight into early Sunday.
Limited instability during this time will prevent much threat for
strong storms or widespread heavy rain, although precipitable water
values approaching 2 inches could lead to a few pockets of an inch or
two of rainfall especially over eastern KS and northwest MO.
Generally, however, rainfall amounts look to stay near or below a
half inch for most locations. Showers and a few storms will continue
into Sunday morning until the main cold front swings through during
the late morning and early afternoon hours.
By Monday an extensive area of high pressure will build into most of
the central U.S. with its influence continuing into most of the rest
of the week. The result will be dry conditions for the remainder of
the week while temperatures stay close to average for late September.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to build east and
weaken over the next few hours, impacting all TAF sites between now
and around 09z before becoming spottier. Winds will be variable,
eventually turning to the west southwest and then sharply to the
northwest after a cold front passes through mid-Sunday-morning.
Ceilings should remain VFR, and any significant reduction in
visibility with stronger showers should be over by 06z.