Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 301117
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes down into northern MO
places the area in clear skies and light winds overnight. Outside of
the heat island around the metro area, the low temperatures are
expected to drop down enough to create areas of fog and lower
visibilities. Some areas, especially valleys, could see visibilities
below 1 mile around sunrise with most fog burning off by 8-9AM.
Another nice day of lower dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s are expected Saturday. The weak surface ridge
keeps a light northerly breeze and dewpoints low enough to force the
convective temperature into the low 90s.  Resulting in mostly sunny
skies for the majority of the area Saturday afternoon into the
evening.

Saturday night into Sunday morning a stationary boundary over
northern Arkansas and Oklahoma returns to the area as a warm frontal
boundary. A low level jet develops over Kansas creating an area of
isentropic lift along the KS/MO border leading to increased PoPs
through the afternoon Sunday. Marginal MUCAPE values and 0-6km
bulkshear values of 35kts indicate isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. This boundary will slowly drift to the NE Sunday evening
intensifying overnight as another low level jet reforms bringing much
needed rain to our NE CWA Sunday night into Monday. The building
upper level ridge over our area will finally force this boundary to
the east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon.

The low level jet Saturday and Sunday night will cause 850hPa
temperatures to rise 8C by Monday afternoon.  This strong warm air
advection will cause temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s
Monday and remain in place through Thursday.  A weakening upper
level ridge coupled with a low level jet and instability over the
CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could initiate convection
and provide a break in temps Wednesday afternoon.

An upper level short wave moves out of the northern Rockies
Wednesday night weakening the upper level ridge and helping to
develop a surface low over the Dakotas. This low propagates to the
east extending a cold frontal bounday down along the IA/MO border
Friday into Saturday. As the boundary progresses south it will
provide some relieve from the high temperatures but adds PoPs over
the CWA for most of the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Clear skies and light winds have provided the conditions for some
patchy fog along the northern and southern portions of the area. The
higher temperatures around the city have kept most of the airfields
from developing fog around the metro area. With KSTJ being in the
river valley they have dropped down into VLIFR overnight in
visibility and ceilings. This fog is relatively shallow so the
airfield is expected to climb back to VFR conditions by 14Z. After
the morning fog burns off VFR conditions are expected over the region
through the rest of the period. A warm frontal boundary is expected
to move into the area late in the TAF period with most models showing
thunderstorms in the area by 12Z but the exact timing is still
uncertain. Due to this uncertainty, VCTS was added to the TAFs
between 10-11Z to show the potential for thunder in the area.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham/Hawblitzel



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