Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011734

1134 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Updates to the going forecast have been focused on the last band of
precipitation advecting out of south central Kansas into west central
Missouri. Radar returns and surface observations show this last band
containing some light snow and sleet. Current trajectory on radar
indicates that the activity should stay south of a Harrisonville to
Fayette line through the early to mid-afternoon hours. Have dropped
the Winter Weather Advisory for parts farther north as a result. A
few flakes of snow may still fall from the sky, but accumulating
activity will be farther south. Anticipate canceling the rest of the
Advisory as the back edge of the precipitation band moves through
this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 346 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Early this morning we are watching a second round of snow begin to
exit the area. This round of snow will be capable of producing an
additional half an inch to perhaps an inch across central Missouri
as it exits. The remainder of today will feature one or two
frontogenetically forced bands of snow set up across the CWA. There
is still some discrepancies as to the precise location of where
these bands will set up however, hi res models such as the WRF and
HRRR suggest that a first band will set up along the I-70 corridor
this morning with a second band setting up across the southern CWA
late morning into the afternoon. This means much of northern
Missouri will miss out on most of the snow today seeing perhaps a
dusting to a couple tenths of an inch. That being said will remove
the two northern rows of Counties from the advisory from Adair
County to Atchison County in Kansas. Further south where the snow is
expected to fall half an inch to perhaps a quick inch will still be
possible today so will keep the advisory going in those locations.

Models are in good agreement that snow will exit the area by this
evening as high pressure builds into the region from the northern
Plains. Light winds and snowpack will allow lows to drop into the
teens to lower 20s despite mostly cloudy skies. High pressure will
remain over the area most of the day on Monday before finally
shifting east in the afternoon. This will allow winds to pick up
from the southeast late in the day and help temperatures rise into
the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Overview: The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with
the primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough with a lead shortwave trough ejecting into the Central Plains
Monday night into Tuesday.

Monday Night: Strong warm air and moisture advection within a broad
warm sector is expected in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area Monday night. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
This accumulation will be very brief as air temperatures will
gradually warm during the night, with readings above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: Rain will overspread the entire area on
Tuesday as strong ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a
surface low/cold front. Models have backed off on what little
shallow CAPE was previously projected, and likewise have removed
thunder mention. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the middle 40s
north to the lower 50s south. The cold front will move through the
CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of lingering
precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends. There is
still modest spread among model members, but overall confidence is
low for any post-frontal accumulating snowfall.

Wednesday/beyond: Cold weather with below normal temperatures and
dry weather are expected for Wednesday into Thursday as surface high
pressure builds into the central CONUS and the upper trough slowly
moves eastward. Downslope component commences over the Plains on
Friday with temperatures moderating, with highs across the forecast
area returning to near normal levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will replace the winter weather as it continues to
move eastward. Could see some periodic MVFR ceilings during Sunday
afternoon, though will mostly remain VFR with sct layer around
3-4kft, lifting even further Sunday evening. NW winds will veer
through the period, becoming ESE by 18Z Monday.


KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-




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