000
FXUS63 KEAX 212300
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Tue May 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Primary cutoff circulation that pushed a cold front and storms
through eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday and Monday continues to
spin across the Northern Plains today Convective activity persists
along the southern periphery of the trough, across the Red River
Valley along the OK/TX border into Arkansas. However, in our area
cloud cover and the potently for a few light showers cast off from
the activity to our south appear to be the only concerns through the
remainder of the daylight and evening hours across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. Only issue for late tonight might be some
patchy ground fog as skies across east central Kansas and central
Missouri may clear out some before sunrise.

Overnight the cutoff low across the Northern Plains will begin to
open up, eventually beginning to phase with a trough currently
rotating through the Hudson Bay. This will leave the nation with a
bit of a blocking pattern in place, with East and West coast troughs
sandwiching a shortwave ridge in place across the Central Plains.
However, before the ridge establishes itself across the Plains, some
more cool air will filter south overnight. This will likely knock
our temperatures down below normal for Wednesday, with highs only
the in the 60s along the Iowa border. Otherwise, there will be a
slight chance of showers Wednesday due to frontogenic forcing across
far northern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday as the shortwave ridge
moves in, beginning to push temperatures back up to near normal. The
ridge will also keep any threat of storms at bay till late Friday as
series of fast moving shortwave troughs begin ejecting from the West
Coast trough up and over the ridge across the Plains States.
However, the parade of shortwave trough will keep the potential for
unsettled weather across the region Friday night through next
Tuesday. So, yes, there looks to be at least a chance for showers or
thunderstorms through the upcoming holiday weekend. At this time the
threat of any severe weather looks low owing to a miss match between
instability and shear.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to slowly rebound through the weekend
with the persistent shortwave ridge in place. Highs in the 80s will
be possible across the entire region by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Anticipate VFR conditions to continue through the period. Some MVFR
ceilings over Nebraska, but confidence isn`t particularly high those
or additional development will make it to terminals overnight, so
left VFR. Otherwise current gusty westerly winds will reduce in
speed around sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Blair