Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261552
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1052 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
MODEST H5 HEIGHT RISES. AT THE SFC...EXPECT A WEAK LEE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP FROM ERN MT SOUTHWARD TO WRN SD AND ERN WY. STILL SEEING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR...BUT EXPECT THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATIVELY WET SOIL FROM RECENT RAINS...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY GREEN CONDITIONS...VERTICAL MIXING MIGHT STRUGGLE A BIT
TODAY. AS SUCH NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY. A
NUMBER OF HI-RES MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW
STORMS FIRING ACROSS WRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LACKING...SO FEEL ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED IN THIS CWA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FEATURES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER. FOR TODAY...85H
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE +21 TO +29C RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO MID 90S FAR
SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS
PATTERN AND ALSO SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS...EXPECT WAA MID
LEVEL ACCAS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
HOW FAR NORTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE
MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST CANADA TODAY DROPPING SOUTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFYING. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL ALSO FALL WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MT BY 12Z MONDAY AND LIFTING
NORTH AND DEEPENING EVEN MORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...STRONG SOUTH AND VERY WARM WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.
85H TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30C.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA.

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST...A FAST MOVING
COOL FRONT/DRY LINE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THE WARMING ALOFT AND
STRENGTH OF IT BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE STRONG FOCUS/LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT/DRY LINE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN CWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASING WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE IT COULD BECOME VERY WINDY WITH 925H WINDS
FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. SHOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME CAA STRATOCU.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
DRY...MILD AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MAY SEE PRECIPITATION RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SOME AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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