Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...A WEAK TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALLOWED FOR WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES A DECENT CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO STILL PICKING UP
ON THE AREA OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS GRADUALLY DRIFTED
FROM THE CENTRAL CWA TO THE WESTERN CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WELL MIXED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY TO CLIP THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A LOW POP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY WILL DROP
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...MARKING THE RETURN
OF CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
STABLE...SO FOR NOW EXPECTING ONLY GENERAL THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE IN PLACE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODIC CHANCES OF INSTABILITY AND STORMS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
BITING OFF ON THE CHANGE QUICKER AND WITH A DEEPER ENTERING TROUGH
THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF SHIFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE MODELS ORIGINALLY INDICATE SO AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS ON
TIMING. THAT SAID DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND FOR
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR



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