Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180522 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Adjusted pops farther north for the next couple of hours based on
current radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track
this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Satellite shows cooler cloud tops along with increasing echoes on
radar across western SD late this afternoon. Jet stream lift along
with the short wave trough coming in from the west were responsible
for these clouds and light rainfall. Operational models and hi-res
models all show this area of light rain will continue to spread east
into this evening and then drop southward and out of the region
after midnight. Central SD will have the best chances of measurable
rainfall with this system. Temperatures could cool off enough with
evaporative cooling resulting in some snowfall with no measurable
snowfall expected. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will slowly
drop south through the night with mostly sunny skies on Saturday as
surface high pressure and cooler air build into the region tonight
and Saturday. As the mixing layer increases with the colder air
coming in on Saturday, expect breezy northwest winds through the
day. It will feel much colder with the winds and temperatures with
highs in the upper 20s far northeast to the lower 40s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

The extended period looks to be dry, with temperatures being the
main target of opportunity as it appears there will be a couple
periods of abnormally mild conditions. Increased highs over
SuperBlend just a touch on Sunday, but by a few degrees on Monday as
this is when the warmest 925mb temps reside over the area.
SuperBlend has been too cool in these scenarios of above normal
temperatures. Then, a good shot of cold air moves in for Tuesday,
but it`s right back to mild temps by Thanksgiving. Models agree
rather well in this mid-week cold surrounded by warmth at the
beginning and end of next week. Did not change SuperBlend much for
next Thursday and Friday though as this is still several days out,
but it appeared Sunday and Monday were worthy of some increase in
temperatures. As a side note, overnight lows were also lowered a few
degrees during periods where surface high pressure systems were
overhead, as SuperBlend typically struggles with this as well and
fails to go cold enough in typical cool spots such as Aberdeen.
Bottomed out Aberdeen`s temps a bit for tomorrow night, then again
Tuesday night. Tomorrow night is a bit more tricky though as
soundings suggest there will be some high clouds moving in a few
hours before sunrise.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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