Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232327 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 622 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Adjusted areal coverage of pops slightly this evening to reflect
current radar trends across north central SD. Otherwise no
further changes were needed to the forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

An active wx pattern is expected to continue through the short term.
For tnt sat pix reveal an agitated cu field over se montana and far
western dakotas.  Some of this activity is expected to develop into
shra/tsra and may make it into the northwest ABR cwa before nocturnal
cooling takes shape. So will continue slight chc pops over nw cwa
into the evening.  The rest of the forecast area should be mainly
dry tnt.

Tuesday should also be mainly dry. However toward late aftn and
evening another wave is expected to approach from the southwest.
This wx feature will spread showers and storms north across much of
the state Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Models indicate fair amount
of available moisture/uvm to support widespread activity. Cape progs
suggest svr threat not all that great. But moderate llj could
support fairly strong elevated convection late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. Still feel biggest threat is locally heavy rain
with pwats approaching 1.25-1.45 inches.  Behind the system later on
Wednesday and into Thursday it should become a bit more tranquil
with lesser chances of convection as drier air advects into the
region behind departing wave.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

A persistent upper level trough over the western half of the US will
be the dominant weather feature through the long term portion of the
forecast and beyond. While the upper level trough will change
locations...the overall affect will be periods of showers and
thunderstorms for this CWA through the period. Temperatures through
the period will range above climo...especially during the holiday
weekend as 850 mb temps climb into the upper teens Celsius with
decent mixing winds. Highs should reach the upper 70s to the low 80s
for most of the region Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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