Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310533 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COOL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

SUNDAY...BREEZY RETURN FLOW WINDS BRING LIMITED MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION TO RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. NO CAPE IS PRESENT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT FORECASTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY. WEAK ENERGY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ALL OF THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN US LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SLOWLY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US AND CLOSING OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL
US WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALONG WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PREVAILING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGH DEW POINTS IN
RESULTING IN SOME DEEP INSTABILITY. EACH SHORT WAVE COMING OFF THE
LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER OUR REGION WILL KICK OFF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE CHANCES IN FOR
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE
COMING OVER THE REGION. AND SINCE WE ARE MOVING INTO EARLY
JUNE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT SHOWERS
MAKING THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TNT AND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE



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