Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 252103
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED NICELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA AS COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL THANKS TO FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO WHILE A NORTHERLY BREEZE IS
MAINTAINED. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 BELOW TO 30
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS IN THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING VERY
COLD TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
DEPARTS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS WHICH
WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS...IT`LL BE COLD...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SOME OF
THESE RECENT COLD SNAPS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO DAY-TIME READINGS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT-TIME READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA AT THAT TIME. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS SOME HINT OF A SYSTEM LIFTING
ENEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL
BASICALLY DRY OVER THIS CWA AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL ARE BRINGING MORE
ENERGY/PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
WAA/OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SUPERBLEND
POPS ARE STILL SIDING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF...WITH MEAGER SLT CHC
POPS COVERAGE RELEGATED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW-PRODUCING STRATUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION. SNOW AT
KABR AND KMBG HAS ENDED...AND SHOULD BE ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KATY. THERE MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF FLURRIES
AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THAT SHOULD NOT PREVENT
THE OVERALL PREVAILING FLY WX CONDITION FROM BEING VFR AT THESE
THREE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS SNOWING AT
KPIR...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SNOWING THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. THAT SAID...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE TO VFR BY
APPX 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM
     MST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ003>006-009-010-016>018.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.