Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEE UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. EXPANDED THE ISOLATED POP
MENTION FURTHER EAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ANOTHER FAIRLY
DISTINCT AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL WAVE
SHOWS UP LATER TONIGHT...SO MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION SHOWS UP AS WELL AS SOME
LOW CAPE VALUES. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DID A BROAD BRUSHED AREA OF LOW
POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME
CHALLENGE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP...THE
SOUTHWEST CWA COULD GAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND
WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THIS REGION. A LESS IMPRESSIVE EAST SOUTHEAST MIXING WIND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

NO NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN MODELS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES
SHOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT...CERTAINLY NOTHING WIDESPREAD IF IT DOES OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS AS MEAN RIDGE IS TO THE WEST AND WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH...ESPECIALLY
BY MID WEEK. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE A RESULT AS WELL..FALLING FROM THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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