Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171827
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1227 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A bit of lingering precip over our far southeastern counties will
exit in the next few hours. After the precip moves off conditions
should be fairly quiet with colder temperatures continuing to
move in behind the surface trough. There may be a few degrees of
recovery this afternoon but many spots have probably already seen
highs for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Main issue is right off the bat. A cold front is moving east into
eastern ND. Moisture and several short waves embedded in the upper
flow moving northeast across the area just ahead of the front.
Warmer air ahead of the front as well. Enough frontogenesis late
evening to current for precipitation central-northeastern ND into
far NW MN and SE Manitoba. Temperatures right near 32F so a mix
occurring. Coldest roads temps in this area too. That first batch
of precipitation is moving off to the northeast. Now trailing on
the southwestern edge of this main area is spotty/light
precipitation extending at 0915z thru Grand Forks to Jamestown.
Temperatures at the sfc 32-34 in most areas so likely liquid but
road temps closer to 31-32F so some slick areas may be found.
Precip though is light. Next short wave and precipitation area is
moving northeast from NW South Dakota and will move thru SE ND
into parts of WC this morning. Once again pretty light.
Temperatures in this area should be a bit warmer with more 33-34
and thus a bit lesser risk of icing.

Do expect any precipitation chances to exit the forecast area by
early aftn.

Cold front will push though and winds turn west to northwest and
temperatures will fall some behind it. Colder tonight but dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday a dry but chilly day as high pressure moves southeast
across western ND.

Low amplitude upper level ridge will move over the area as we head
into Sunday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF drop a short wave
southeast across southwest Ontario Sun afternoon. Few showers
could skirt Lake of the Woods county Sun. Another cold front will
move out of Canada Mon with the GFS a slightly faster solution.
Light rain/snow showers will be possible over northern MN Mon.

Long wave pattern amplifies a bit through the period. Long wave
upper ridge will build slowly over the western US while long wave
trough deepens slowly over New England states through the period.

The ECMWF and GFS were similar at the beginning of the period but
the ECMWF becomes the faster solution with time. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS were trending slower over the last couple model runs. Models
were out of phase with the flow over Canada by next Thu. Will blend
the models.

High temperatures increase a degree or less the Mon and Tue. Wed and
Thu high temps were increased one to five degrees from yesterdays
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

All TAF sites are VFR with high clouds lingering. The VFR
conditions will continue for the rest of the afternoon and into
the overnight hours, but some MVFR ceilings will start moving in
tomorrow morning with a surge of colder air. West to northwest
winds will stay below 12 kts for much of the period but will begin
to pick up and gust above 20 kts tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR


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