Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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641
FXUS63 KFGF 021744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH NEARLY ALL THE PCPN. SEEMS LIKE THE BEST LIFT
WAS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME COLD TEMPS
ALOFT BEHIND IT. THEREFORE STARTING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY OF THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. AT LEAST ONE RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SOME...SO WILL KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR THIS...BUT NOT MENTION ANY MORE SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALREADY SO HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
SOME AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

500 MB RIDGE NEAR CALGARY EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE IS NEAR THE BRANDON MANITOBA AREA
AND WILL DROP THRU CNTRL ND TODAY. THERE REMAINS A FEW SHOWERS
WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY NOW CENTERED RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER BRANDON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE DVL BASIN THIS MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT
WAVE AND 500 COOL POOL GIVES SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTN (BIS-JMS) AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS LINES WITH SPC GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK TODAY.
CONTINUED TREND FROM PREV FCST AND MADE FEW CHANGES. AREA OF MID
CLOUDS IN CNTRL ND WITH HIGHER CLOUDS EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE.
DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENOUGH SUN AND WARMTH TO BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH A 70 OR SO PSBL IN NRN RRV AS THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPS 925-850 MB AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTN.
WINDS TODAY PRETTY LIGHT.....GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND THEN ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE RRV AND ERN ND.
TEMPS IN NRN AREAS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WHILE SRN AREAS TO BE A
BIT WARMER WITH LOW 70S. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE
TO OUR EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATER TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SPREAD
SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WED
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BOTH
THU/FRI MOSTLY 75-80. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN MORE VARIABLE. SOME MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE SOME 00Z MON
RUNS HAVE COME ALONG WITH A DRIER SOLN. WILL MAINTAIN THE CR
SUPERBLEND APPROACH WHICH MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCT TO FEW HIGH CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



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