Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220254
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Will maintain low end pops over the far SE forecast area as
convection continues to develop in zone of low level (850mb)
frontogenetic forcing.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

No update necessary. Still some chance for redevelopment over the
far SE so will maintain some low pops for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Precip chances in the far north and far south will be the primary
forecast challenges for the period.

The forecast area continues to be caught between systems with
surface high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to
the south. Along the edge of the surface high across northwestern
ND another band of fairly strong 700mb frontogenesis has
developed and more showers have formed near the international
border. The models are all fairly consistent on lifting the best
frontogenesis northward into Canada this evening. Think that the
far northwestern counties could get brushed by the showers but
otherwise most of the rain generated by that feature will stay to
the north and west.

Further south, there is a decent shortwave trough lifting out of
Neb and that system will move into IA and southern MN overnight.
Short range models have been trending further south and away from
our southeastern counties, but storms have already started to
develop just south of Grant county so some showers and storms are
not out of the question as the system moves northeast. The heavy
rainfall and true severe threat will be further south along the
warm front, but SPC meso page has some elevated CAPE in the far
southern counties. Will keep a chance for showers and isolated
thunder going for this evening. The push between drier air from
high pressure to our north and moisture from the south will
continue into tomorrow. A few of the models keep some precip in
the far south into Thursday, so kept some very low POPs going
along that border.

With some clearing tonight and drier air moving in from Canada,
the northern half of the CWA should see temps dip down into the
40s tonight. The cloudier south should stay in the 50s. With weak
cold air advection highs on Thursday should be mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

An upper ridge will begin to move east of the region late Thu night
into Friday, allowing a southwest flow pattern to develop aloft.  An
upper trough/low will then move over the northern plains this
weekend, resulting in an extended period of active weather from
Friday through Monday as the upper low wobbles over northwestern ND.
Key challenges for weekend weather will be timing a possible dry
slot that will bring a break to the active weather Saturday night
and typical model differences on the positions/tracks of surface
features and precipitation.  Temperatures will generally be in the
60s however southeast ND and most of the valley may rise into the
70s (upper 70s in the southern valley) if the GFS-progged dry slot
brings some sunshine late Sat aftn. Dry weather should arrive in the
Tue-Wed timeframe next week as ridging amplifies over the northern
rockies and the upper low sinks into the southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR with at worst mid/upper level cigs. Any pcpn should remain N
or S of TAF sites.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker


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