Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Radar shows the rain moving out of the Devils Lake Basin with it
continuing over the northern RRV and northwestern MN. There has
been some BR starting to form along the backside of the rain with
some drizzle/fog not out of the question. Drier air moving into
central ND ahead of the stratus and cold air starting to come down
out of Canada. Temps have been holding fairly steady and looking
at the short range temperature curve as well as readings upstream
see little reason for any huge drops in the next few hours. Will
continue to keep precip exiting off to the east and with some mix
over the northeastern CWA later on towards morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The forecast challenge for the short term will be precipitation
type after midnight tonight. Earlier forecast updates today
addressed increasing max wet bulbs aloft and road temperatures to
force mostly rain through midnight. A couple of considerations,
however, are temps under the rain/clouds over the northern valley
limited daytime highs...however not expecting that to have a
significant impact on when temps fall back below zero tonight.

For model timing, leaning toward CONSSHORT and ECAM (blend of the
individual CAMs) for timing light precip over NW Minnesota attm
and some heavier showers currently west and north of Minot...with
a lull in activity expected in between. Cloud cover and continued
southerly flow will keep temps from dropping off too quickly even
in areas where temps are currently in the 34 to 36 F range (NW
zones). Main challenge is how much precip will be behind wind
shift/trough as temps begin to decline. Earlier High Res runs
showed precip out running the falling sfc temps...for an all rain
solution but 12Z GFS/GEM/NAM and late morning Hi Res runs slowed
precip over NW Minnesota down sufficiently that sfc temps may fall
to or just below the freezing mark. Thus, in the 06Z to 12Z
timeframe we still have a mention of a wintry mix however would
expect rain/light freezing rain to change over to
snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle rather quickly...with chance of
sleet low. NAM soundings indicate a saturated low level with a
decent dry layer aloft by 09Z...so expect precip to either end or
light drizzle to continue in the northern valley/northwest MN into
the mid morning hours. Total snowfall accumulations further
decreased to a couple of tenths vcnty of BDE.

Westerly winds will be enhanced with decent pressure rise couplet
and weak cold advection...with afternoon gusts tomorrow expected
to be in the 30 to 35 mph range. A breezy day to follow before the
warming trend picks up into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The main challenges in the extended forecast are 1) temperature
variations due to the active zonal pattern aloft and 2)
precipitation chances Sunday and the second half of next week.

Slight chances of light snow will clear out of the northeast zones
Friday night as the system departs to the east. The pressure
gradient should relax as well, allowing for weakening but cooler
northwest winds Friday night. Temperatures will be near normal
Friday night and Saturday.

With the next upper ridge and its associated surface low moving
through the Canadian Plains over the weekend, temperatures will warm
considerably from Saturday to Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day
in the upcoming week with highs in the 40s and 50s. Maintained some
slight chances for rain Sunday afternoon. Could see precip chances
going either way with good forcing due to a sfc boundary but a
strong low level dry layer hinting at more increased cloud cover
than precip. On Monday, highs will still likely be in the upper 30s
to 40s. As the main upper trough swings through Monday into Tuesday,
cooler near normal temperatures return Tuesday into Wednesday.
Monday and Tuesday look to be dry but precipitation chances return
mid week as another system departs from the Rockies into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Some fog has started to form on the back edge of the stratus over
the KDVL area, but it should be short lived as drier air moves in
from the west. That improvement will also be short lived as more
stratus moves in from the northwest later tonight. The second wave
of stratus seems to be overtaking the first so have most staying
MVFR or IFR although KDVL could get a brief break in the next few
hours. Rain will move out of the Red River TAF sites in the next
hour but hang on longer at KTVF and KBJI. Some -RASN mix is not
out of the question at KBJI later overnight. IFR to MVFR clouds
will hang around for much of the day tomorrow as colder air moves
in from the north, although some breaks in the west late in the
period are not out of the question. Winds will shift to the west
in the next few hours as a surface trough moves through, then more
to the northwest by morning. Northwesterly winds will increase to
20 kts or more with gusts near 30 kts tomorrow, then diminish
after sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR



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