Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Updated sky cover as clearing of low clouds to the east has begun
and a tad faster than earlier fcst. Left temps alone for now.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Clouds and resultant temperatures the main challenge. Impacts will
remain minimal. High pressure will influence the region, gradually
shifting to the east. Timing of return flow will probably be what
eventually advects the low stratus clouds eastward. Truthfully,
confidence in when the clouds clear is pretty low, but did delay
the timing to when stronger south/southwest 925mb winds increase.
Also not sure about tonight. Looks like a weak upper wave
propagating just north of the International border could bring
mid-high clouds to the region. But, if these clouds don`t move in
soon enough, fog could develop. At any rate, tonight should see
relatively steady temperatures with increasing clouds (if current
clouds are able to clear).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Monday and Tuesday...Cold high pressure will be retreating to
the east over the Upper Midwest Mon (as upper ridging builds this
way) allowing surface temps to rise closer to average for mid
November. Look for highs mostly in the 30s.

On Tue temps are likely to continue their rise into the upper 30s to
mid 40s as a system marches across the Canadian prairies. The
forecast area will be affected by the trailing cold frontal passage
later Tue into the night. Thermal profiles continue to indicate a
shot of warm air advection at 850 mb resulting in mostly rain with
the potential for some mixed pcpn along the frontal boundary as
colder air works in Tue night. Impacts are expected to be minimal
with residual flurries/snow showers early Wed over the east.

Wednesday through Saturday...Colder air works its way in once
again on Wed with subfreezing highs over virtually the entire
forecast area. The next chance for impactful weather will come Thu
with rain or mixed pcpn chances associated with a more vigorous
wave. Flurries Fri, then clearing and cold for Sat.

As mentioned yesterday, neither of the the possible events described
in these discussions are reflected as anything dramatic by the
ensembles in terms of potential anomalous features.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

As usual for November, a tricky aviation forecast. MVFR cigs over
NW MN slowly clearing from the west but it will likely take quite
some time til it reaches BJI overnight. Fast on its heels will be
mid and high level moisture from the next short wave that will
move across on Monday. The trickest question will be the band of
MVFR cigs in a narrow zone from nr Jamestown to Garrison. GFS 925
mb prog lifts this band of moisture north as sfc winds turn south.
Thus a period of MVFR cigs may occur DVL/GFK mainly early to mid




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