Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240005
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
805 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Warmer air will move in later tonight into Friday as a warm front
passes through. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms exists
with the front, but most of the rainfall will track from west to
north of the region. Above normal temperatures will then be in
store into the weekend with highs Friday well into the 60s, with
50s and 60s over the weekend. A couple of low pressure systems
will move slowly northeast from the southern Plains across our
area over the weekend and early next week bringing occasional
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A warm front will lift northeast through the local area later
tonight in response to low pressure organizing over the Central High
Plains. Temperatures will likely fall off a few degrees this evening
before gradually rising overnight/early Friday in wake of the
frontal passage. Scattered showers may accompany the leading 850-650
theta-e gradient/elevated warm front into nw IN/sw Lower MI this
evening and points east toward or shortly after midnight. Forcing,
other than decent isentropic ascent in 850-650 mb layer, is not all
that impressive so held PoPs in the low-mid chance range. Not all
that impressed with thunder chances but did opt to retain a
slight thunder mention west of I-69 given steep mid level lapse
rates.

Dry and significantly warmer within warm sector tomorrow as frontal
boundary stalls out across southern WI/central MI. How warm temps
get will depend on coverage/duration of any low stratus that
possibly locks in under a dry/subsident mid level layer. Opted for
no changes to highs given uncertainties, though it is worth noting
that latest model guidance overall has trended cooler/cloudier.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An occasionally wet and mild weekend is in store as a closed low
weakens slowly northeast into the Mid MS Valley Saturday and the
lower Great Lakes Sunday. Rain may be a little more widespread later
Friday night/Saturday morning into nw IN/sw Lower MI and into ne
IN/sc MI/nw OH by Saturday afternoon/evening as deep moisture
feed/convergence within leading LLJ core edges in. Precipitation
coverage then trends more showery/scattered in nature later Saturday
night into Sunday underneath the closed low. Chances for thunder are
non-zero, especially during the afternoon hours both Saturday and
Sunday if more significant sfc heating is realized. With that said
decided to keep thunder out of the forecast at this range given
weakening/barotropic look and expectations for mainly cloudy skies.

The next shortwave in this active pacific wavetrain will likely
bring another round of rain to the area later Monday into Monday
night after a brief respite Sunday night/Monday morning. High
pressure then builds in for the middle of next week bringing fair
wx and slightly cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

More lengthy than usual TAFs for northern Indiana with priamry
focus on ramping low level jet that veers with time and need to
provide sufficient detail. Also cover brief 2-3 hour potential for
SHRA later this evening associated with warm frontal ascent and
additionally for strong sswly surface flow and deep momentum
transfer of gusts upr 20 to lwr 30 kt range as surface based lapse
rates steepen within warm sector.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Murphy


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