Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 135 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Cloudy skies will give way to partly cloudy conditions tonight as
a warm front lifts across the region. The passage of this warm
front will be followed by much warmer temperatures Friday
afternoon. This unseasonably warm and dry airmass will persist
across our area throughout the upcoming holiday weekend with highs
from the 50s to lower 60s. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the upper 20s to mid 30s. High temperatures on Friday will
range from around 50 across south central lower Michigan to around
60 across west central Indiana.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Flurries over the nrn portion of the cwa diminishing as inversion
lowers early this morning and low level wrap around moisture
exits the cwa to the se. Considerable high clouds should cont
today/tonight as wk shrtwvs move sse down backside of ern
u.s./canada longwave trof. Convergence along a wk warm front movg
into the area tonight may also cause some low clouds to form.
Overall, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies through the short
term period. These clouds and wk mixing due to cloudiness and
light winds associated with sfc ridge passage will limit warmup to
3-6F above ydays highs despite considerably more warming aloft.
Likewise, only 5-10F diurnal temp falls tonight as waa associated
with incoming warm front strengthens and considerable cloudiness


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temps will warm into the 50s Friday as skies clear behind the warm
front and upr ridge axis moves into IN. A wk cdfnt still expected to
drop into our cwa Sat as shrtwv moves east across srn Ontario.
Gradient mixing ahead of this front Friday night and Sat should
allow for a continuation of the warming trend. Wk caa Sat ngt will
be brief as an even stronger upr ridge builds into the area ahead of
a deep trof movg across the srn Rockies and nrn Mexico Sunday. This
should result in no sgfnt change to aftn highs across our area from
the previous day, except perhaps in the nw where light gradient
should allow for a decent lake breeze.
Strengthening southerly gradient winds Monday ahead of nrn stream
shrtwv movg across south central Canada and closed low pushing
through srn TX should result in even warmer temps and prbly the
warmest day of the upcoming warm spell with highs in the upr 50s
to mid 60s.

As usual, considerable uncertainty in the fcst for days6-7 as medium
range models diverge on handling the split flow pattern. Some
potential for showers Tue and Wed associated with nrn stream shrtwvs
movg east across the grtlks with psbl interaction with closed low
advancing through the gulf states. With more cloudiness, temps will
prbly be a little cooler but still well above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Light south/southwest winds will begin to back more southeasterly
later this afternoon in advance of a warm front that will be
lifting across northern Indiana tonight. Winds will shift more
southerly after warm frontal passage later tonight, and continuing
through this forecast valid period. Mainly warm advection induced
mid and high clouds expected through this period. Some very low
end potential of some patchy MVFR cigs/patchy shallow fog
overnight, but will maintain VFR conditions with the 18Z TAFS with
very low confidence in occurrence. A modest westerly low level
jet will develop tonight, but LLWS criteria is not expected to be
met at this time.





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