Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 310826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A fairly active H5 pattern was noted this evening over the CONUS.
A closed low and trough of low pressure was noted over Montana and
extended south into the Nebraska Panhandle. A second closed low
was located over southwestern Arizona. Further east, a decent
shortwave was located over the Ozarks of Missouri with a tropical
wave located along the South Carolina coast. Off the western coast
of the CONUS, a ridge extended from off the coast of northern
California north into northern British Columbia. At the surface,
low pressure was located over southeastern North Dakota with a
cold front extending south southwest into eastern South Dakota and
central Nebraska. This front was responsible for a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms earlier tonight which impacted western and
north central Nebraska. This line of showers and thunderstorms has
weakened overnight and currently extended from eastern South
Dakota into north central and west central Kansas. Under mostly
cloudy skies overnight, 3 AM CDT temperatures were in the mid to
upper 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Benign weather is expected over the next 24 hours with the main
forecast challenge being temperatures. For today, the upper level
trough of low pressure and closed low currently over eastern
Montana, will move east into North Dakota. A shortwave on the
southern periphery of the low will track across South Dakota and
far northern Nebraska this afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen
considerably over northern Nebraska this afternoon as temperatures
rise into the lower 70s. With a dry boundary layer in place-IE dew
points in the lower 40s, measurable precipitation is not
anticipated at this time. However, some mid level clouds are
possible which may result in some sprinkles during peak heating in
northern Nebraska. For now, will not mention this in the FCST
package as confidence in any of this precipitation aloft making it
to the surface is low. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. The
guidance is largely unchanged from yesterday`s forecast highs this
afternoon, so will utilize persistence for FCST highs today. For
tonight, clear skies and dry air in place, will result in chilly
readings across the forecast area. Lows will generally be in the
40s, however, we could see some upper 30s in the eastern
panhandle. Still well above temps for frost formation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level trough axis pushes east of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Dry and mostly clear conditions are expected with deep
layer subsidence in place. Next shortwave trough moves into the
Northern Rockies on Thursday. Low level winds over the High Plains
become southerly as a lee side low slowly deepens over eastern
Wyoming. Moisture return in the southerly flow will push dewpoints
back into the 50s. NAM/GFS show isolated thunderstorm development
late in the day along a warm front draped near the SD/NE border.
Maintained slight pops in our far northeastern zones for the
afternoon and evening, but again the activity should be isolated
as a ridge axis over the area will limit forcing for ascent. Any
thunderstorm activity will become elevated and focused further
north overnight along the nose of a strengthening LLJ.

An amplified upper level pattern becomes established by the weekend
as a strong ridge builds over the western conus. Guidance has cooled
a little bit over the last 24 hours, likely due to the models
keeping the ridge axis further west than previous runs.
Aforementioned shortwave trough crests the top of the ridge and
dives southeast out of the Dakotas on Friday and sends a cold front
through the state. Convergence along the front increases by mid to
late day as it encounters an increasing unstable airmass over
central Nebraska. Maintained low end pops for our far eastern zones
at this time. The speed of the front may limit chances further west
as it clears much of the area early in the day. Dry and comfortable
conditions are expected through the weekend as an expansive area of
surface high pressure drops south through the High Plains. Afternoon
highs will be near normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move east into
central Nebraska east of a line from KANW to KBBW through the
early morning hours Tuesday. Some lingering showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm will be possible as the cold front moves
across western Nebraska through the early morning. The cold front
will produce strong northwest winds with gusts to 24kts and
possibly some MVFR ceilings. Have carried vicinity showers at both


Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Minor to moderate flooding continues along the North
Platte River from Lisco downstream to the confluence of the North
and South Platte Rivers just east of North Platte. Minor flooding
continues along the main stem Platte River from North Platte to
Brady. River stages along the North Platte River as of earlier this
evening were 4.3 feet at Lisco, 8.8 feet at Lewellen and 6.8 feet at
North Platte. The river stage along the Platte River at Brady was
7.7 feet. River levels are expected to remain steady over the next
several days. Increased water releases from Lake McConaughy would
raise river level along the North Platte River at North Platte.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Martin
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