Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 152331
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO TX...RESULTING IN A CHILLY MID APRIL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE CWA...MOST OBS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAN/N CENTRAL
MONTANA BORDER...WITH ONE TAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW...AND A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MT AND S DAKOTA...WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY MORNING. MOISTURE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA WHERE LOWEST COND PRES DEF LOCATED IN THE 295K SURFACE.
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE OPTED
FOR ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
MODELS PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF AND AGREE AMOUNTS NOT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. ALSO GOING TO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME GUSTY.

SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER A
BRIEF RISE OF TEMPS IN THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH. A
CHILLY MID APRIL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...50S SOUTH. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN
IS IF TEMPS HOLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEBR FROM
WEAK INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH....BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH. REGARDING HIGH
THURSDAY...TRENDED UP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TO NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR
AND NEAR 45 AT ONL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO KANSAS AND NEBR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...AND DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS
EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
FA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RAISE TO THE 60S FRIDAY. MAINLY
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT
ALSO LOOK LIKE ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL BE
AROUND 20000 FT AGL. AFTER MID MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 KTS TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS AROUND
5000 FT AGL WILL SET IN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER
TO AROUND 2500 FT AGL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. VISBYS MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 4SM WITH CIGS DROPPING FURTHER TO AROUND 1500 FT
AGL. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND 18Z WITH BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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