Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291733
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

H5 analysis this morning has a closed low over central
New Mexico with a trough extending south of the low into central
Mexico. Ht. falls in association with the low and trough were most
pronounced from west Texas north into swrn Kansas where 140 meter
falls were noted at Dodge City Kansas. As of midnight, wv imagery
had the low to the southwest of Lubbock Texas. A broad shield of
rain extended north of the upper level low from Oklahoma north into
Kansas and the eastern two thirds of Nebraska. Under cloudy skies, 3
AM temperatures were generally in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Today and tonight: Precipitation chances along with
the potential for fog tonight are the main forecast concerns in the
near term. Upper level low pressure will lift northeast across the
Texas panhandle today, approaching south central Kansas. Favorable
isentropic lift will be present across most of the forecast area
this morning which will be favorable for the continued threat for
light rain. By midday, the threat for light rain will shift into the
eastern forecast area as drier air becomes entrained on the
northwestern periphery of the system. Isentropic lift will weaken
and condensation pressure deficits will increase significantly this
afternoon in the central and western forecast area. This will lead
to a defined back edge of precipitation this afternoon. By 00z the
back edge of precipitation will extend from O`Neill to Hayes Center.
The upper level low will track across southern Kansas tonight. With
the low tracking east overnight, rain chances will shift east of the
forecast area this evening. With the system exiting to the east,
there is some support for fog formation especially across north
central portions of the forecast area. The latest SREF ensembles
indicate a better than 60 percent chance of fog in the sandhills and
north central Nebraska tonight and there is some support from the
statistical guidance as well. That being said, inserted some patchy
fog in the forecast tonight for the sandhills and north central
Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The main focus for this forecast period will be the potential for
precipitation chances over the next week.

There will be several upper level lows that will pass across the
region over the next 7 days bringing chances for rain and even a
rain/snow mix.

Thursday through Friday should remain mostly dry with chances of
rain entering the county warning area by Friday late afternoon. Rain
will continue to spread south and east through the overnight into
Saturday. Rain will continue across parts of the southern forecast
area then exit the region by Sunday morning.

The next chance of rain comes on Monday afternoon...however a few of
the models have been coming in with a drier solution and moving the
rain chances out of the area Monday as they develop a closed off
upper level low farther south and east. After collaboration with
surrounding offices have decided to lower precipitation chances for
Monday. Will continue to monitor the system for Monday as more
adjustments on rain chances may be needed.

Temperatures will remain mild over the next 7 days with highs in the
upper 40s to low 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Showers will remain in the vicinity of KLBF, KBBW and KONL
through late this afternoon, but thereafter ceilings will
gradually lift into the evening. Dryness in the mid levels may
promote the development of fog at KVTN and other north central
Nebraska terminals overnight as winds go light, but fog should be
absent across southwest Nebraska. Overall forecast confidence is
good due to strong model agreement.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Jacobs



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