Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1137 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At 08z...An MCS is currently moving through central into eastern
Nebraska. A mesoscale convective vortex (mcv) is indicated along the
Lincoln and Dawson county line. Temperatures remain mainly in the


Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Showers from early this morning have dissipated as they tracked
out of the Panhandle and encountered drier air. Conditions across
the forecast area will remain dry until late this afternoon and
evening. Hi-res models continue to show the potential for
thunderstorm development along a passing cold front, mainly along
and east of an O`Neill to North Plate line after 21z. Coverage
will likely be isolated as convergence along the front is rather
weak, and the best forcing aloft remains closer to a robust
shortwave trough near the Canadian border. The environment ahead
of the cold front will be quite unstable with SBCAPE above 2500
J/KG, however deep layer shear of only around 20-25 kts will
promote multi-cellular storm modes and keep the severe potential


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Will carry a chance for showers and thunderstorms through 14z as
the mcv continues to lift northeast out of the eastern fa. Another
hot day with high heat indices across much of the area. Highs will
reach the upper 90s south and east of an Ogallala through North
Platte to Ainsworth line. With dewpoints once again in the mid to
upper 60s across the southeast half of the forecast area, the
excessive heat warning will continue with heat indices from around
100 to near 105 in a few locations. A heat advisory to also
continue for far southwest Nebraska. A cold front moving into the
northwest Sandhills will bring strong heating ahead of the front.
MUCapes of 3000-3500 j/kg will exist near and east of a North
Platte through Ainsworth line. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast
to develop along the front by around 21z through 00z. Deep layer
shear is not forecast to be very strong, ranging up to about 25
knots near the cold front where storms are most likely to occur.
There will however be a marginal risk for severe storms, some of
which could be strong to possibly severe east of a Valentine
through Ogallala line.

For tonight...a slight chance for storms across the southeastern
tier of counties will slowly exit the far southeast after midnight.
A few storms could be strong to possibly severe. There could be some
post frontal elevated showers or thunderstorms overnight back across
the western counties as the upper trough exits the region. Have kept
dry conditions however across the northwest. Lows tonight behind the
front will be cooler from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For the most part, the current going forecast will stand for
Sunday. A weak shortwave moving into central Nebraska early Sunday
will result in a few scattered showers across the southern counties
on Sunday morning. A greater chance for showers and thunderstorms
arrives though Sunday afternoon as a front draped across central
Kansas tries to initiate storms to the north of the frontal
boundary. Best chance for storms will once again be in the southern
counties mainly south of a North Platte to Broken Bow line for
Sunday afternoon/evening. Since central Nebraska will be north of
the front on Sunday, temperatures will remain on the cooler side
(highs in the mid to upper 80s). As the front pulls eastward Monday
morning, shower and storm development will come to an end.

Surface high pressure and weak upper level ridging will then take
hold on Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. We will also see a
return of temperatures in the low 90s on Monday. For Monday through
Thursday the trend will be dry conditions in the morning/early
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing after 4pm.
Severe potential with these evening storms is low, however, cannot
rule out an isolated stronger storm, especially Wednesday night when
a cold front will contribute some additional forcing and instability
to the region. High temperatures will continue in the upper 80s and
low 90s through Wednesday. With the cold front passage on Wednesday,
cooler air will filter into the area allowing temperatures to drop
off into the mid 80s for Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A cold front will move southeast across western nebraska this
afternoon. This may trigger a few thunderstorms along the front,
mainly east of the klbf and kvtn terminals. vfr conditions are
forecast today and tonight.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ058-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for



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