Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 271208
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
608 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE PNHDL INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 8 BELOW
AR CDR AND 6 BELOW AT VTN...BBW AND ODX TO 9 AT MCK WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES EXIST. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE FOR FLURRIES
ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...AS H85 TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -10C ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL
TO ABOUT -14C AT ONL. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY VERY SIMILAR ALL AREAS
FROM 23 TO 25 DEGREES. ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTN TO 15 TO
25 MPH WEST TO 10 TO 15 MPH EAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SERN
PNHDL AND SOUTHWEST NEBR. PLACED A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS SWRN
TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. FLURRIES COULD ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE AFTN AS WELL GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WITHIN
MOIST H85-H7 LAYER.

FOR TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
CALIF/NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A FOCUS AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION. ZONAL FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEBRASKA. ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER DECIDED AGAINST A
MENTION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
NOTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL EXCEPT
NERN AREA. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS
KEPT NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST AT AROUND 10 ABOVE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
SURFACE MIXING TO KEEP LOWS UP FROM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST IN
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN AN AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE...WITH PERIODS
OF DEEPER LIFT AS THE STRONGER JET SEGMENTS QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...AS SOME RETURN GULF MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE GULF MOISTURE
FOR THE MOST PART STAYS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS TAKING AIM ON KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT WHERE THE DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE...AND THAT CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY IN KANSAS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ACROSS OUR AREA...AM CONCERNED THAT DRIER AIR
WILL TEND TO KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
POPS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF
NEBRASKA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT
EMERGES. TYPICALLY THIS SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT MODELS DUE HINT THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...JET DYNAMICS WILL
ENHANCE LIFT...AND SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT. WILL INCREASE POPS
JUST A BIT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME...AS H850MB TEMPS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF CLIMB TO NEAR 0C OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THAT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN IF THE SURFACE REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
DIVE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND ALLOWS PACIFIC AIR TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS TODAY AT KLBF...GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR
LATE TONIGHT NEAR OVC025. AT KVTN...SKC TODAY GRADUALLY BECEOMING
SCT060 BY 00Z SAT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG







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