Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 152117
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A fairly low amplitude pattern continues across the
CONUS this morning. High pressure remained anchored over the Gulf of
Mexico with a closed low over northern portions of Hudson Bay in
Canada. A shortwave trough of low pressure extended from northern
Montana into the central Rockies. A secondary shortwave was located
from southern Nevada into southern California. Across the central
Plains, west southwesterly flow extended into the intermountain
west. Abundant mid and high level moisture continued to stream into
the forecast area from the four corners this afternoon. Abundant
cloud cover was present across western and southwestern Nebraska.
Further north, low cloudiness was drifting into northern Nebraska
and was in association with an approaching arctic cold front. As of
early afternoon, this feature was pushing into central portions of
the forecast area. Light snow had begun to push into the Pine Ridge
as of mid afternoon. At 3 PM CST, readings ranged from 20 at Gordon
to 49 at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tonight and Friday...Precipitation chances tonight are
the main forecast challenge. A shortwave trough of low pressure will
track from Wyoming and central Colorado into eastern Nebraska
tonight. Two distinct areas of enhanced mid level lift, in advance
of the shortwave trough, will spread light snow across portions of
the forecast area mainly this evening. The first area will be over
north central Nebraska. Ongoing snow across southern South Dakota,
will clip the northern tier of counties through mid evening. A
secondary area of mid level lift will track from northeastern
Colorado into far swrn Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Inherited
low pops in these areas will remain unchanged from the previous
forecast. Decided to keep pops low though as precipitation chances
are mainly in advance of the warm front, where mainly virga is
expected. Clearing is expected overnight as high pressure builds
into the forecast area. With a significantly drier airmass pushing
into the area overnight, widespread lows in the single digits are
expected. High pressure will track into the lower Missouri valley on
Friday with winds shifting to the south. Cold air will recycle on
the western periphery of the high with only a meager rebound in
temperatures. Highs Friday will be mainly in the 30s with readings
around 40 in the far west, where winds will begin to take on a
southwesterly component Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday night through Sunday...A weak disturbance will track from
the Dakotas and northern Nebraska into the upper Mississippi
valley Friday night into Saturday. This will force a weak
reinforcing shot of cold air to the northeastern forecast area.
Elsewhere, decent westerly winds behind the front will lead to mid
40s in the southwestern forecast area. Across the northeast,
highs will be in the 30s. A warm front will lift across the
forecast area Saturday night, followed by an approaching arctic
cold front late Sunday afternoon. The bulk of the forecast area
will be south of the approaching front Sunday, so highs should
reach the 40s to lower 50s. Highs around 40 are expected across
far northern Nebraska as frontal timing is expected around
noontime.

Sunday night through Thursday...Behind the exiting arctic front
Sunday night, a lead shortwave will spread light snow to the
northwestern and northern forecast area Sunday night into Monday.
This will be followed by a more widespread snowfall as the main
trough of low pressure approaches the central Rockies late Monday
into Monday night. As it stands right now, there is a decent
potential for accumulating snow along and north of Interstate 80 for
Sunday night into Monday night. Highs for Monday, Tuesday and
Wednesday will be well below normal with readings in the 20s. A
possible warm up to the 30s is possible for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Ceilings will continue to lower this afternoon across western and
north central Nebraska as a cold front passes through the area.
MVFR ceilings at the KVTN terminal will persist through the early
evening hours and may even dip below 1000 FT AGL this afternoon.
Lower ceilings will combine with light snow with visbys around a
mile at the KVTN terminal from 20z to 24z this afternoon.
Conditions and ceilings will improve this evening with VFR conds
expected. For the KLBF terminal: Some MVFR ceilings are possible
early this evening with CIGS down to 2000 FT AGL. VFR ceilings are
expected after 03z this evening with clearing expected overnight.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler



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