Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180833
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Today`s temperature forecast uses a blend of the warmest models
which are the HRRR and RAP solutions for highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A Pacific cold front will move through during the day and
the cooler air will lower h850mb temperatures from 20C to 10-15C.

The models show winds aloft weakening this afternoon and the jet-
induced cloudiness across wrn Neb should dissipate. The forecast
then is for mostly sunny or sunny skies.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
upper 30s and to lower 40s tonight. South winds quickly redevelop
tonight which will disrupt the radiational cooling process.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Upper level ridging will amplify ahead of an approaching long wave
trough that will cross the area Friday night into Saturday. This
spells continued warm weather Thursday and Friday, but as the low
level flow becomes more southerly, it won`t be as dry, as moist gulf
air gets pulled northward into the central portions of the country.
By Friday night, models indicate surface dew points will rise into
the mid and possibly upper 50s, with H850mb dew points 12 to 14C.
The moisture will be in place as a cold front and upper trough begin
to move into the region late Friday night. Mid level warm air
advection also increases Friday into Friday night, with decent mid
level destabilization ahead of the front Friday night. Have added
some thunder to account for this late Friday night as the front
pushes quickly through. Most if not all of the shower/thunder
activity will be confined to northern Nebraska.

The cold front and upper trough quickly exit the area Saturday.
Expect breezy conditions in the wake of the cold front with highs
settling back into the lower 60s. Westerly downslope flow will
help boost highs into the upper 60s Sunday, with highs remaining
in the 60s the first of next week beneath dry zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Skies will be partly cloudy overnight with some scattered high
clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Skies will clear Wednesday morning and
remain clear into Wednesday evening. Winds will be from the south
at around 10 KTS overnight, becoming north Wednesday morning and
increasing to 15 to 25 KTS by midday Wednesday. Winds will
diminish to under 10 KTS by 00z Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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