000
FXUS63 KLBF 170446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRY LINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL
STORMS IN DAWES AND NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY DROPPING SOUTH. STORMS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM NEAR HYANNIS
THROUGH TRYON...NORTH PLATTE AND STOCKVILLE. A CORRIDOR OF 70 POPS
THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM
EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO NRN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MID EVENING TO END BY
06Z WITH NO WX/POPS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
WEST OFF THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. HAVE INCREASE LOW CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS MULLEN
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND HAYES CENTER BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST TUESDAY. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO NORTH OF MONTANA BY SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DAILY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE KVTN TERMINAL DURING THE
12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME MONDAY...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL DURING THE 14Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CIGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT AGL.
BROKEN CIGS AON 12000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB