Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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727
FXUS63 KLBF 092332 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NORTH OF THE HUDSON
BAY...AS WELL AS OHIO. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH
OF THE LOWS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA...NWD INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...A TIGHT NWRLY H5 PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED AND EXTENDED
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SSE INTO THE ARKLATEX. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...SSE TO JUST EAST OF NORTH PLATTE AND EAST OF MCCOOK. WEST
OF THE FEATURE...WINDS WERE WESTERLY...WHILE EAST OF THE
FRONT...WINDS FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S...WHILE WEST OF
THE FRONT...30S TO LOWER 40S WERE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

JET STREAK OVERHEAD TODAY...SEPARATING THE TROUGH/COLD AIR TO THE
EAST AND THE RIDGE/WARM AIR TO THE WEST. SOME JET DYNAMICS PROVIDING
A LITTLE LIFT AND AN OCCASIONAL RETURN ON THE RADAR...HOWEVER A DRY
LOWER LEVEL IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THE NOSE OF A SECOND STREAK TO
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEB TONIGHT AND COULD
POSSIBLY SEE SOME MORE RETURNS...HOWEVER HAVE GONE WITH FLURRIES
ACROSS N CENTRAL DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THE DRY AIR TO GENERALLY
WIN.

WARM FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW WITH 850 MB TEMPS
TO SURGE TO AROUND 10C. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH IMPACT THE
DEEP SNOW COVER WILL PLAY INTO KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. THE ECM MOS
GUIDANCE WARMS TEMPS INTO THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH NO
SNOW COVER...HOWEVER DUE TO THE SNOW COVER HAD GONE CLOSER TO THE
MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE LAST FEW DAYS
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT THE 20 TO 25 MPH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND NEARLY FULL SUN TO HELP PUSH TEMPS UP. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THE MAV 50S COULD BE REALIZED...HOWEVER AM SIDING
WITH THE SNOW PACK AND COOLER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MID TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WARM TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC
AIR WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE H85 FRONT LIES DOWN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
AND FORCES THE FRONT WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR. THE NAM HANGS
THIS FEATURE UP ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO BROKEN BOW. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE COLDER GFS/MAV SOLN GIVEN THE THICK SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
WIDELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHEAST. IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER INVOF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. THURSDAY
EVENING...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WILL
TRACK SSE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER SERN SD AND FAR NERN NEBRASKA. ATTM THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME FLURRIES OCCUR IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...FORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEST FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL VARY WIDELY WITH READINGS AROUND
30 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A
CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...FORCING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS FORCED WEST. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT
EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. FOR
NOW...THE BULK OF FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE INVOF THE RETREATING ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY. THE GFS
...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME FZDZ
POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL...TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
SINCE THIS THE FIRST INDICATION OF THIS THREAT IN THE MODELS...WILL
FORGO MENTION OF FZDZ FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND COULDN/T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE CONUS. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY...AND 50S ON TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH NCNTL NEB WEDNESDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS...OVC050-080...MOVE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

NW WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB INCREASE TO 50KT OR SO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN HOWEVER
THERE IS ALSO A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LLVL WS 12Z-18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC



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