Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 231344
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
744 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE TROUBLE SPOT NEAR IMPERIAL HAS MEASURED 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1
TO 2 FOOT DRIFTS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THE SNOW
SHOULD LET UP THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE BEFORE NOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHASE
COUNTY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

KIEN HAS BE 1/2 TO 1 MILE ALL NIGHT AND A CALL TO THE SHER RIFF IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. WITH THE KUDX RADAR INDICATING A
SNOW BAND ANCHORED ON PINE RIDGE AND KIEN AT 1/2 MILE FOR 2 HOURS
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RAISED AND A BLIZZARD WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SRN IA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF BANDED SNOW STRUCTURES HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH ARE WRAPPING WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN
COUNTY...HOLT AND BOYD AND ACROSS CHASE AND HAYES COUNTIES.

KIML HAS BEEN SITTING AT 1 TO 2SM ALL NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS THE 2
INCH SNOW TOTAL THE MODELS ARE GIVING. OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA.

ANOTHER HOT SPOT IS ACROSS PINE RIDGE IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH 6 INCH
TOTALS WHERE CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. EARLY THIS MORNING
THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS BEEN ANCHORED NEAR CHADRON.

THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST PARTS OF HOLT AND BOYD COUNTY COULD GET 4
INCHES. ALL OF THESE TOTALS ARE FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. THE FORECAST
USES A 15 TO 1 RATIO ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
WHERE 12 TO 1 LOOKED REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMER GROUND.

WINDS AT 800 MB INCREASE TO 55 KT THIS MORNING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND
THEN DECREASE THIS AFTN. THE 500M AGL WIND SPEEDS IN ALL MODELS ARE
30 TO 35 KTS WHICH SUPPORT GROUND LEVEL SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. KSNY
GUSTED TO 58 MPH EARLIER WHICH SUGGESTS 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND DO NOT MIGRATE EAST
TODAY DESPITE THE 1030MB CRAIG HIGH WHICH BUILDS IN THIS AFTN.

WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING. FLURRIES
CONTINUE FOR ARE FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
CLEARING ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST. THE CRAIG HIGH SHOULD RIDGE THROUGH
THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

ALL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE AND THESE
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER CHRISTMAS AND INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A BIT
OF A WARM UP WEDNESDAY...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK CONDITIONS
WILL HELP WITH THE WARM UP. WILL NOT GO TOO WARM HOWEVER...AS AT
LEAST SOME SNOW WILL BE ON THE GROUND AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD
HIGHS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE WEST...AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AS MENTIONED...THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER CHRISTMAS AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION NOTED AT BOTH
H500 MB AND H700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODELS AGREE
FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE CENTERS TRACKING FROM NORTHERN COLORADO TO
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CHRISTMAS
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE PANHANDLE
RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH PWATS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO AROUND 0.40 INCHES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH IS ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FARTHER EAST THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER...WITH THE NAM INDICATING ONLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITHIN THE DGZ...SO AM HESITANT TO BRING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SNOW TOO FAR EAST. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HOWEVER...AM
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE WITH DECENT LIFT
THROUGH THE DGZ. SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP THURSDAY
EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THINKING AROUND 2
INCHES AT THIS POINT...MAYBE CLOSE TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT
A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE DRY AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD END UP A BIT FARTHER
EAST...THEN THE SNOW BAND WOULD END UP BEING A BIT FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT...WITH COLD
ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND HIGHS AVERAGING
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SN AND BLSN IMPROVES TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA MOVES EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
IN SN AND BLSN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TONIGHT. VFR IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH MVFR CIGS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 33026G40KT AND DIMINISH AT NIGHTFALL.
LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-022>029-035>037-069-094.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.