Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 071130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 7000 FT AGL AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL...TO 10000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB





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