000
FXUS63 KLBF 282133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK