000
FXUS63 KLBF 151135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME COUPLED FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE LOW
IS CURRENTLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LYING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SD WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN FAR SW
NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND 00Z. ALSO...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE BEST OMEGA
WILL EXIST IN THE NORTH TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTED PRECIP WILL BE RAIN MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY
EVENING. MODELS ARE POINTING TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAY LINGER IN THE EAST A LITTLE LONGER. MODEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AT 850 MB LATE IN THE NIGHT INDICATE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DESPITE THE COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECASTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATER MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF NEBRASKA SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST OFF THE
ROCKIES TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING 12C TO 16C ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THE
SURFACE...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR ALSO PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 PERCENT OR
LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A RESULTANT
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TO WESTERN KANSAS. THE ECMWF MODEL DEEPENS THE THE
SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 987MB ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
NEAR 988MB ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE 700MB LOW TRACK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO DEVELOP THE UPPER LOW A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ALSO FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MOST
OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WHILE QUESTIONS ABOUND AT THIS POINT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS A SAFE BET. NEARLY
ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE 850MB NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AROUND
40KTS...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
LIKELY AT THE SURFACE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE...WITH ARCTIC AIR STAYING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS
TODAY AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONGER AT KLBF COMPARED TO
KVTN. HOWEVER...KVTN WILL SEE THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO START TO DROP BEFORE 00Z AT
KVTN...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DOWN ONLY A FEW HOURS. CIGS COULD
GO EASILY BELOW 1000 FT TONIGHT AT KVTN AS INDICATED BY THE MET
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE MAV KEEPS CIGS AOA 1000 FT. SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED
TO GO JUST UNDER 1000 FT AT KVTN TONIGHT. FOR KLBF...HAVE LEANED
ON THE SREF DATA AND GONE WITH MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KLBF TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. FORTUNATELY...RH VALUES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.
SOME MODELS INDICATE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT
AND WIND GUSTS MAY BE OVER 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ022-056>058-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...KNUTSVIG