000
FXUS63 KLBF 250004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT (6 PM MDT).
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW AT MANY LOCATIONS...WITH A GRADUAL
RECOVERY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS HAD DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
IN MOST LOCATIONS...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 6 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...ROBERG