


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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766 FXUS63 KLBF 032107 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 407 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms 4th of July, some of which may be strong to severe - Additional thunderstorm chances are expected throughout the weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The main concern in the short term will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout 4th of July. A SFC trof will begin to move eastward early Friday and expect storms to initially develop across western Nebraska by early Friday afternoon. Could potentially see some isolated shower to thunderstorm activity across the Panhandle as early as 16z but think the best threat for convective initiation will be after 18z. The mode at the early start of the convection will generally be isolated single cell to potentially supercellular in the early afternoon. There is still some uncertainty on how numerous the development of storms will be, however confidence continues to increase in storm development with little to no cap in place. Confidence is also increasing that a line or broken line of storms is the most likely scenario, as several CAMs continue to align with a linear progression scenario, thus tend to trend towards the main hazard being gusty damaging winds as the strong to severe threat. CAPE values in the 0-3 km are around 1500 J/kg by 18z across most of western and north central Nebraska, however 0-3 shear is weaker around 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon and early evening lapse rates are not too impressive either around 5.5 to 6.5 C/km, thus feel that large hail will be a secondary hazard with damaging winds the main hazard. There will also be a secondary threat for heavy rain as well. Bufkit soundings show long skinny cape and pwats around 1.25 to 1.75 inches, leading to higher confidence in locally heavy rainfall. Expect most of the convection to spread east after 01z, however there is some concern for additional convection after 01z across western Nebraska. At this time confidence is low as only a few CAMs are showing that convection and not sure the environment will remain favorable after daytime heating is lost for any late evening/overnight storms but will have to monitor how storms developing during the day to see if the environment will remain unstable. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Upper level Quasi-zonal flow is expected into early next week before a ridge begins to develop across the western CONUS by early next week. Temperatures will remain generally near to slightly above average with highs in the 80s. A weak SW trof moves through Saturday with chances for showers Saturday evening into the overnight. After Saturday there will be nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy over the next 24 hours, out of the south, around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25kts. Mid level clouds will move in late Friday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Gomez