Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT 07Z. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THEN...
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS (INDICATED WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE
DERIVATIVE ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES). THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND LIFTS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB
(300K)...BUT FRONTOLYSIS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE JET CUT THE LIFT
OFF QUICKLY. AS A RESULT...ONLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS A SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...AS THE BEST
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH. AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ENERGY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MIGHT NOT
BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MOVES IT INTO THE THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...AND EMERGES THE
ENERGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE AREA. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
STATE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF -RASN OUT
OF THE KVTN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN






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