Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Minimal sensible weather concerns the next 24 hours. Sunny skies
are expected today followed by high clouds moving in late
afternoon through tonight from the southwest. Highs are forecast
from the mid 70s to around 80, about 15-20 degrees above seasonal
normal values. Latest satellite imagery shows predominantly thin
high clouds across much of the Sandhills and northern NEB. Calm-
light and variable winds prevail outside the Sandhills at the
top of the hour, elsewhere 5-10 MPH light breezes are generally
present with winds pushing near 15 MPH in the northeast Panhandle.

Latest BUFKIT soundings and time-height displays show scant
moisture in the column with a dry lower troposphere. However, high
clouds are expected to increase by late this afternoon-tonight.
Otherwise, warmer highs will prevail today compared to yesterday.
Temperatures increase aloft at low-levels with warmer 850 hPa
temperatures in place. 850 hPa temperatures overhead forecast to
be near-exceed 90% moving average/percentile rank per SPC
Sounding Climo at LBF with temps peaking about 18-19 C. The warmer
temps aloft combined with excellent insolation and sufficient
mixing should be conducive for highs approaching/reaching 80 F at
some locations. Meanwhile, modest southerly breezes develop this
afternoon as surface lee-side trough sharpens in vicinity of the
Laramie and Front ranges. Strongest winds anticipated in far
southwest NEB, eastern Panhandle, and northwest NEB today with
gusts peaking 25-30 MPH. Expect decent momentum transfer here as
seen in BUFKIT profiles wherein the mean mixed-layer winds are
notably higher. Quiet conditions continue then overnight, albeit
with very mild lows (forecast 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal
values). Lows forecast in the mid to upper 40s in the eastern
Panhandle to mid 50s in extreme north central NEB.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The area will be under the influence of upper level ridging Friday
ahead of an approaching long wave trough that will cross the area
Friday night into Saturday. Expect another warm day Friday ahead of
the approaching upper trough and associated cold front. The big
story Friday into Friday night will be the winds. A tightening east-
west surface pressure gradient will develop as pressure lowers along
the lee of the Rockies. As a result gusty south winds will develop,
with gusts potentially approaching 40 mph to the east of Hwy 83
during the afternoon hours Friday. Winds will remain gusty to the
east of Hwy 83 Friday night due to a strong southerly low level jet
and mixed boundary layer. Low level moisture will be on the increase
as gulf moisture quickly spreads north into the region. This should
help alleviate fire weather concerns somewhat as lowest relative
humidity will range from 30 to 50 percent, with the highest values
in eastern areas. With the moisture increase and some elevated
instability Friday night, have continued to mention at least a
slight chance of a shower or weak thunderstorm across northern
Nebraska.

The cold front and upper trough quickly exit the area Saturday.
Expect breezy conditions in the wake of the cold front, with highs
settling back into the lower 60s. Westerly downslope flow will help
boost highs into the upper 60s to near 70 Sunday. A cold front
followed by a deepening upper trough across the Great Lakes region
will cool highs back into the 50s Tuesday moderating to the 60s
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions through the period.

The forecast period will see an exiting upper level ridge with a
trough approaching the PacNW and northern CA. This pattern will
result in broad height falls across the central Rockies and High
Plains through Friday. A separate upper PV anomaly will move
across the southern Plateau into the southern Plains and high
level moisture will spread northward into NE leading to a period
of mid to high level cigs, but won`t be associated with precip
this far north due to limted forcing and dry low levels.

This pattern will support an increase in southerly winds later
today and as the low levels decouple tonight a low level jet will
develop and result in low level wind shear which has been placed
in the forecast. The typical diurnal trend will range from just
after sunset to an hour or so after sunrise. Otherwise few if any
impacts expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Stoppkotte



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