Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

H5 analysis from earlier tonight, has a tandem of upper
level disturbances extending from the western Great Lakes southwest
into the southwestern CONUS. The southwestern shortwave was located
over southwestern New Mexico. Current satellite imagery now has
this feature roughly near Albuquerque New Mexico. Elsewhere, high
pressure was anchored over the western Caribbean while a positive
tilted ridge extended from northern California into Western Wyoming.
At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure, extended from south
central South Dakota, into the eastern third of Nebraska. Winds east
of this feature were from the southwest or south, while west of this
feature, winds were generally from the west. Skies were generally
clear with the exception of some cloudiness beginning to push into
southern Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST, ranged from 21 at
Ogallala to 33 at O`Neill.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Today and tonight: Temperatures today, followed by
fog potential in the east tonight are the main forecast challenges.
For today, the upper level low over New Mexico will lift to the
northeast into western and central Kansas. In advance of this
feature, mid and high level cloudiness will push into southern, then
eastern Nebraska by afternoon. Across central and western portions
of the forecast area, mostly clear skies are expected this
afternoon. With H85 temps in the high single digits and full sun
expected, highs will reach the lower to middle 50s. For tonight: The
surface trough of low pressure will remain anchored across central
Nebraska. East of this feature, southerly winds will push boundary
layer moisture northward from central and eastern Kansas tonight.
The latest NAM12, WARW and SREF indicate increasing boundary layer
moisture advection across eastern portions of the forecast area
overnight. SREF ensembles overnight have a 80+ percent probability
of visbys less than a mile east of a line from Maywood, to Maxwell,
to Broken Bow and O`Neill line. That being said, went ahead and
introduced fog to the forecast east of this line after 06z tonight.
With southerly winds expected to be in the 10 to 15 MPH range
overnight in the east, dense fog is not anticipated ATTM. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s in the east where
fog is expected, to the teens and lower 20s in the central
and western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Quiet conditions prevail across north central Nebraska through
Friday as a well developed ridge remains settled across the central
US. Have introduced some fog to the forecast for Friday morning as
boundary layer moisture increases across south central Nebraska.
Otherwise, a dry forecast will continue for Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures rise well into the 40s both days as well.

The next minor system arrives Saturday. At this time, temperatures
are forecasted to remain warm enough to keep precipitation as all
rain east of a North Platte to Ainsworth line. West of this line,
cooler temperatures will filter into the area allowing precipitation
to change over to a rain/snow mix or even all snow in some locations
especially at night when temperatures drop into the upper 20s.
Little accumulation is expected though and the system quickly moves
out of the area by midday Saturday.

High pressure returns for the remainder of the weekend and first
part of the week. The next major winter system potential occurs on
Monday night through Wednesday morning. While the system is still
several days out, models are currently showing the system tracking
over Nebraska with the potential to drop several inches of snow.
Will continue to evaluate this system over the next couple days as
the models get a better handle on the track and intensity before
deciding to issue any headlines.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Visual flight rules over western Nebraska through Wednesday.
Surface high pressure will bring mostly clear skies and winds
under 10kts to western Nebraska through Wednesday.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Power is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.