Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200923
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

At 09z...The leading edge of a cold front extended from Phillip SD
through Ogallala and Imperial. A few showers are lifting northeast
through the panhandle. Temperatures still in the mid to upper 40s
behind the front, while still holding in the mid 50s at Broken Bow
and O`Neill. Skies remained mostly cloudy across western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Today...An upper level trough and Pacific cold front will advance
quickly east across the region today, bringing sunny skies to most
of western Nebraska by 18z. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will
occur to start the day across the west, and spread quickly to
eastern areas by late morning. 850mb temperatures will be cooler
today behind the Pacific front at 6-10C, however with sunny skies
and deep mixing, highs in the 60s will be achieved.

Tonight...Milder air aloft will again overspread the region as 850mb
temperatures rise to 10-12C. Winds will become light southwest this
evening, and remain decoupled across the southwestern half of the
forecast area. For this reason, lows in these areas will dip into
the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lows only fall into the upper 30s
across much of north central Nebraska. Skies to remain mostly clear
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

A ridge of high pressure will continue across the central US
through Wednesday resulting in dry and continued warm conditions
across Nebraska. High temperatures will easily rise into the low to
mid 70s as plenty of sunshine and warm air advection makes its way
into the region. Westerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph are also
possible on Tuesday. For Wednesday, increasing clouds will help to
limit high temperatures. However, despite increased sky cover across
western Nebraska, highs will still rise into the low to mid 60s
across much of the forecast area.

Low pressure develops across the central Plains on Thursday
resulting in the next chance of precipitation across the area.
Precipitation will start early Thursday morning as snow north of
highway 92. As precipitation spreads southward on Thursday, warming
temperatures will also allow precipitation to change over to rain.
Rain will be the main concern for most of Thursday until the sun
sets and temperatures begin to cool once again. As temperatures
fall, rain will transition into a rain/snow mix and eventually all
snow across the northwest first and slowly migrate southeast. While
rain chances will cut down on overall snow totals, locations north
of highway 2 could still see total accumulations in the 3 to 6 inch
range. Snow covered roadways are likely which will result in
dangerous driving conditions on Thursday night. As one moves
southward, totals will decrease. The I-80 corridor is expected to
see totals around 1-2 inches. Uncertainty in the track still
remains for this system, with the biggest concern being the location
of the rain/snow line. Where this line eventually sets up will have
a big impact on snow totals across the region.

Weak high pressure returns for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
return to below normal as highs only rise into the low to mid 30s
during the day. The next potential snow system arrives on Sunday.
Confidence is low in this system and therefore, only put in low
chance pops (near 35 percent) at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

MVFR cigs have move into scntl Neb and are expected to lift north
affecting areas east of Hwy 183.

The line of showers in the Neb Panhandle will move east overnight
on Monday morning. The RAP and HRRR models show little
development and would generally keep the line as showers and lift
them northeast before 12z.

The NAM develops the line and suggests showers moving very slowly
east overnight and Monday morning. This would affect KVTN 14z-
16z. The forecast is uncertain at this point but the NAM has shown
skill with this system and is slightly favored.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Elevated fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon across
the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska. This includes the
southern half of fire zones 204 and 210. Breezy northwest winds 15
to 25 mph will occur behind a cold front which will advance through
zone 209 by late morning. Winds will begin to diminish from west to
east during the mid to late afternoon hours. Minimum RH values are
forecast to fall to near 18 percent in the southern half of zone 204
and 210, with duration however not expected to exceed two hours. Due
to the marginal RH and limited duration, along with gusts 20 mph or
less during peak heating, critical fire weather conditions are
unlikely.

On Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions continue as high
temperatures reach the low to mid 70s. West winds will increase to
10 to 20 mph across southwest Nebraska and 15 to 30 mph across north
central Nebraska. Minimum RH values could approach 15 percent and
winds could gust to 25 mph or higher across southern areas. If this
occurs, critical fire weather conditions could develop.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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