Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN ON FRIDAY.  IN ADDITION...THE THREAT OF EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PLEASE SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE...LEADING TO MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S...THE COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS AND TO THE EAST AS A
GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH REMAINS.  WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.  A FEW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  MADE ONLY MINOR REVISIONS TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONG.  OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN AS A MOISTURE STARVED AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COUPLE VERY MILD DAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WILL BE
SATURDAY...WHEN NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SIGNALING HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL PROMOTE GOOD VERTICAL MIXING...AND H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 18C
/PER ECMWF/ GIVE CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD PUSH HIGHS TO THE 70 DEGREE
MARK ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FORECASTED HIGH AT
NORTH PLATTE IS RIGHT AT 70 DEGREES...AND THIS IS JUST SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1932 OF 70 DEGREES.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL END ABRUPTLY SUNDAY...AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CORE OF THE
COLD AIR WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA. HERE H850 MB TEMPS NEARING -30C WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW ZERO. ACROSS OUR AREA THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT HIGHS MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND 30 DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE MONDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS RECYCLED BACK NORTH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FORTUNATELY THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COME AND GO QUICKLY...AS WARMER
AIR MOVES EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

PATCHY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY APPROACHING 100 PERCENT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. HOWEVER FG/BR WILL BE
LOCALIZED. WEST WIND 260-290 WILL INCREASE TO 12-16KT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF LARGE FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.  DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND PROMOTE
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  THESE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH TD/S IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WOULD
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM RH OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SANDHILLS.  WIND SPEEDS
FRIDAY ARE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THE STRONGEST GUST POTENTIAL SHOWN
TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...REMOVED FROM THE POTENTIALLY
CRITICALLY LOW RH.  THUS AT THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...IT MAY BE CLOSE THOUGH.  THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED MIXING...IF GREATER MIXING IS
REALIZED...STRONG /NEAR CRITICAL GUSTS/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  SATURDAY IS INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION
TO ZONAL WITH THE APPROACH OF A PAC NW TROUGH.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE FOR
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL PROMOTE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CROSS MOUNTAIN GRADIENT FROM
KCAG TO KLBF IS SHOWN TO APPROACH 10MB AT TIMES...AND WHEN IN THESE
DOWNSLOPING REGIMES...THE MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE...USUALLY
SUGGESTING A WETTER/COOLER BIAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
REGARDLESS...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT AND H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IF SUFFICIENT MIXING OCCURS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THESE
FORECAST HIGHS WOULD PROMOTE MINIMUM RH OF 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH.  AT THIS POINT...NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT RFW CRITERIA IS
NOT CERTAIN.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE HEADLINE AT THIS POINT.
LASTLY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...IF RANGE FIRES WERE ESTABLISHED LATE SATURDAY...THE
WIND SHIFT WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC TO CONTROL EFFORTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS






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