Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 182344 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The upper level disturbance moving through Cntl CA this afternoon
should close off at h700mb across Ern WY by 12z Wednesday morning.
The low would then jog south of the Black Hills and then resume
course moving through SD Wednesday. The result is a period of warm
air advection tonight which should produce showers and thunderstorms
across Nrn Nebraska. A model blend was used for this forecast. The
RAP and HRRR models seem to be too dry given the moisture and
forcing tonight. These models were too conservative with the MCS
which moved through Ncntl Neb Monday night.

The warm air advection and resulting instability/CAPE in the NAM and
GFS models...500 in the GFS to 1750 J/KG in the NAM...will support
thunderstorms. The NAM suggests a few strong to severe storms
capable of large hail.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to move through Wrn Neb Wednesday
afternoon. This should clear out the skies with temperatures rising
into the 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover across Nrn Neb would hold
highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A storm off the Oregon Coast is progged to move east and drop
through WY Thursday night. The model- track of the storm through
the Cntl High plains and KS Friday varies by about 200 miles. The
NAM...SREF and Canadian solns are north favoring rainfall across
much of Nebraska while the GFS...GEF and ECM are farther south
favoring KS for the best rainfall. The forecast is a blend of
solns at this point which results in a storm track in the middle
of the model envelope. All models suggest likely rainfall across
Swrn Neb.

No thunderstorms are expected with the system. Nebraska will be on
the north side of the upper low and K indices are in the 20s in the
GFS and NAM. No elevated instability/CAPE was indicated in the NAM.

The rest of the forecast is dry. Another storm will track north of
the area Monday but no moisture return was indicated in the wake of
the storm Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Front lying to south over northwest Kansas tonight with stratus
developing to the north of the front across western Nebraska.
Storm system will move across the Dakotas tonight with
thunderstorms developing over mainly northern Nebraska after 06z.
Some isolated showers in high based aoa 110kft mid clouds moving
over northwest Nebraska early this evening. Maybe some virga. Main
show after midnight and will mainly affect KVTN as upper low moves
across the Dakotas. Showers and thunderstorms to continue into
Wednesday morning with MVFR cigs moving out of western Nebraska
through the afternoon.




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