Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 201743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1143 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

H5 analysis from earlier tonight had low pressure over
western Hudson bay with a trough of low pressure extending to the
southeast into the Mid Atlantic states. West of this feature, low
amplitude flow extended from the Mississippi valley west to the
Pacific Coast. North of this flow, a trough of low pressure extended
from northern portions of the NW Territories south into northern
British Columbia and southwest to the eastern Pacific. Current
satellite imagery, has a broad plume of upper level moisture
streaming across the northwestern CONUS into the northern plains
overnight. The leading edge of this moisture and high cloudiness is
now approaching the Nebraska Panhandle. At the surface: Low pressure
was located over southern Saskatchewan with a trough of low pressure
extending south into eastern Colorado. Winds were light from the
west and southwest overnight and skies were generally clear.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CST ranged from 22 at North Platte to 37 at


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Today and Tonight...Over the next 24 hours the threat
for precipitation overnight along with fire weather concerns, are
the main forecast challenges in the near term. For today: High level
cloudiness will continue to stream into the forecast area today from
the west and generally utilized the GFS20 H300-H250 RH field for
cloudiness today. This seemed to initialize the best for the current
cloud cover off to the west currently. That being said, increased
cloud cover for today which will have some impacts to high
temperatures. Was a little pessimistic about guidance highs today,
in particular the MAV guidance which was warmer than ECM and the
coolest MET guidance. Trended highs today toward the cooler MET
guidance based on anticipated cloud cover. This led to highs a
degree or two cooler than the inherited forecast. With slightly
cooler temps expected this afternoon, winds should slightly lower
and minimum RH slightly higher this afternoon. Realize critical fire
weather conditions may be briefly met in the extreme sw CWA mid
afternoon, but with temps and winds trending lower and min rh
trending higher, couldn`t come up with more than an hour or two with
near critical fire weather conds in the far sw this afternoon. That
being said, will forgo any fire headlines today. Will continue to
hit the heightened fire threat in the HWO however. For tonight: A
strong cold front will approach northern Nebraska around 06z,
passing through the forecast area overnight. Behind the front, weak
instability and mid level frontogenesis will develop from the Black
Hills southeast into the northwestern sandhills overnight. With
model agreement from the NAM12, WARW and 4 KM NAM soln, decided to
introduce some low pops from the Pine Ridge southeast into the
central Sandhills overnight. Based on moisture cross sections taken
through the northwestern CWA, we will have some dry air to overcome
initially, so any QPF will be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Will hold with the going dry and quiet forecast through next
weekend. High pressure will build into the region on Tuesday and
stick around through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The
only minor concern for the extended period is the chance for
increasing winds on Tuesday. Have increased winds slightly behind
the front on Monday night. Expect winds to gust up to 30 mph by
Tuesday afternoon. Strongest winds will generally be east of US-83.
North central Nebraska will also experience cooler temperatures on
Tuesday behind the departing front. Highs Tuesday will range from
the upper 40s across southwest Nebraska down to the low 30s across
north central Nebraska.

Dry weather continues the rest of the week with temperatures
returning into the 60s through Friday. A frontal passage will track
across the region on Friday night. No precipitation is expected with
this frontal passage, however, cooler temperatures will return for
next weekend. High temperatures for next Saturday and Sunday drop
back into the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows dense cirrus moving southeastward
across western and north central NEB. VFR conditions currently
prevail with west winds, gusty across far western NEB and the
eastern Panhandle. Winds will be breezy today, strongest in the
west. A cold front advances across the area tonight with winds
becoming northerly. Late tonight ceilings will lower from the
northwest across western NEB becoming low-end VFR (less than 7
kft) at some terminals. Otherwise, low- end chances for precip
exist late tonight-early morning tomorrow across northern NEB.


Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Latest trends and guidance support critical fire weather
conditions developing across the southeast Panhandle and far
southwestern NEB late this morning through mid afternoon thus a
Red Flag warning was issued. This is due to gusty west winds
combining with dry conditions. Elsewhere, sub-critical fire
weather conditions are possible across the western Sandhills and
the northeast Panhandle today.

Cooler temperatures and higher afternoon humidities will prevail
tomorrow as a cold front pushes through the area tonight.


Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ204-210.



SHORT TERM...Buttler
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