Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 050850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK



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