000
FXUS63 KLBF 202307
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT H5 RIDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW
UNDERNEATH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE 999MB LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AT 6 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS...AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS EXITING SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AROUND 7 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS PUSHING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A
MINIMUM. OVERALL...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE WISE VERY COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 50S
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EC
BRINGS IN A COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH ALL OF THE
WAFFLING WITH THIS PRESENT SYSTEM 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN
CLOSER WITH THE EARLIER EC SOLUTIONS. CLOUDS CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE GONE WITH COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE
FOR THE COOP STATIONS WITH +3C AT 850MB. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES. WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
AGAIN GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50KTS AND LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER. GULF
OPENS WIDE AND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SENDING STRONG WAVES THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SAT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ABUNDANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON
TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED...WILL
HANDLE IT WITH A PROB 30 GROUP FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 18Z
TUES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB