Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING QUICKER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AS KVTN IS CURRENTLY
DOWN TO 18 DEGREES. SO HAVE AMENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A FASTER ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR INTO ACCOUNT.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. RADAR ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT
SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE PINE RIDGE. FORCING WANES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RADAR ECHOES WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







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