Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
000
FXUS63 KLBF 160822
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures with a gusty northerly wind today.
- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns exist today
and again Sunday due to the combination of low humidity and
gusty winds to 30 mph.
- Above normal temperatures Monday though Wednesday with a
slightly cooldown Thursday and Friday. A slight chance for
rain or snow showers, mainly Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a near stationary
closed low pressure system spinning over the Desert Southwest.
Further northwest of this feature, upper-level high pressure was
pushing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A potent upper-level
shortwave was dropping southeast out of Manitoba into the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over
southwest Nebraska, extending across the northern and central
Plains. The upper-level system over Manitoba is vertically
stacked with surface low pressure noted with an attendant cold
front extending west-southwest, advancing towards the
US/Canadian border. Outside of some high clouds passing by,
clear skies prevail across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. As of 3 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 49 at
Imperial to 54 degrees at Ainsworth.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
For today, the closed low over southern Ontario Canada will push
a weak cold front southward across the area. Deep mixing will
compensate for H850 temperatures only from 0C to 6C late this
afternoon. Highs from the low 50s north central to 55 to 59
south. Northerly winds behind the front will range from 15 to 25
mph sustained with frequent gusts to 30 mph near and east of
Valentine through Broken Bow. With dewpoints falling to 15 to 20
degrees by late afternoon, the combination of gusty winds and
low humidity will bring elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions. Additional details found in the Fire Weather
Section.
Tonight, a reinforcement of colder air will move in overnight.
Winds diminish to 5 to 15 mph. Lows overnight will fall into the
low to mid 20s, coolest across northern Nebraska.
On Sunday, weak colder air advection through the morning.
Bufkit soundings indicate deep mixing up to H7 and with mostly
sunny skies, went slightly above the latest NBM using a 40
percent blend of the ADJMAV. Highs only from 40 to the low 40s
northeast, to the upper 40s and low 50s southwest. Northwest
winds will solidly range from 15 to 30 mph with occasional gusts
up to 35 mph possible. Much drier air will move into the area
with dewpoints falling to 5 to 15 degrees in the afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low humidity will bring elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions. Additional details
found in the Fire Weather Section.
Sunday night, surface high pressure will become centered over
central and eastern Nebraska. With a very dry airmass, lows
of 15 to 20 are forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
On Monday, an amplified upper ridge will extend over the western
U.S. including British Columbia Canada. A weak closed low is
expected to remain across western Arizona. Through Wednesday
this upper ridge will flatten out across the Western U.S. as the
upper low/trough finally gets kicked eastward across the Four
Corners Region toward eastern New Mexico and the Texas
panhandle. There will be a warming trend, with highs Monday
upper 50s to lower 60s Monday to the mid 60 by Wednesday. Cooler
air may back southwestward into the area on Wednesday, as shown
by the 00Z ECMWF. Confidence is low however in this occurring.
With dry conditions and limited moisture and above seasonal
temperatures, fire weather concerns will remain elevated
through Wednesday.
Thursday into Friday, the upper flow will remain quasi-zonal
across the region as an upper trough deepens across the Pacific
Northwest. There will be a slight chance for rain or snow showers,
mainly Thursday night into Friday, although deterministic
models agree that mainly dry conditions will persist. While
North Dakota across the Great Lakes will be notably cooler,
western Nebraska should remain in the warmer temperature regime,
with highs forecast to reach 55 to 65 on Thursday and 50s
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A cold front will make it`s way south through the area early
this morning. Winds will shift to the north as the front passes.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail otherwise.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today and
Sunday. A weak cold will drop south today and bring gusty
northerly winds. The highest wind gust to 30 mph will occur
across Cherry County east across north central Nebraska south
into Custer County. These areas will see lowest humidity fall
to 20 to around 25 percent for a few hours.
On Sunday, a reinforcing cold front will bring cooler
temperatures in the 40s, with low 50s far southwest. A much
drier airmass will lead to lowest humidity falling to 20 to 25
percent combined with northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph.
Despite minimum RH not reaching critical values of 15 to 20
percent, any fire starts this afternoon or on Sunday could
spread quickly.
Elevated fire weather conditions should persist Monday through
Wednesday as highs reach into mid 50s and 60s.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg