000
FXUS63 KLBF 092022 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.CORRECTION FOR TYPO...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

UPDATE TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219 IN THE CURRENT RFW. THE
20Z KIML OBSERVATION CAME IN WITH 30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND RH OF JUST
12 PERCENT. GIVEN THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AND THE FACT THAT A RANGE FIRE IS ONGOING NEAR
KIML...ITS BEST TO HAVE THE EXTENSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST HIGHS OF THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WESTERLY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ADVECTS H85 T/S OF 15C OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CWA.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING DECK OF MID/HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS HOWEVER...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE FULL HEATING POTENTIAL
BY A DEGREE OR TWO....BUT NONETHELESS...LOWER 70S SURE IS NICE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE SFC WIND IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL LIMITED MOMENTUM IN
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND THE DETERMINISTIC SUGGEST THE CRAIG CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATIVE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ON THE PLAINS.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.  WILL NEED
TO WATCH HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER /GREATER THAN 30KTS/
MOMENTUM ABOVE H75 FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE SE THROUGH EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY.  IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS...STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS...FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS A SMALL UPTICK IN WINDS SPEEDS WOULD PUT US ONCE AGAIN
CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FRAGMENTED LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER A COLORADO-NEBRASKA-KANSAS TRIPLE POINT AND CROSS
THE PLAINS ALONG THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL GIVE
STRONG SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT (REFLECTED TO SOME EXTENT IN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE OF THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES. THE LOWER PART OF
THE LIFT LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH SATURATION DEFICITS OF 115-130MB...
BUT THE LAYER MOISTENS UP AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH. THE MEAN
TEMPERATURE OF THE LOWEST 2KM STARTS OFF BEING ABOVE 0C AND COOLS TO
LESS THAN 0C LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE
COOLING AND PHASE CHANGE IS STILL A BIT OF A TOSS-UP LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A CROSS-SECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL BE 12-21Z AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
15-00Z. OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTH DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH IN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ONCE MORE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NEBRASKA. AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE APPROPRIATE AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OPEN TERMINALS SUCH AS KTIF...KVTN
AND KBBW WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 24KTS IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...LEAVING A LIGHT WEST DRAINAGE WIND OF 8KTS OR LESS FOR
MOST TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FIRE ZONES
204...206...AND 209 INTO EARLY EVENING.  STRONG ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY.  WHILE WIND
GUSTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 MPH UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES EARLY THIS EVENING.  THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING...WITH THE EXPIRATION EXPECTED AT 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING.

THE THREAT OF EXTREME WILDLAND FIRE GROWTH TO REMAIN HIGH ON MONDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR THE SEASON.  THAT
BEING SAID...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THIS
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS.
ATTM...THE LOWEST RH OF 20 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LESS LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA /OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 204 & 206
AND ALL OF 210/.  PEAK GUST POTENTIAL OF 20 MPH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED WHERE RH WILL BE LOWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS