000
FXUS63 KLBF 011145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
A RIDGE TO THE WEST...PLACING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
EXITING SE NEB...WITH THE NEXT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS HAVING DROPPED IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...COOLEST IN THE RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PLEASANT START TO AUGUST WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. WATCHING THE
SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS RESEMBLES
THE WAVE WE HAD YESTERDAY...HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.
SIMILAR STORM PARAMETERS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING NEG LI/S...NEAR 1K
J/KG OF CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASE CLOUDS BEHIND THE WAVE.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT OR A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAST THE WAVE EXITS AND CLOUDS DECREASE. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S...OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS
TIMING OF WAVES AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS STRUGGLING. FOR
THIS...ONLY MINIMAL REVISIONS TO THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WERE
IMPLEMENTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.  DESPITE
WEAK FORCING WITH THE ANOMALY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...WITH THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK
UPGLIDE.  LIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD/T RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS AS RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
NUDGE EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT UNDER A GREATER INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS AS THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WARM...WITH MID 60S
PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FIXED BEYOND
MONDAY...BUT BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL
PV ANOMALIES SUPPRESS THE WESTERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE AND EVENTUALLY
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE REMAINS A GOOD PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING GOOD MID
LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
INTERESTING TONIGHT IS THAT THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT PWATS
WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN A 1.75" OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE 3 SD ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE
BLENDED PROCEDURE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 40% TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SANDHILLS...WHICH IS DEEMED
REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY AS OF LATE.  THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LLJ TUESDAY EVENING WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF...WHICH MANY WOULD WELCOME AFTER ENDURING A RAIN
STARVED JULY. /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. KVTN HAS
REPORTED 6SM AND COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 4SM OR 5SM...AND DID
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 12Z TO 13Z. LOWER VISIBILITIES COULD
IMPACT AREAS FROM KANW TO KBBW TO KONL. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW LINE. DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR IMPACT AT KVTN...WITH NO MENTION IN THE KLBF
TAF...EXPECTING IT TO BE EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

JULY HAS ENDED AS THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR NORTH PLATTE WITH LEE
BIRD FIELD ONLY RECORDING 0.14 INCHES. THIS NOT ONLY BROKE THE
RECORD...IT SHATTERED THE RECORD. SECOND PLACE ON THE LIST IS JULY
OF 1901 WHICH RECORDED 0.34 INCHES. THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DURING THE MONTH...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DID NOT OCCUR. VALENTINE ONLY RECORDED 0.58
INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 8TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. THIS IS A
CONSIDERABLE CONTRAST TO JUNE WHICH WAS VERY WET. NORTH PLATTE HAD
THEIR SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 8.75 INCHES...AND
VALENTINE SAW THEIR WETTEST ON RECORD WITH 8.63 INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRY MONTH...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH
WAS 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
CLIMATE...MASEK