Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 020859
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE LOW ORBITERS MICROWAVE SENSORS
INDICATED A PLUME OF 35-45MM INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 25-30MM INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL ALSO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA
BORDER. WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE...FORCING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BE VERY WEAK...PROBABLY NOT ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH...
SOME CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG A DRY LINE IN NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO BE HIGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY
183...WHERE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH DUE TO A POTENT PV ANOMALY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE DOWN RIGHT
COOL /HIGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND A MIX OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR OOZING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND AS MENTIONED EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES NOT LOOKING GREAT AT THIS POINT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
LOW FOG...WHICH COULD IMPACT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT THIS AT KLBF AROUND 12Z...AND PATCHY SHALLOW MIST/FOG HAD
FORMED OVER THE FIELDS NEAR LBF. SO...WE WILL INCLUDE BR MENTION
WITH 5SM IN VTN AND 3SM BCFG AT LBF. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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