Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 050428
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AFTER MID EVENING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NAM MODEL
INDICATES AROUND 1200 J/KG COMPUTED CAPE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST...WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCATED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. SOME DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT SHEAR IS
WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE STORMS BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS A PLUMB OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALOFT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THIS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN LOCATED WEST OF BAHA.

OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN EXTENDED MODELS AND WITH THE BLOCKING
PATTERN DOWN STREAM HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION.
ALSO MODELS NOT COMING IN AS COLD IN THE EXTENDED WITH SOURCEREGION
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT.
COOL FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
COOLER AIR LAGS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH AND 90S SOUTH.
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
DEEPENS. HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND MODELS INDICATING SOME GOOD QPF AMOUNTS FOR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG STALLED OUT BOUNDARY.
HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS SLOWER WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SOME INTO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
BEFORE 15Z IS LOW. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS 30 PERCENT OR LOWER WHICH DOES
NOT INSPIRE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL OCCUR AT LBF OR VTN.
THE BEST CONSENSUS AMONG THE EVENING MODEL RUNS WOULD BE THAT THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE 18-01Z SATURDAY. WE HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THAT BY USING PROB30 IN THE FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN 19-24Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.