Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1158 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

At H5 upper trough coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest Large
closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly zonal flow
over the lower 48 with the exception of Pacific Northwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Models in fair agreement in the near term and with large scale
features in good agreement in the extended range. Have used a
blend in the near term solutions. Upper closed low forms over the
Great Basin tonight with diffluence aloft over western Nebraska
developing through the early morning hours of Thursday. Some areas
of negative epv noted over the northwest with strong mid level
forcing as Colorado low develops and deepens through the morning.
Surface low moves into western Kansas through the afternoon and
deepens to 988mb. Upglide and cold front moving south into western
Nebraska with a mix of precipitation early as the cold air moves
south. Have discounted convection developing over the west with
warm air aloft but not out of the question. 500mb low and 700mb
low positively tilted early and then becoming more baroclinic
through the afternoon and evening slowing things down. Both lows
move over western Nebraska with ample forcing to the north.
Highlights generally north of I80. Snow continuing through the day
on Thursday with strong north winds crating some blowing and
drifting snow. Snow to spread east through the day with winds
increasing Thursday night into Friday. Calving has begun over
western Nebraska and livestock will be major concern.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Heavier snow along the South Dakota border. Highs in the 20s and
lower 30s on Thursday and teens and 20s Friday. Single digits for
over night lows. Deformation zone over the west early Friday
morning spreading east through the day on Friday before ending
over north central ONeill on Friday night. Upper low shears to the
northeast Friday night with temperatures rebounding through the
weekend. Next round of precipitation through the first part of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest satellite imagery has showed increasing cloud cover across
western and north central NEB. Stratus with IFR ceilings is
advancing southward and has reached KTIF and KONL. Current
thinking holds that conditions will continue to deteriorate
across the remainder of the forecast area to low-end MVFR then IFR
rest of tonight. IFR to LIFR ceilings will then prevail tomorrow.

No precipitation yet. Snow/wintry mix will develop over northwest
NEB between midnight and 3 AM CST. Snow will then spread eastward
into the Sandhills into north central NEB in the morning,
elsewhere a wintry mix will be seen with rain more likely farther
south. Expect the wintry mix to changeover to all snow tomorrow
mid-late afternoon. Current thinking is KLBF terminal will see a
switch to all snow late afternoon/early evening. Average
confidence exists with respect to changeover over the
Interstate 80 corridor on south. Moderate to heavy snow at times,
mainly north of the Interstate 80 corridor with vis 1/2 mile or
worse. Breezy northwest winds developing now into the small
hours. Northerly winds will then strengthen during the day
tomorrow with gusts between 20 and 30 mph anticipated.


Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday to 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ038-056>059.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ004-

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ005>010-022>029-035>037.



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