Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 120551
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1151 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight with winds
rapidly decreasing. Dry airmass remains in place across western and
southwest Nebraska, and low temperatures in these areas will drop
quickly into the upper teens and lower 20s. Airmass farther east
across north central Nebraska is a bit more moist, and lows should
reflect that in the mid 20s.

Very nice day expected Tuesday, with light westerly downslope winds
around 10 mph. Warmer air aloft will advect in from the west, with
850mb temperatures rising in the 7C to 11C range. Highs will be very
mild in the 50s, with perhaps lower 60s across western portions of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The morning model runs presented a "surprise" for Thursday
suggesting a disturbance across the Gulf of Alaska will ride up and
over the Wrn U.S. ridge and dive south through the Great Plains.
Heights lower and the system carries moisture south producing light
snow Thursday, mainly across northern Nebraska. Although h10-5KM
thicknesses fall to 530 DM, the models still advertise highs in the
upper 30s. 500m AGL temperatures fall to around 0C which supports
highs in the 30s. Thus road surfaces may not fall below the freezing
mark and QPF in the models is generally 1/10 of an inch or less
supporting light snow.

Strong winds are expected both Wednesday and Thursday with winds in
the 850-700mb layer increasing to 40-65 kt. The 500m AGL winds
increase to 20 to 30 kt each day supporting sfc winds in the 20 to
30 mph range gusting to 40-45 mph. The wind forecast uses consensus
of model output statistics for the wind forecast.

Tuesday and Friday are quiet interludes to cold fronts moving
through the region. Another front will arrive Saturday or Sunday.
Model timing differences increase to 18-24 hours by next weekend.
The forecast keeps this frontal passage dry but the models appear to
be trending toward a wetter pattern as the GFS, ECM and Canadian
models are advertising a period of light snow with this frontal
passage.

The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus the previous
forecast plus bias corrected guidance for highs mostly in the 40s
and 50s. Bias correction had tended to nudge forecast highs and lows
up or down a degree or two.

None of the models indicate any kind of direct arctic air moving
into ncntl and wrn Neb. Thursday will be the coolest day with highs
rise in the upper 30s to mid 40s. This is still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The area of MVFR cigs across portions of ncntl into cntrl Nebraska
should dissipate by 12z Tuesday. High pressure across the cntl
high plains will drift southward overnight with sfc low pressure
quickly moving southeast into Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
on Tuesday. The result should be generally clear skies developing
overnight lasting through Tuesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The Red Flag Warning for zone 210 has expired.

Across western and north central Nebraska, rain or snow liquid
totals are expected to remain near or below 1/10 of an inch during
the next 7 days.

Opportunities for range fire development exist Tuesday and
Friday. The area of concern both days is Southwest Nebraska,
generally along and south of Interstate 80 where humidity will
fall to around 20 percent or slightly less. Winds on both days
should be light at 10 to 15 mph. Otherwise, cool weather will
cause humidity to remain above 25 percent across all of western
and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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