Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281241
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
741 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

H5 analysis has a trough of low pressure over the western CONUS
with the base of the trough located near the far northwestern
corner of Arizona. A secondary wave was noted over the lower Ohio
valley with a low amplitude ridge located between this feature and
the trough over the western CONUS. In advance of the western
trough, light rain showers had developed overnight and were
lifting across the Nebraska panhandle from northeastern Colorado.
Some showers had begun to move into southwestern Nebraska and as
of 3 AM CDT, had remained mainly aloft. Under mostly cloudy skies,
overnight readings were generally in the lower to middle 40s
across western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Just updated the forecast for dense fog across Custer, Loup,
Blaine, Garfield and Wheeler counties. Highway cameras, as well as
the public, has reported some visbys at or below one quarter of a
mile. Fog is expected to burn off by mid to late morning as a mid
level deck of clouds lifts north from southwestern
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Today and tonight:  Precipitation chances will be the
main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours. The upper level
trough currently located over the swrn CONUS, will migrate east
across Arizona into New Mexico through 12z Wednesday. Mid level warm
air advection will continue to lift northeast of the trough today
into tonight. In addition, a nice area of isentropic lift was noted
at the 300K surface with the latest NAM12 soln across southwestern
into central Nebraska. This favorable lift will lead to the
development of showers later this morning across southwestern
Nebraska as top down saturation commences. This activity will slowly
spread northeast today, impacting the northeastern forecast area
this evening. Looking at the latest NAM12, HRRR and WARW, decided to
slow down the onset of rainfall today. This led to mainly dry
conditions in the northeastern forecast area through this afternoon.
By tonight, a broad shield of precipitation will lift north of the
main upper level low, impacting the entire forecast area overnight.
The inherited forecast had this handled well and no changes were
made to tonight`s precipitation forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A more active pattern begins to transition for the rest of the
week bringing several chances for precipitation.

An upper level trough will continue to translate southeast across
the central plains brining the first chance of precipitation. The
main precipitation type will be rain as temperatures will be in the
40s and 50s...however have left a chance of rain/snow mix across the
far northwest in the morning hours as temperatures will be in the
30s. The rain will push out of the area by overnight Wednesday.

Rain chances return on Saturday as an upper level low digs across
the four corners region and continue to move south and east. The
greatest chance for rain will be across the southern part of the
county warning area.

As for temperatures through the week, they will remain mild through
the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s. Then the 60s return on
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Occasional rain will lift across western and north central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours as an upper level low tracks
across the southern plains. For the KLBF terminal, expect IFR
CIGS under 1000 FT AGL with light rain expected through 12z
Wednesday. For the KVTN terminal: Expect MVFR CIGS around 1500 FT
AGL to develop later this morning and persist through the evening
hours. Ceilings may fall below 1000 FT AGL overnight.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ026>029-
038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Buttler
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler



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