Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







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