Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
000
FXUS63 KLBF 170554
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1254 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and breezy conditions on Sunday with highs falling
slightly below normal into the 40s.
- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through
Tuesday due to dry conditions with breezy winds at times.
- Temperatures rebound back into the above-normal range generally
in the 50s and 60s Monday through the end of the week.
- A weather pattern shift is expected heading into the weekend
which may bring an increased threat for precipitation across
the area, though specific details remain uncertain at this
time.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a meandering closed
low pressure system spinning over the Desert Southwest. Further
northwest of this feature, upper-level high pressure was pushing
onshore over the Pacific Northwest with troughing over the Gulf of
Alaska into the north Pacific. A closed off upper-level low pressure
system was centered over central Ontario with a trough extending
south into the Ohio River Valley. This system is vertically stacked
with surface low pressure noted and an attendant cold front
extending west-southwest, advancing southward across central Nebraska.
High pressure was dipping southward out of central Canada into
Montana and North Dakota. Efficient mixing and pressure rises
behind the front with the surface pressure gradient (SPG)
tightening between the two surface features has led to gusty
north- northwest winds today. Outside of some mid to high clouds
passing by, mostly sunny skies prevail across western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon. As of 2 PM CT, temperatures
ranged from 46 degrees at Gordon to 54 degrees at North Platte
with recent peak wind gust observations of 30 to 40 miles per
hour.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Sunday and Sunday Night... Colder air will begin to work into
the area as dry and breezy northwest flow continues Sunday into
Sunday night. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb
out of the 40s with the exception being far southwest Nebraska
where low to mid 50s will be felt. The dry airmass behind the
front will lead to lowest humidity falling to 20 to 25 percent
combining with north to northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will result in elevated to near- critical fire weather
conditions. Despite the cooler temperatures and minimum RH not
reaching critical values of 15 to 20 percent precluding any
headlines, any fire starts Sunday afternoon could spread quickly
given the gusty winds. The previously mentioned surface high
pressure will continue to push southward through the day on
Sunday, centering over central Nebraska overnight. Much colder
low temperatures in the teens settle in as a result under clear
skies.
Monday and Monday Night...As we head into Monday, the upper-level
ridge will build further into the western CONUS with surface high
pressure continuing southward into the southern Plains. High
temperatures rebound back into the 50s to low 60s with clear skies
prevailing across western and north central Nebraska. With such warm
and dry air in place, afternoon humidities will bottom out into the
18 to 25 percent range, especially for areas along and east of
Highway 83. However, being in close proximity to the surface high
pressure will result in lighter winds with gusts of 25 miles per
hour or less expected. Given this, fire concerns will be
marginal with elevated conditions anticipated during the day.
Surface low pressure will drop southward out of Manitoba into
the Great Lakes region with an attendant cool front forecast to
sweep through the area overnight. While the temperature
advection will be weak, a combination of a tightening SPG and
strong mechanical mixing behind the front will result in winds
strengthening out of the northwest overnight Monday into early
Tuesday morning with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour
are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The upper-level pattern for the start of the long term will be
defined by an Omega Block, not too much different than today.
The stubborn closed low will continue across the Desert
Southwest with high pressure centering over the Pacific
Northwest and the Great Basin. On either side of these features,
troughing will be evident across the Gulf of Alaska into the
north Pacific and over the eastern third of the CONUS. As the
upper-level ridge continues to build across the western CONUS,
dry conditions with unseasonably warm temperatures in the 50s
and 60s will continue through mid-week. However, confidence
wanes some in regards to temperatures given the spread amongst
model solutions increasing on Wednesday and Thursday due to
colder air intruding from the north. This is highlighted by
large standard deviation values, specifically for next Thursday.
Given this is around the 5 to 6 day mark in the forecast, do
expect the spread to narrow some with subsequent forecasts, thus
will stick to the NBM solution with this forecast issuance.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible through mid-
week with breezy winds at times, though subtle increase in low-
level moisture will lessen overall concerns.
On Thursday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will set up with the upper-
level low currently across the Desert Southwest finally makes
way across the southern Plains. Beyond this, considerable
differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall
synoptic flow heading into the weekend which is apparent when
looking at upper-level spaghetti charts. Most guidance does
hint at the potential for a threat of precipitation returning
across the region, however, specific details regarding
precipitation type, amounts, and locations remains unresolved given
being nearly 7 days out. Given such low confidence on this
weekend`s precipitation chances, cannot argue with the NBM`s
forecast of slight chance/chance (20 to 35%) PoPs. Will need to
continue to monitor trends in the coming days with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VFR conditions will prevail today across all of western and
north central Nebraska. Winds will once again become gusty from
the north late this morning and continue through the afternoon
hours. Winds quickly diminish after sunset tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Taylor