Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222327 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

This morning`s H5 analysis had high pressure centered
over the Oklahoma panhandle. This feature extended west to off the
California coast and east into western Alabama. On the periphery
of this feature, shortwaves were located over northwestern Kansas,
northern Utah, western Nevada and Baja California. North of the
high, ridging extended north into the Dakotas. West of this ridge,
a trough of low pressure was located over western Washington and
extended south into northern California. A 50+ kt jet streak was
south of the shortwave and extended from northern California into
western Montana. At the surface, a stationary front was anchored
over southern and western South Dakota with a surface trough
extending south from this feature, a trough of low pressure
extended from southeastern South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
central Kansas. Very moist air was present across western and
north central Nebraska this afternoon with dew points in the mid
to upper 70s. The exception was over portions of the sandhills and
the eastern panhandle, where dew points were in the upper 50s to
60s. Readings as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 92 at Broken Bow to 98 at
Imperial.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A weak surface front combined with an upper level disturbance will
bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the area tonight. The
best chance will be generally along and south of an O`Neill to
Thedford to Ogallala line, which is closer to the stalled front
across southwest and south central Nebraska. Overall shear is quite
weak again today within subtropical plume around upper level high
pressure centered to our south, but surface based cape is very
strong. Expecting that a few storms could produce gusty winds and
brief heavy rain, but hail is a minimal threat due to such warm air
aloft and weak shear.

A shortwave disturbance will move across southern Canada and the
northern plains Saturday, which will drive a cold front south across
the area. Ahead of the front expect another hot and humid day, and
have extended the heat warning and advisory ahead of the front from
roughly Ainsworth to Grant and areas to the southeast. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorm development later Saturday afternoon
along the front from the O`Neill area southwest through Broken Bow
and McCook.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

n the mid range, the main forecast challenge is
precipitation chances Saturday night/Sunday. For Saturday night, a
cold front will pass through the far eastern portions of the cwa and
is expected to clear the forecast area by mid evening. Thunderstorms
will be possible INVOF of the front in the east and far southeastern
forecast area through mid evening. This activity will shift quickly
east and south overnight as the front stalls off to the south of the
forecast area. The next threat for precipitation will arrive on
Sunday north of the frontal boundary. Both the NAM and GFS solutions
develop a nice area of lift along the H7 front Sunday. This feature
is anchored across the central forecast area. Have introduced some
low pops across the forecast area-from the sandhills south, for
Sunday. Have kept pops fairly low as qpf`s will be light given the
drier layer below 10000 ft agl. Precipitation chances will shift
south into the southern cwa for Sunday night as a shortwave trough
lifts over the stalled out frontal boundary. ATTM the bulk of pcpn
should be INVOF of the front, so have opted for only slight chance
pops in the forecast area Sunday night. On Monday, we will see
mainly dry conds as the surface front is forced further south into
central Kansas. By late afternoon/evening the front will begin to
lift north over eastern Colorado as southerly winds develop on the
back side of exiting high pressure. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in some western areas late Monday into Monday night in the
vicinity of theta e axis.

Upper level high pressure will continue to drift west into the swrn
CONUS next week. Westerly flow aloft will become more northwesterly
toward the middle of next week. This will result in a more active
pattern with seasonal highs in the 80s. There will be a threat for
thunderstorms each day particularly in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Radar trends and upper level wind fields suggest the thunderstorm
complex across Western Nebraska will move slowly east-northeast
tonight. Storm coverage is very uncertain given than the model
are showing poor skill. The forecast uses an extrapolation of the
ongoing radar coverage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ058-069-
070.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ006>010-
026>029-037-038-059-071.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NEZ005-024-025-036-094.

Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004-022-023-035-
056-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC



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