Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140429
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM CUSTER...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES. SNOW HAS ENDED IN
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. RADAR RETURNS FROM COLORADO AND FAR SERN
WYOMING...INDICATE A NICE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN NERN
COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING DISTURBANCE OVER FAR SERN
UT. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...ALLOW THIS SNOW TO DRIFT INTO
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW WHICH MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH A GOOD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAD BEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DOWN OVER UTAH AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA HAD AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS...WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND AS THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK BY EARLY TO MID MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY
FELL AS SNOW. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAD BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE 700MB LOW TRACKED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA. THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
HAS SHIFTED EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH ALLOWED THE PRECIPITATION
TO ALSO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BY MID AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY
ENDED. THERE WERE SEVERAL STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW THAT
DEVELOPED...WHICH DROPPED AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

AT 20Z...MODERATE SNOWFALL DID CONTINUE FROM CURTIS TO BROKEN BOW TO
ALMERIA...WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW STILL IN AREAS TO THE WEST. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS ENDED AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAVE GENERALLY ENDED. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE ROADWAYS
MAY REMAIN SLICK...BUT ANY FOLLOWING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
MAKE THINGS WORSE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING...BUT  WILL START TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. WINDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /SUSTAINED OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF
45 MPH/ IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. COULD STILL GET A FEW HIGHER
READINGS YET THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THIS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED SO
NO NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES.

THE SNOW OCCURRING AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AFTER 00Z...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER UTAH KICKS EAST OVERNIGHT.
THAT SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS COLORADO AND
KANSAS. DID TREND THE FORECAST DRIER FOR THE EVENING...BUT KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN CASE OF A SLIGHT SHIFT.
COLDER AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF
CANADA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST ENHANCE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER AIR BY KEEPING IT HERE RATHER THAN
LETTING IT DRIFT EAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WITH THE NEW SNOW...MAY GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO HELP COOL THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE DROPPED
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LIKELY. THEN FOR
MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE COLDER AIRMASS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS MID APRIL...THINK THE SNOW MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT INFLUENCE SO DID DROP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. NOW
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE SUB FREEZING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS LOW DEWPOINTS DICTATE
STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO MONTANA AND
IDAHO...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVERY SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOWER 60S
AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS
REGION. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA BY 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS 4C TO 6C. WILL GO BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS OF 0C
TO -6C. WILL GO NEARER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO MATURE
ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND SERN NEBR. PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN
OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DAILY WARMING TREND. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE
50S FRIDAY...60S SATURDAY...THEN NEAR 70 SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WHERE CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
9000 TO 12000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL SHOULD SET IN OVERNIGHT. FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...LEADING TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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