Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280501
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE RIDGING
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. A FEW TEMPS NEARING 90 ACROSS SW NEB WERE MORE SUN PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON. CAPE IS PLENTIFUL...WITH 2500 TO 4000
J/KG...HOWEVER SHEAR IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...20 TO 25 KTS. THE NAM
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE SHEAR ACROSS N CENTRAL TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND 03Z. THUS SEVERE THREAT IS THERE...BUT NOT GREAT
AND IS BEST WHEN THE SHEAR IS GREATEST. PWATS ON THE INCREASE...WITH
MODELS BRING VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL.
STORM MOTION IS 10 TO 15 KTS SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FLOODING RAINS.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS PUSH EAST WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND. NOSE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LL JET IS ACROSS EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IOWA SO
ANY MCS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
IN THE WRAP AROUND...HOWEVER MORE GENERALLY AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
CLOUDS TO HELP SLOW WARMUP IN THE EAST...WHERE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND
80. MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARM/DRY AIR FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY. IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE DRY TRAJECTORY IS NOT AS STRONG...
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT
IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME...THE THETA-E RIDGE ON THE HIGH
PLAINS BECOMES STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO MORE THAN
AN INCH. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY INCREASING...THERE IS STILL A
LACK OF A BOUNDARY OR OTHER FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THAN
SPOTTY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.

TURNING TO WEATHER...LIGHT EAST WIND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA COULD FAVOR FOG EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL (0-
1KM AND BOUNDARY LAYER) RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATES 80-85 PERCENT AT
THE HIGHEST. OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (SREF...MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE)...ONLY THE MET INDICATES FOG. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL EXCLUDE THE MENTION OF
FOG FOR NOW.

AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 0-6KM
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LOWER AND THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY FOG AND VSBYS FCST TO 3SM SHOULD
AFFECT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. SINCE THE KVTN
ASOS IS INOPERABLE AT THIS TIME...AMMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED.
FURTHER SOUTH AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN BY 08Z
AND LINGER UNTIL 13Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG


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