Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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693
FXUS63 KLBF 290838
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Another triple play with the pops today and tonight. The ongoing
showers across Ncntl Neb are forced by a MCV drifting through SD.
The models drop this disturbance south this morning and weaken it
by noon.

The focus for storm development this afternoon shifts west to the
Laramie range and Black Hills. Instability is modest as is the
shear...less than 2000 j/kg in the mixed layer. The shear increases
to 45 kt. Storms could fire on these foci and move east and
southeast into Wrn Neb and Ncntl Neb this evening.

Water vapor shows a disturbance across Srn Alberta this morning
which the models move toward Ncntl Neb this evening. The combination
of the storm activity moving off the Black Hills and forcing from
the Alberta disturbance could produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across Ncntl Neb this evening which could last past
midnight.

The temperature forecast uses a four-way blend of guidance plus bias
correction for highs in the lower 80s today with lows tonight in the
lower 60s. A low level jet develops tonight helping sustain the
showers and thunderstorms across Ncntl Neb. The jet could also
produce an area of stratus after midnight which all models suggest
will form. Recent rainfall and has trapped moisture beneath a dirty
sfc ridge centered across the Upper Midwest across.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Upper level wave will be exiting the area Saturday morning within
northwest flow aloft. Have lingered some slight chance pops during
the morning, but by afternoon there is little focus for
thunderstorm development either at the surface or aloft so have
cut pops and went dry for most areas. Am a bit concerned that an
overcast stratus deck may linger through the morning east of
Highway 83, and have not increased highs any this forecast cycle
despite warming H850mb temps through the upper teens and into the
20s Celsius.

Sunday the upper level ridge begins to expand back to the east
from the desert southwest toward the southern plains. Flow aloft
transitions to more zonal across our area on the northern
periphery of the high. Warming mid level temperatures will likely
cap any thunderstorm activity during the day, but Sunday night a
weak mid level disturbance will combine with a northeastward
advancing H850mb warm front across the area, and feel at least a
slight chance of thunder is warranted.

Ridge aloft will expand northward into the central plains the
first half of next week, with hot and humid conditions. Model
consensus is that actual high temperatures should not top 100
degrees, but heat index values could as humidity will once again
be high with this next hot spell. By the middle and end of the
week, a strong upper low will track across Canada. A trailing cold
front will stall across the central plains brining a return to
seasonal temperatures and increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Isolated-scattered weak unorganized convection is currently
present across portions of north central and central NE. Current
thinking: Thunderstorms and rain showers will continue to push
southeast though these areas. exiting central NE in the next two
to three hours. May see a few isolated thunderstorms & showers
develop across central NE/western NE, however, confidence is low.

New concern will be patchy/areas of fog developing early this
morning, especially in climo prone areas. Fog development is
anticipated to occur after 8 UTC with dissipation occurring
between 12-14 UTC. Scant areas of low stratus/fog already evident
from Fog Sat product. As such, mentioned MVFR vis in TAFs at
this time but will need to monitor as the night progresses to stay
on top of trends. Still slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area, however,
confidence remains low to place anything in the TAFs.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET



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