Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of
low pressure extending from swrn Canada to off the coast of
Washington and Oregon. Embedded shortwaves extended from the base of
this trough northeast into south central Canada. Downstream of the
trough and shortwaves, low amplitude ridging extended from the mid
Mississippi valley north to Hudson Bay. Downstream of this feature,
a trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into the Mid
Atlantic states. Satellite imagery tonight, has a broad plume of
mid and upper level moisture lifting from the Pacific coast into the
central and northern plains. At the surface: Low pressure was
located over central South Dakota with a surface trough of low
pressure extending south into western Nebraska. West of the low, a
cold front extended into northeastern Wyoming. Temperatures as of 3
AM CST ranged from 34 at Ogallala, to 46 at Ainsworth and Thedford.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Over the next 24 hours, precipitation chances tonight are the
main forecast concern. A cold front will approach the forecast
area this morning and is expected to clear the forecast area by
mid afternoon. With the timing of the front today, we can expect a
wide range in highs with readings around 50 along the SD/Nebr.
border, to the upper 60s in far southwestern Nebraska. Behind the
front, mid level frontogenesis will deepen from west central into
southwestern and central Nebraska this evening into the overnight.
Looking at the NAM12 and GFS solutions, a band of fronto pcpn
develops early evening in the southern Panhandle, then shifts to
the east southeast overnight with the greatest threat across south
central Nebraska. Looking at precipitation timing, the GFS, NAM12
and SREF plumes develop most of the QPF with this system during
the evening hours. This timing is important, as temperatures will
be warm enough to support all rain based on the latest model
solutions. QPF falls off quickly after midnight per the NAM12, GFS
and SREF plumes, so the threat for snow will be minimal attm. As
for QPF, utilized the mean of the SREF plumes, which yielded a
tenth to two tenths of an inch mainly along and south of highway
92 from Arthur to Broken Bow. Again with the precipitation timing
being mainly in the evening, snowfall should be limited and mainly
from North Platte to Taylor and points east. Thinking right now
is any snow accumulations will be well under an inch given
forecast QPF after midnight being under 0.05 inches. Precipitation
timing will definitely need to be further evaluated today on the
day shift. If the model timing shifts into the overnight, the
threat for accumulating snow will increase as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A windy and cooler day is expected Saturday in the wake of the
Friday nights cold front. Soundings show a well mixed atmosphere,
with stronger winds aloft having no problem making it to the
surface. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be common, with sustained
speeds of 20 to 25 mph. Modest cold air advection will hold highs in
the 40s.

A warm up for Sunday as westerly downslope winds develop with highs
back into the 50s. Monday will be even warmer as highs reach into
the 60s across portions of western into central Nebraska. An Alberta
Clipper system will quickly move east across southern Canada
Tuesday, driving a cold front south through the northern and central
plains. The airmass behind the front will cool highs back into the
40s once again, but this will be short lived as westerly downslope
flow resumes Wednesday into Thursday. In fact, by Thanksgiving,
highs in the 60s are forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Clouds will increase and ceilings will lower today as a cold front
passes through the area. By evening there will be an increased
threat for light rain. Some light snow may be possible as well.
Right now, not enough confidence exists to insert a mention of
snow attm. Ceilings will bottom out in the 1500 to 2500 FT AGL
range overnight, then increase to 6000 to 15000 FT AGL overnight.
Winds today will be gusty from the north at 15 to 25 KTS.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.