Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 282016
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 70S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. WESTERN NEB HAS SEEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S.  ELSEWHERE THE RIDGE IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD. PLENTIFUL BL MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEB...AND WILL LIMIT THE COOLING IN THE EAST. IF CLOUDS
CLEAR EARLIER ENOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT JUST RECORDED RAIN LAST NIGHT. WESTERN NEB HAS DRIER AIR
IN PLACE...AND SHOULD SEE LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...THUS NO
CONCERN FOR FOG.

TOMORROW WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS ROCKIES RIDGE EXPANDS. HIGH
IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE EASTERN ZONES WITH LOWER TO MID 90S
ELSEWHERE. DRY LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL
CAUSE FIRE DANGER TO BECOME ELEVATED. MIN RH VALUES LIKELY TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER WEST OF THE LINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON GUST OF 20 TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL COME
ASHORE SATURDAY ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...MOVE EAST INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND THEN SHEAR OUT MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
FORCING TO DRAG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
FCST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
THE SREF QPF WAS THE BASIS FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM SHOWS A SOLID 40-50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS NRN NEB.
ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE 50S IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE GFS
GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER 90S TO 100 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT
GIVEN THE SOUTH WINDS AT 800 MB AND BELOW IN THE NAM...THE WARMER
GUIDANCE MIGHT NOT VERIFY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE DEEPER MIXING SHOWN BY THE GFS. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. FAR SWRN NEB MIGHT REACH MID 90S. OTHERWISE 80S TO
NEAR 90 ARE EXPECTED WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TEMPERING THE HEATING
CYCLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD DRAW COOLER AIR
SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE ECM
SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THIS FRONT WOULD LIKELY AFFECT THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN WE ROAST.

THE FORECAST THEN CONCERNS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
H700MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM 12C TO 15C SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
VERY WARM READINGS. H850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOST FLAT LINED AROUND
25C. THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS 98...100 AND 101 AT
VALENTINE WITH UPPER 90S AT NORTH PLATTE. THESE HIGHS ARE THE RESULT
MIXING TO 700 MB. THESE WARMER HIGHS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARD THE CNTL DAKOTAS. THE FORECAST IS FOR GENERALLY NEAR 90
TUESDAY...LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 90 THURSDAY. LATER
FORECASTS MAY MARK THESE HIGHS UP.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD COOL
FRIDAY INTO THE 80S. NEITHER THE GFS OR ECM SHOW ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
FORECAST POPS ARE ISOLATED AND GENERALLY FAVOR WRN NEBRASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE. STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH BASED FORMING
ABOVE THE 700MB WARM INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
EAST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF...WITH STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW TO KBBW. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. UNCERTAINTY DOES
EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF TERMINAL. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS...AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...DO BELIEVE IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z SATURDAY MORNING NEAR
THE KLBF TERMINAL. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INSERTED 4SM VISIBILITIES
AT THIS TIME FOR KLBF BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z ON THE 29TH OF AUGUST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK


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