Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 151148 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RIDGE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CONUS...HURRICANE OVER BAJA. FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS. BROAD TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH PUSHING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
WITH COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS AREA AS SEEN IN CURRENT KLNX
88D. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM. COOL FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER. STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
OVER MOST OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER BLACK HILLS IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A +3MB 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE LAYER TO AROUND 750MB LAYER. TIME HEIGHTS IN NAM HAVE
SKIES CLEARING AROUND 15Z AT KVTN AND AROUND 18Z AT KLBF. SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH 1 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN NAM AND GFS. SURFACE HIGH
WITH COOLEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH HIGH 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT COOLER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S NORTH CENTRAL AND THE MID 40S TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THURSDAY...BUT THEN
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH THE ADVANCE OF A TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING FOR A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO OF NOTE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...AS HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS OUR
WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY TO AT TIMES SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
MAXIMIZED /NORTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES/ HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST OVERNIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL WAA
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EC AND
NAM 15.00Z SOLUTIONS REMAIN GENERALLY DRY IN OUR CWA...WITH THE
BETTER FOCUS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE GFS DOES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INTRODUCED POPS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO WILL GO WITH THAT FOR
ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT DESPITE DRYING MOISTURE PROFILES DISPLAYED
IN KLBF AND KMCK PROXIMITY/BUFR SOUNDINGS WHEN QPF IS
PREDICTED...BUT AGAIN CURRENTLY FEEL THE BETTER FOCUS SHOULD BE
OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL...WIDESPREAD 50S SHOULD PREVAIL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM TUESDAY READINGS...RANGING FROM THE MID
70S EAST...TO LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.

GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE
IN STORE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
SUFFICIENT THERMAL ADVECTION COULD PROMOTE PRECIPITATION.  THE NAM
AND THE GFS ARE LEADING THE WAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE...WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS POSSIBLY NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY.  THE EC IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
QPF AMOUNTS...BUT IS SUGGESTING MEASURABLE QPF GENERALLY IN THE SAME
AREA.  WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED POPS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL SANDHILLS EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
EMPLOY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ENCOMPASSING
ALL AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...A FEW MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST.  LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND THERMAL ADVECTION.  WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT LOWER 60S CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.

FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE PLAINS AND THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER T/S.  THE GFS IS LEADING
THE WAY IN QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS IT
PROJECTS A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
WORKING ON THE FRONT.  THE EC SOMEWHAT HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT AGAIN
LESSER COVERAGE.  BOTH MODELS FAVOR THE HEAVIEST CHANCES AND QPF
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE CR_ALLBLEND PROCEDURE MAINTAINED
~20-45% POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BACKED OFF DURING
THE OTHER PERIODS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MOVING ALONG.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE BLENDER ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OUT OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER





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