Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 282020
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE CENTER OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POTENT STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
NOON. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTENING THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

AS FAR AS SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THAT
IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THOUGH
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND DURING THAT TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A CHILLY RAW DAY...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING
COOLER AIR LOCKED IN. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S...EXCEPT NEAR
50 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NWRN KS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES FCST NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LBF THORUGH BBW LINE.
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C
NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 83. BUFKIT SOUNDING SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE AS
SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IF NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER. HAVE KEPT TYPE AS RAIN OR SNOW WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH DYNAMIC
COOLING IN FAVORED AREAS OF OMEGA.

SATURDAY... COOLED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN SOME AREA AS INFLUENCE
OF UPPER SYSTEM AND H85 NO HIGHER THAN 0-1C EXIST. HIGHS FROM
NEAR 40 TO THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...AND THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NOT
BE ENOUGH. KEPT LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND CONTINUED LIFT. THE EASTWARD SIDE OF
RAIN OR SNOW STILL KEPT NEAR HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BACK FURTHER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME QPFS FCST UP TO A HALF
INCH ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA TO 1 INCH NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STILL A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS. LOWS FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
EAST.

SUNDAY...STILL A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO 4-5C...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION QUICKLY FILLS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHSFROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY WILL WARM EACH DAY TO THE LOWER
70S WEDNESDAY AND MID 70S BY THURSDAY. DRY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE
MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS WILL BE RIVER RISE RESPONSES.
RIVER POINTS ALONG THE ELKHORN...NORTH PLATTE...AND SOUTH PLATTE
BASINS ARE ALREADY RISING AND ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
ACTION STAGE. EVENTUAL MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG


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