Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 170526 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN ACTIVE H5 PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO WITH A SECONDARY
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER EASTERN ND. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 150
METERS EXTENDED FROM NRN MINNESOTA...SE INTO OHIO AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHER WEST...RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS THE ROCKIES
NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA IN CANADA. FURTHER WEST...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO TEXAS. OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS OF
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. AS OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME OF THIS LOW CLOUDINESS WAS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ELSEWHERE...UNDER CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 21 AT AINSWORTH...ONEILL AND
THEDFORD TO 24 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRATUS AND SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL SWING OF
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WILL LEAD TO STRATUS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL OVERCOME THE SNOW PACK
AND ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF VERY FAR OVERNIGHT. HAD SOME
FOG ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO FAR SW NEB THIS MORNING AND WITHOUT
ANY MIXING OUT OF THE BL...EXPECT IT TO RETURN. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MAKE IT. THIS MORNING THE EASTWARD PUSH WAS
LIMITED HOWEVER EXPECT THE POCKET OF PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SW NEB
WILL ADD A LITTLE MOISTURE /MELTING SNOW/ TO THE BL AND FAVOR MOVE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST ACROSS SW NEB. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD FOG...SO ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS UP...AND
FORECAST IS ABOVE GOING GUIDANCE. TOMORROW HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S AS
CLOUDS AND SNOW PACK WORK TO KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LEAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL CROSS KANSAS AND SRN NEBRASKA
WEDS NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA INDICATE SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE H700 TO H600 LAYER ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA WEDS
EVENING...WHICH COINCIDES WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS
INDICATING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT...WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED POPS UP IN THE SWRN CWA...TO BETTER
REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS FOR QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN.
THIS LED TO QPF`S RANGING FROM AROUND A HUNDREDTH AN INCH IN THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A MAX OF 5 TO 7 HUNDREDTHS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN THE 20S...AND
UTILIZING A SNOW/WATER RATIO OF 13 TO 1...TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH
WEDS NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF TO AN INCH. MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY. AS THE SNOW EXITS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MID
LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY MORNING...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG HIGHWAY 83 BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...DRYING IN THE MID LEVEL
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...DECIDED TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST...BOUNDARY
LAYER RH  WILL REMAIN AROUND 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUDY SKIES
AND WARMER LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON
LONGER...RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 30.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ALOFT...WESTERLY WINDS AND WARMER H85 TEMPS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
REACH THE 30S...WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REACH THE 40S. ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FOR SNOW BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION...HAS A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF SOLN FAVORS A STRONGER SRN STREAM
JET...WITH WARMING MIDWEEK AND CHRISTMAS...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SWRN NEB REPRESENT A
BREAK IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NCNTL NEB ALLOWING A FEW HOURS OF VFR CIGS BEFORE A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE RADAR RETURNS ARE FLURRIES AT BEST. THE MODELS
SHOW PATCHY FOG/LIFR DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SW NEB ONCE
THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT THE LOWER LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTN
SUGGESTING NO CLEARING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CAL
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CNTL PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING
PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SCNTL NEB...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO CUSTER COUNTY. IFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





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