Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 240959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE LOWER 48 WITH RIDGES OFF EITHER
COAST. SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH STRONG WAVE MOVING
UP THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS IN FAST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AS SEEN IN IR. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
BE SNOW OVER FAVORED AREA OF THE PINE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPPER SYSTEM TO THE WEST GIVES WESTERN NEBRASKA A
GLANCING BLOW. NAM HAS BEEN HANDLING THESE WEAK SYSTEMS FAIRLY WELL
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND HAVE BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM
SOLUTION. COLD FRONT TO WASH OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. OFF HOUR NAM HAS BETTER LIFT WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED AROUND 21Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SHOW GOOD SATURATION BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW AS DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER AND
NOT AS WINDY CONDITIONS BUT STILL WINDY. TONIGHT PACIFIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
WITH SOME UPPER TEENS OVER DRAINAGE BASINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY BE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
FIRST...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /ALBERTA
CLIPPER/ WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THOUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING FROM NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY TO IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK. THE BULK
OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA.

A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. ALL MODELS SHOWING THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL BEGIN A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND WITH THIS FORECAST
STARTING THANKSGIVING AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY IS THE DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED THE
MOST...SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNALING A
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH H850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEARING 17C. IN ADDITION...A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND WILL HELP AID IN THE WARM UP. AS STATED EARLIER...RAISED HIGHS
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...BUT HIGHS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FURTHER IF THE WARM
SIGNAL REMAINS IN THE MODELS.

STILL QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH PUSHING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS NOW A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT STILL DOESN/T PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. BESIDES THE ONGOING STRUGGLE WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO ANY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD HAVE DECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ON SATELLITE ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO
SWING INTO KONL-KANW AND PERHAPS WEST TO KVTN OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z AS THIS LIFTS EAST. THEREAFTER THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW DEVELOPING 18Z-
21Z OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NCNTL NEB MONDAY EVENING.
SO VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




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