Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SRN IA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF BANDED SNOW STRUCTURES HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH ARE WRAPPING WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN
COUNTY...HOLT AND BOYD AND ACROSS CHASE AND HAYES COUNTIES.

KIML HAS BEEN SITTING AT 1 TO 2SM ALL NIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS THE 2
INCH SNOW TOTAL THE MODELS ARE GIVING. OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA.

ANOTHER HOT SPOT IS ACROSS PINE RIDGE IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH 6 INCH
TOTALS WHERE CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. EARLY THIS MORNING
THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS BEEN ANCHORED NEAR CHADRON.

THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST PARTS OF HOLT AND BOYD COUNTY COULD GET 4
INCHES. ALL OF THESE TOTALS ARE FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. THE FORECAST
USES A 15 TO 1 RATIO ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
WHERE 12 TO 1 LOOKED REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMER GROUND.

WINDS AT 800 MB INCREASE TO 55 KT THIS MORNING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND
THEN DECREASE THIS AFTN. THE 500M AGL WIND SPEEDS IN ALL MODELS ARE
30 TO 35 KTS WHICH SUPPORT GROUND LEVEL SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. KSNY
GUSTED TO 58 MPH EARLIER WHICH SUGGESTS 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND DO NOT MIGRATE EAST
TODAY DESPITE THE 1030MB CRAIG HIGH WHICH BUILDS IN THIS AFTN.

WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING. FLURRIES
CONTINUE FOR ARE FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
CLEARING ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST. THE CRAIG HIGH SHOULD RIDGE THROUGH
THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

ALL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE AND THESE
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER CHRISTMAS AND INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A BIT
OF A WARM UP WEDNESDAY...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK CONDITIONS
WILL HELP WITH THE WARM UP. WILL NOT GO TOO WARM HOWEVER...AS AT
LEAST SOME SNOW WILL BE ON THE GROUND AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD
HIGHS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE WEST...AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AS MENTIONED...THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER CHRISTMAS AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION NOTED AT BOTH
H500 MB AND H700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODELS AGREE
FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE CENTERS TRACKING FROM NORTHERN COLORADO TO
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CHRISTMAS
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE PANHANDLE
RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH PWATS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO AROUND 0.40 INCHES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH IS ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FARTHER EAST
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER /WITH THE NAM INDICATING ONLY 10 TO 20
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITHIN THE DGZ...SO AM HESITANT TO BRING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SNOW TOO FAR EAST. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
HOWEVER...AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE
WITH DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ. SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THINKING AROUND 2 INCHES AT THIS POINT...MAYBE CLOSE TO 3 INCHES IN
A FEW SPOTS...BUT A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE
THE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD END UP
A BIT FARTHER EAST...THEN THE SNOW BAND WOULD END UP BEING A BIT
FARTHER EAST AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT...WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING. WIND 310-340 AT 15-25G27-35KT
WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 16Z TO 20-25G30-36KT. THIS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM AN INCH IN THE VICINITY OF OGA...IML...LBF AND BBW TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES SOUTH OF IEN AND UP TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF AN ONL-BUB-TIF-MHN LINE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AND END BY 20Z...BUT THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-022>029-035>037-094.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER




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