Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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046
FXUS63 KLBF 170441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL TRACK ALONG
THIS LINE AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE...THE DRY LINE HAS MIXED EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE TO WEST OF MCCOOK.
INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.

AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...SO MILD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGHS WILL SET UP ACROSS
CALIFORNIA MONDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT NATURE. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE INTO THE FRONT
RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS AND MID
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FROST CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ERN PNHDL
AND SWRN NEBR...THEN LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BUT FAR NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT LIFTS
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS WRN NEBR.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 9000 FT AGL
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS AON 20000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS OF 5000
TO 7000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS. CIGS
WILL RISE TO 10000 FT AGL SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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