Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Closed low to the west anchored over the Colorado Rockies. Broad
upper ridge over the western seaboard and upper high over southeast
CONUS with ridging into the Great Lakes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Movement of upper low will affect timing and strength of
precipitation today. Thunderstorms to the south over northwest
Kansas not making much headway as they try to move north this
morning but I have adjusted pops over the east to account for this
precipitation this morning. No lightning noted over western Nebraska
yesterday and with cooler temperatures today will hold off on
mention of thunder. Precipitation will be complicated today and have
not gone with as high of pops. As mentioned before precipitation
over northern Kansas struggling to move north into western Nebraska.
Showers will linger over northern Nebraska this morning and as the
upper low moves east today precipitation expected from the southeast
Nebraska Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. As upper low moves east
onto the eastern Colorado plains 700mb low will precede Upper 500mb
low with main forcing across  southwest Nebraska along and south of
I80. Precipitation will taper off over the north. Precipitation over
the northwest will mix with and change to snow along the Pine Ridge
after midnight. Heavier precipitation from O`neill to Imperial along
the 700mb frontogenesis and deformation zone. Temperatures in the
upper 30s may lower into mid 30s with stronger forcing and snow may
be possible along this band through the early morning on Saturday.
Pattern becomes more baroclinic through the early morning and move
slower with precipitation continuing into the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper level low will continue to lift north into the eastern Dakotas
on Saturday.  With subsidence increasing on the backside of the low,
precipitation will end from southwest to north through the day.  The
models continue to trend slower with the northward exit of the low,
so it appears likely that precipitation will continue into the
evening hours for our northern zones.  Additional qpf will be
upwards to a half an inch across northeast Nebraska on Saturday, but
elsewhere lighter amounts are forecast as dry air wraps into the
system from the west.  Subsidence lasts well into Sunday with dry
conditions forecast, but northwest flow will keep temperatures
slightly cool.  Will need to monitor the latest guidance as frost
and/or freeze headlines may be needed Sunday morning across western
and northwestern portions of the forecast area. The next shortwave
drops across the central Rockies late afternoon Sunday. the models
continue to trend drier with lesser spatial impact of qpf for the
CWA.  The next wave of interest arrives Monday evening into Tuesday
bringing better chances of widespread qpf to the cwa. Modest
moisture in the lower and mid levels will keep most amounts at a
quarter of an inch or less. Broad cyclonic flow continues across the
plains and midwest well into the middle of the work week.  This will
keep temperatures at or below climo through the period. A strong
ridge will build over the Rockies and begin impacting temperatures
across the plains during the later half of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Mainly IFR ceilings the next 24 hours across western Nebraska.
Rain showers will continue across north central Nebraska
overnight, while moving into sothwest Nebraska. Scattered showers
and mainly IFR ceilings will continue Friday. Northeast winds
15g22kt will also persist.


Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

RVS at Lewellen has been upgraded to a warning due to rainfall in
the Panhandle and increased releases upstream.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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