Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
000
FXUS63 KLBF 181713
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather concerns again today and Tuesday.
Higher humidity Wednesday and beyond should diminish the
overall threat the remainder of the week.
- Backdoor cold front will bring a cool down Wednesday,
especially across northern Nebraska.
- Unsettled weather expected to develop Friday into next
weekend as upper troughing develops across the western U.S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Surface high pressure is centered across central SD southward into
central KS early this morning. This will quickly shift off to the
southeast of the area through the day today. Return southwesterly
low-level flow will develop as the high shifts eastward, and this
will draw warmer air northeast into the area. Of note, dew points
across CO and WY this morning are in the mid to upper 20s. These
will spread east/northeastward across the area today helping to
alleviate the very dry airmass currently in place. Despite the
increasing dew points, fire weather conditions will remain elevated
across the area both today and Tuesday. Humidity will be lowest
today across portions of north central into central Nebraska. Values
of 15-20% are expected this afternoon but wind gusts should mostly
remain less than 20 mph. On Tuesday the winds will be a bit stronger
but humidity will also be higher.
Temperatures will rise to well above normal Tuesday. A plume of warm
air aloft shifts eastward off the Rockies and will easily mix to the
surface. Highs well into the 60s are expected with far southwest
Nebraska near 70F. Tuesday night, a cold front will dive southward
through the area as a shortwave dives southeast across the Dakotas.
A cold arctic airmass will spill southward into the northern plains
behind this front Wednesday. The coldest of the airmass will remain
well northeast of our area, but a marked cool down with highs in the
lower 40s are expected across northern Nebraska on the edge of the
airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Unsettled weather is in store for much of the central and western
U.S. as we head into the end of the week and next weekend. Ridging
aloft will be in place across the Rockies Thursday. Northwest flow
aloft will continue across the central and northern plains
downstream of the ridging. A shortwave dives southeast across the
northern plains Thursday night. After an above normal temperature
day Thursday, colder air again moves southward into the area Friday
on the backside of the wave.
The Rockies ridge will remain in place Friday. This feature shifts
eastward across the central CONUS Saturday as upper troughing digs
southward along the west coast. Operational models have been
struggling with the overall evolution of how this troughing develops
eastward Sunday into the first of next week. One feature that has
been consistently shown is that deep surface cyclogenesis occurs
across the plains Sunday into Monday. There is a fairly high
probability that at least some snow accumulation will occur late
Sunday into Monday as the surface low and upper trough track
across the region. This seems reasonable as a modifying arctic
airmass is drawn southward into the area on the backside of the
low. This would help enhance FGEN and resulting snowband.
Ensemble probabilities currently keep most of the accumulation
north of I-80 and nearer the South Dakota border. There is
potential for several inches of accumulation, especially across
South Dakota, but this could change and will be monitored the
next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals as just a few high clouds
stream by. West winds will transition to southwest this evening,
then back to northwest overnight, generally remaining under 12
kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively