Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242036
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK WITH HAVING LOWS DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWS...BUT EXPECTING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE WHERE LOW
TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING PROBABLE. ALSO...RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
FAVORABLE COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE LAYER AND WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE TRAJECTORY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. THE 24.12Z
NAM AND THE 24.00Z ECMWF SHOW THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH STICKING AROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND ALSO SLIGHTLY SHUNTING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 24.00Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND WARMS THINGS UP A BIT MORE. ALSO...DESPITE THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE MINIMAL...TO ONLY 850MB.  THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH VARY IN HIGHS FROM 75 TO 82 DEGREES AT KLBF. NOT
QUITE BUYING THE REAL COOLER NUMBERS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPACT OF TEMPERATURES COOLING FROM THE HIGH SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
COOLDOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY...

CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED LOWER 80 HIGHS
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND MIX DOWN H85 TEMPS AROUND
20C TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FGEN BAND MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE H8 THROUGH H6 LAYER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED IN THIS LAYER...AND FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW...COVERAGE
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION...WHICH FAVORS UP TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 KEPT VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS TIMING OF FRONT AND CAA REMAINS SIMILAR. H85 TEMPS OF
4C-9C ON TUESDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR HIGHS. A BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY
WILL H85 TEMPS OF 10C-16C AND HIGHS 65-70.


CONFIDENT IS BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
/DAY6/AND FRIDAY /DAY7/. THE GFS IS THE COOLER MODEL AND THE
ECMWF WARMER. THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST EVENINGS RUNS. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN
JUXTAPOSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INDICATES SOME COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER/MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM MID 50S EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEBRASKA. BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY BELOW 10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY SO LOOKING FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS








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