Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231128 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A midlevel disturbance is moving through western and north central
Nebraska this morning. The disturbance should exit the region by 18z-
19z according to a blend of the HRRR and RAP models. These models
were the basis for the temperature and rain forecast today. Clearing
skies should develop late this morning and early this afternoon with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

POPs are limited to 30 percent with rainfall totals generally less
than 1/10 of an inch. The better moisture and instability this
morning is located ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving through
the Sandhills. The front should drift through Swrn Neb before 12z.

The GFS based MAV guidance plus bias correction was the basis for
the forecast lows tonight. This was the coldest guidance and should
verify the best given the dry conditions. Clear skies, light winds
and very dry air will be in place supporting lows in the 40s with a
few readings in the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a broad upper
trough and cool surface high pressure into Monday while upper
ridging continues to the west.  Being on the western extent of the
trough, the forecast area will see northwest flow which will provide
for periods of sun and clouds.  Post frontal FGEN will keep
precipitation chances slight on Saturday with additional chances
Sunday and into Monday.  Deep low level moisture has been shunted
well south of the forecast area, so any rainshowers would be light
in nature, only producing a few hundreths of an inch at most.  The
cool surface high and northwest flow will keep daytime temperatures
below average with highs topping out in the 70s for most locations.
Temperatures warm some on Monday as a trough digs into the PAC NW
effectively breaking down the ridge to the east.  WAA and subsequent
return flow from the south will push highs back into the 80s for
Monday, with 80s and lower 90s possible Tuesday.  The return flow
will allow for increasing low level moisture and the potential of
higher coverage pops Monday and Tuesday.  Strong thunderstorms would
be expected with instability increasing with the moisture and
temperatures.  The PAC NW trough will flatten the ridge across the
plains setting the stage for a greater zonal influence. Temperatures
will remain seasonal mid next week and periodic chances of
thunder/rain producing storms continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR is expected today and tonight.

A midlevel disturbance is moving through western and north central
Nebraska producing rain across Nrn Neb. despite the rain, VFR
cigs appear to prevail across all areas except where the highest
radar returns are shown.

The disturbance should translate southeast this morning and exit
the region through Custer County by 18z-19z according to a blend
of the HRRR and RAP models. Clearing skies should develop late
this morning and early this afternoon. Clear skies are expected
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...CDC


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