Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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114
FXUS63 KLBF 132139
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREAWIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGIONWIDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. HOWEVER...THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2 AS MID AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP
PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN TO BEGIN WITH...SO
INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F AND RASN GE 35F EARLY
SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM
WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH
SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED
QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT
AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST
LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR. OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER
SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS
WEST. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING...AS SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 12
KTS. LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SNIVELY



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