000
FXUS63 KLBF 101810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1210 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED FROM SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS PAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICKED UP
INTO THE WINDY/VERY WINDY CATEGORY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NOT AS STRONG...EXCEPT AT KONL WHERE NW WINDS
20G28KT ONGOING. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AND
HAVE NEARLY ENDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHERE MIXING WINDS
ARE OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. KIML THE COLDEST AT 9 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT PV ANOMALY IN SWRN MN AND
A SECOND ONE UPSTREAM DIGGING INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. THE DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SWRN MT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MILDEST IN A WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID 30S ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SNOWPACK WILL OTHERWISE DICTATE
HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 20S TO PREVAIL.

MODELS INDICATE MOISTENING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING THIS EVENING. THIS
HOWEVER IS PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PINE RIDGE AREA INCLUDING
NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NW CHERRY COUNTY WITH CHANCES TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHER POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT THIS
EVENING WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NEBR/SD BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH PLATTE THIS EVENING. DESPITE WEAK
SUBSIDENCE FURTHER SOUTH...FAIRLY SATURATED INTO THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGHS
BUILDING IN. LOWS NEAR ZERO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO 5 TO 8 ABOVE SOUTH.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AS HIGH AS 10-20 MPH WILL LOWER WIND
CHILLS TO AS LOW AS 15 BELOW IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF EXTENDED PERIODS REMAINS TEMPERATURES...WITH
LESSER ATTENTION ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE LONG
RANGE MODELS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH MID TEENS LIKELY FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...ACROSS THE WEST...SLIGHT WARMING WILL TAKE HOLD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...THUS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
DESPITE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CANADIAN
HIGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL INTO
THE LOW TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA....BUT SHOULD REBOUND NICELY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPS PUSH H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C FOR MOST
PLACES. WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM
SOME 10-15 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN THAT ON WEDNESDAY. A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DEEP SNOWPACK PRESENT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS KVTN IS STILL REPORTING 9" OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE BACK HIGHS IN THIS AREA...WITH
ANTICIPATED FORECAST MAXIMUMS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLEST
MET GUIDANCE.

BEYOND THURSDAY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...THERE IS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL NOW FROM THE GFS FRIDAY
EVENING AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.  GFS
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE
NOW SUGGESTING A 6 HR OR SO PERIOD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR LIGHT QPF...GEM DATA ALSO YIELDS SUPPORT.  THE EC
IS DRY WITH THE SYSTEM AND ENSEMBLES GENERATE LESS THAN 0.01" OF AN
INCH OF QPF...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WAIT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSISTENCY.  THE SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.  HIGHS ARE SHOWN TO COOL ABOUT 5
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  SUNDAY IS INTERESTING...AND IT MUST BE SAID
AGAIN THAT MODEL CONTINUITY IS POOR AT BEST.  THE GFS AND EC HAVE
BASICALLY FLIP-FLOPPED FROM LAST NIGHT WITH THE GFS CAMP NOW SHOWING
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...THE EC IS MUCH WARMER WITH H85
T/S SOME 10-15C HIGHER THAN THE GFS.  WITH THE POOR
CONSISTENCY...WILL FAVOR THE ALLBLEND APPROACH WHICH INDICATES A
SIMILAR WEST /WARMER/ TO EAST /COLDER/ GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA AS SEEN ON SATURDAY.  BEYOND SUNDAY A SLIGHT
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS SHOWN AS PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT
USHERS MOST OF THE COLDEST AIR AND UPPER ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND PREVAILING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
STRATUS SHOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE VALENTINE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND INTO NORTH PLATTE BY MID EVENING. AS MENTIONED
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THINKING NOT ENOUGH IMPACT TO MENTION IN THE
VALENTINE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR