000
FXUS63 KLBF 232013
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A disturbance across the Tetons will approach the Black hills
tonight. The RAP, HRRR and HRRR exp suggest an isolated thunderstorm
may affect Pine Ridge. Strong heating and a dryline bulge across
Pine Ridge Monday afternoon could spark isolated thunderstorms as
suggested by the NAM.

The temperature forecast uses blended bias corrected data for lows
in the 50s and 60s tonight. The same strategy Monday produces highs
into 90s to low 100s. H700mb rise to 12C at North Platte and
approach 14C at Valentine where warmest highs will occur. Dry air
should keep heat indices below 100 in most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

H700mb temperatures Tuesday warm to 13-14C at North Platte and 15C
at Valentine. This should support highs of 100 to 105 in these
areas. A heat advisory would eventually be needed in some areas. For
this forecast it would appear to be generally along and east of
highway 83.

Outflow dominant storms should fire near or north of the SD late
Tuesday afternoon. H500mb winds are about 15kt and the storms will
fire along a cold front.

The cold front should drift through the forecast area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The SREF was signaling heavy rain and was the fastest
model with moisture return. The GFS and NAM are much more modest.
The drought could certainly limit rainfall as it has this month in
many locations. POPs are 30-50 percent Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.

Dry and cooler weather should prevail Wednesday through Sunday with
northwest flow aloft. The subtropical ridge retreats west into the
desert Southwest and h700mb temperature fall to 10-12C supporting
highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances are mostly isolated after Wednesday and none of the
models are signaling . The northwest flow will be strong and back
door high pressure will limit moisture return until Friday when a
cold front will move through. A second high pressure system moves in
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A disturbance across the Tetons will approach the Black hills
tonight. The RAP, HRRR and HRRR exp suggest an isolated thunderstorm
may affect Pine Ridge 06z-09z. Otherwise VFR is expected this
afternoon, tonight and Monday morning.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC