000
FXUS63 KLBF 040531
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WAS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE RISK FOR INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM AND POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER