Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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540
FXUS63 KLBF 270040 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
740 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The RAP...HRRR and HRRREXP models suggest isolated showers this
evening across western Nebraska. The forcing is very weak and
moisture will gradually be increasing overnight. The showers should
end by 9 or 10 pm cdt.

The increase in moisture with precipitable water approaching 1/2
inch will coincide with a weak approaching upper level
trof...currently across the Panhandle. The models continue to
advertise fog by morning and the SREF was the basis for the fog
forecast. Weak radiational cooling would appear to be a limiting
factor for dense fog but drier air may move in aloft toward morning.

Clearing skies should develop 15z-21z Monday from west to east. A
blend of guidance plus bias correction suggested highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Blended model data plus bias correction suggested
lows in the 30s tonight. Dew points will remain in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Very active pattern this week across much of the country. A series
of Pacific storm systems will track east and amplify, creating
widespread rain in the plains and mountain snow. Some snow may mix
in across the western high plains, but accumulations seem unlikely
at this time due to mild temperatures.

The first system will cross the area slowly Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific northwest,
and be located across northern New Mexico by late Tuesday afternoon
where it will have closed off. Deep southerly mid and upper level
flow from TX to NE ahead of the system, with bands of rain moving
northward within the flow Tuesday through Tuesday night. By
Wednesday evening the system will have migrated to western Oklahoma,
with a deformation band of rain poised to it`s northwest. At this
time it appears that our far southeast portions from O`Neill to
Broken Bow to North Platte stand the best shot of getting in on this
deformation band of precipitation, but a slight northward shift of
the system would mean more of the area seeing precipitation from the
band. By Thursday this will shift east of the area with some
sunshine within area of subsidence aloft behind the system. Right
now thinking a widespread 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain will
accumulate from this first system, with the 1.00 inch amounts most
likely where the deformation band of precipitation sets up, which
would appear to be across the southeast one quarter of forecast
area.

A second system takes a similar path and dives southeast into
northern New Mexico by Saturday. It too is forecasted to close off
and then track eastward across the central and southern plains
through the weekend. Chance pops will remain in the forecast for
this system, with the best chances at this time appearing to reside
across the southern half of Nebraska.

As far as temperatures this week, mild conditions with near normal
highs in the 50s. Lows however will average a bit above normal in
the mid 30s to lower 40s due to abundant cloud cover and expected
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloudy over western Nebraska this evening with some breaks in the
Panhandle. Low clouds and stratus east of a line from KANW to KBBW
and to the west of this line mid and high clouds. Showers over
south central Nebraska trying to spread to the northeast. After
6z stratus will expand over western Nebraska again tonight with
patchy areas of fog. Cigs and visibilities will fall into MVFR
categories towards sunrise. Some IFR cigs possible over southwest
Nebraska .


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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