Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 252358
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA WITH RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE INBETWEEN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH WILL PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT. A JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL HELP THE SYSTEM TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE LOW
THROUGH KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. LOWER
LEVELS /1500 TO 5000 FT AGL/ WILL SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. ABOVE THIS LAYER...WARM
MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 200 AM CST. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND MIGRATE TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN
WITH A DRY LINE BULGE OVER TAKING THE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DURING THE MORNING EXPECT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR I-80
AND THEN MOVING NORTH FROM THERE. AGAIN EXPECT THAT SOME OF THESE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE ATTENTION
TURNS TO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE.
EXPECT A NARROW RIBBON OF 2000+ J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FRONTIER...HAYES AND CHASE
COUNTIES. BACKED SURFACE FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL 0 TO 1 KM HELICITY TO OVER 200 M/S^2. EXPECT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 21Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A SMALL
REGION ALONG AND ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE
THREAT QUICKLY DECREASING TO THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COOL AND STABLE DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS.
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
HOWEVER...SO LARGE HAIL A THREAT FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CHEYENNE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOW 50S WITH STRONG ASCENT INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 JOULES /KG2 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY2. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE NORTH OVER NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX OUT OF FORECAST OVER
NORTHWEST ZONES...SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY FOR NOW WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING MUCAPES THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN
WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SYSTEM MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN ZONES HAVE GONE DEFINITE
TO THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BUT STILL A
SLIGHT DIURNAL TREND WITH 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST AND
SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THURSDAY A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EXITING
SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED
AND WILL USE VICINITY WORDING UNTIL BETTER TIMING IS KNOWN. THE
LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHOWERS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...HOWEVER COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK


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