Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161126 CCA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Temperature trends and wind guidance suggest Sheridan county can be
added to the wind chill warning in effect this morning. Temperatures
are -10F to -20F and a 5 mph wind is suggested by the models this
morning. The 08z RTMA product indicates -30F wind chill readings are
currently underway. The rest of the wind chill warning and advisory
appears to be on track.

The temperature forecast today uses the RAP model plus bias
correction for highs in the teens to around 20. H850mb temperatures
rise from around -20C to -10C and nearly full sun is expected. The
bank of stratus across ncntl Neb is associated with cold air
advection and should move off east this morning.

The temperature forecast tonight uses a blend of bias corrected
guidance for lows mostly in the single digits. A few subzero lows
are expected in the Platte river valleys and Custer county. South
winds develop this afternoon which continue tonight and h850mb
temperatures rise another 10C to around 0C by Wednesday morning. The
model guidance suggests winds will be light enough tonight for
decoupling and radiational cooling across the south where lows reach
or go below zero. No wind chill advisory or warning will be needed
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main forecast challenges over the extended period include
temperatures midweek and snow potential over the weekend. An upper
level ridge spreads east onto the Plains, which is responsible for a
warmup. The ridge then breaks down and gives way to a closed low,
increasing wintry precip chances. At the surface, the 1050mb high
drifts southeast and stalls along the Gulf Coast. Behind it, a
Pacific cool front crosses the northern Plains late week and is
followed by a rapidly deepening lee side low (associated with the
closed upper low).

Wednesday through Friday... Guidance continues to come in warmer
during this stretch with the axis of the H5 ridge bisecting the
forecast area late Thursday. Persistent downslope flow and fair
skies result in efficient warming as H85 temps reach 5C Wed and 10C
Thu. Early Friday, the thermal ridge crosses the region, pushing H85
temps toward 15C (99%ile of climo). Raised highs Wed and Thu at
least a couple degrees as the blend came in near the cooler
solutions. Forecast highs are probably still too cool, especially
once the snowpack melts (presumably by Wed). Current forecast calls
for lower 40s Wed, lower 50s Thu, and mid 50s Fri. For reference,
records are in the mid/upper 60s.

Saturday and beyond... The cold front is progged to clear the
forecast area by Saturday morning, keeping highs near normal in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. The fropa will likely be dry, but mid
level fgen really strengthens midday Sat with the approaching low.
Attention turns toward the center of the system, which passes the
CWA on Sunday. The ECM and GFS are fairly consistent in keeping
the H5 low along NE/KS border and the sfc low across
southern/eastern KS. With three straight 00z runs suggesting
similar storm strength and movement (aside from minor timing
differences), felt confident to include likely PoPs. For now, the
main ptype appears to be snow as the bulk of the event occurs at
night and saturation occurs in the DGZ aloft. However, with no
very cold air nearby or upstream (H85 temps generally 0 to -5C),
daytime precip could be a mixed bag. Depending if the sfc low
tracks farther north, winds would also be stronger, increasing
blowing snow potential. Overall, chances look good for some
measureable snow for western Nebraska, but the brunt of the
moisture stays east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR is generally expected all areas today and tonight.

The area of MVFR cigs across ncntl Nebraska is expected to move
south and east this morning and exit the area by 18z. Otherwise,
strong arctic high pressure will move across Nebraska today and
tonight. Generally clear skies with a few high clouds are expected
during this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NEZ022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071.

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NEZ004>010-026>029-038-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC



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