Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202327
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Latest visible and IR satellite imagery shows cu field developing
across central and north central NEB, elsewhere altocu and high
clouds are present across the Sandhills and southwest NEB. A few
modest returns have been seen in the far south on the local radar
display, but no thunderstorms/showers. Latest water vapor imagery
shows an upper level trough over the West Coast with a short wave
offshore far southern CA. There is a decent swath of moisture to
the east moving across the western portion of the Southwest US
into CO and KS. Otherwise, flow is rather zonal across western NEB
with upper level ridge building across the Southern High Plains.
At the surface, a lee-side low is located in far eastern CO-
western KS with a stationary front across northwest KS to south
central NEB to northeast NEB. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon and evening, however,
confidence is low in this occurring.

Attention then turns to tonight and tomorrow, particularly
revolving around the eclipse. Current deterministic forecast is
for increasing clouds late this evening through the small hours.
The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to lift north
tonight as a warm front. While deterministic guidance shows
differing solutions with respect to how far north it progresses,
current thinking is it will lift near to just north of the
Interstate 80 corridor in far southwest NEB into central NEB.
Anticipate then stratus forming near and north of this feature in
the small hours given current thinking, and based on deterministic
guidance and SREF products. Patchy fog is also expected to form
across the Sandhills to the Interstate 80 corridor. Fog should
be more favored in the Sandhills than in the Interstate 80
corridor at this time.

Low stratus and any patchy fog that develops is expected to begin
mixing out approaching mid morning. Thereafter, will then contend
with some patches of mid and high level clouds as well, thinking
mainly the latter. Thinking at this time is scattered to broken
cloud cover (i.e., partly sunny for most) at the time of the
eclipse with more lingering lower clouds (low and mid) in the
central Sandhills north towards the NEB-SD border. Regarding the
range of possibilities with respect to sky cover, progression of
the front will be important and appears most notable. If the
boundary doesn`t move as far north, think this will yield more
clouds in the early morning in the Interstate 80 corridor.
Evaluating satellite and trends will be important in the next
forecast package as we get closer. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms then look probable across portions of western NEB
Monday afternoon and evening. Lows will be mild tomorrow with lows
forecast 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal values. Highs near
to slightly below seasonal normal values tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Northwest flow aloft will flatten during the period as weak mid
level ridging builds northward across the central plains. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from time to
time, but with the lack of any notable disturbance, the chance for
widespread thunderstorms or heavy rain is unlikely to occur.

As far as temperatures, they will average near normal for the week,
with highs mostly in the 80s. The warmest highs will be across the
panhandle where upper 80s are possible, the cooler highs around 80
will be found across eastern portions of north central Nebraska
around the O`Neill area. In between generally expect highs in the
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

A frontal boundary is forecast to lift north tonight and extend
from near O`Neill through Ainsworth and Alliance. Along and north
of this front, mvfr cigs are expected and are expected to impact
the KVTN terminal from 11z through 17z Monday. Further south,
a period of MVFR ceilings near BKN025 will be possible at the
KLBF terminal from 10z-14z. Coverage will be broken to overcast
across the sandhills around 12z Monday, scattering out by mid to
late morning Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg


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