Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Strong shortwave currently seen in water vapor imagery is tracking
northeast across New Mexico. A stationary front is located
across KS. As this shortwave tracks northeast toward eastern
Colorado and Western Kansas, a surface low will deepen across
eastern Colorado tonight. This will cause the warm front to lift
northward into far southwest ans southern Nebraska by late this
evening. This would be the area of concern for possible surface
based convection developing this evening, and it is possible that
an isolated tornado could develop in addition to damaging winds
and large hail. Farther north mid level warm air advection will be
strong with more elevated thunderstorm activity. These still
could pose the risk for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
Late tonight the shortwave will become negatively tilted and form
a tight closed upper low. It appears southwest Nebraska will be
in the favored location for a deformation zone of locally heavy
rain on the immediate northwest side of the upper low, and have
added the mention of heavy rain to the forecast.

Upper low moves into eastern Nebraska during the day Wednesday,
with continued wrap around light to moderate rain continuing
during the morning hours across southwest Nebraska, and through
much of the day across northern Nebraska. Winds will increase from
the northwest on backside of the surface low, with some gusts to
30 mph likely.

Total rainfall for tonight through Wednesday should generally
range between 0.50 to 1.50 inches, with a few spots possibly
receiving 2.00 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

The large scale pattern will be fairly amplified at the beginning
of the period with cyclonic flow aloft and two closed lows. A
mid-level closed low is expected to be located over southern
ID/northern UT and another one is expected to be located in the
Middle Missouri Valley early Wednesday Night. The former low will
track into the aforementioned area from the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday Night and Wednesday. The latter upper low will be lifting
northeast into the Upper Great Lakes and weakening into an open
wave early Thursday. A broad trough will persist aloft Thursday
through Friday. The trough will initially be over the Northern
Rockies-Central Great Basin-Southwest US and will then move
eastward into the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains
Friday. A pair of disturbances will affect the region Thursday
afternoon-Friday wherein two shortwave troughs will rotate around.
Overall, increased chances for precipitation are expected
Thursday afternoon through Friday. Of note, there will be chances
for rain/snow mix, possible all snow, late Thursday into early
Friday morning given thermal profiles over portions of Sheridan Co
and extreme western Cherry county. However, little accumulation
is expected.

Beyond Friday, chances for precipitation will be trending downward
late through Saturday. The closed low initially over the Central
High Plains Friday night is forecast to lift northeastward into
the MN Arrowhead region sometime Sunday. However, there are
differences in phase and amplitude with this evolution beyond
Friday night. Another concern in the extended revolves around
temperatures with respect to the potential for frost mainly over
the eastern Neb Panhandle and northwest NEB with the best
potential Saturday morning at this time. While temperatures
approach 30 F Saturday morning, winds will be a concern with light
breezes expected. Frost may be a concern again Sunday morning in
portions of northwest NEB.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, followed by rain
Wednesday. Ceilings are forecast to fall to MVFR at KLBF after
12z, and to IFR at VTN after 12z. North to northwest winds will
also gust to 20 to 25 kts after 12z also.




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