Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
704 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A couple of mid level disturbances moving across the region today
and tonight. The first wave is pushing across central Neb late
this afternoon. Then with some clearing a few convective showers
have developed across western Nebraska. These early evening
showers could see a few lightning strikes as neg LI and some weak
CAPE is in place. Another disturbance will drift across the area
overnight with yet additional chances for precip. In general
precip amounts will be light with less than a tenth of an inch and
likely most only seeing a trace to a few hundreds. Especially with
the overnight activity as dry lower levels and top down saturation
will have to take place first. By tomorrow morning some linger
activity possible across n central otherwise decreasing cloud
cover expected. Temps chilly this afternoon with highs about 5 to
10 degrees below normal. Another chilly day expected tomorrow as
cold air remains across the area, highs in the mid 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The main challenges in the long term period were temperatures and
dew points/humidity; otherwise, concerns for sensible weather
impacts across western and north central NEB were low at this
time. Areas will see mostly sunny/mostly clear skies Friday
through early Monday followed by generally increased sky cover
Monday and beyond. A warming trend will begin Friday that is
anticipated to hold through the period wherein highs will be
generally 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Generally, precipitation
chances will remain scant as conditions during the period are
expected to stay dry.

Tomorrow Night through Saturday: The mid-level broad trough over
the central CONUS will have amplified and will now be positioned
over the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley at the
start of the period. Meanwhile, a ridge aloft will have built
over the Northern High Plains to Intermountain West. Modest height
rises will have spread over the local forecast area Thursday with
weak height rises still occurring Thursday Night-Friday. The
aforementioned trough will then continue to deepen over the next
48 hours as it advances eastward, moving over the Northeast to
Southeast CONUS by Saturday. Further, the ridge west of the trough
will continue to build eastward and will be over the Southern
Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley by the end of the period.
In the meantime, a weak surface trough will form across the
central High Plains that will result in light southerly winds
overnight  keeping lows Friday morning near to slightly above
normal. The surface trough will then lift eastward Friday with
broad surface high pressure present across the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Southern Plains.

The large scale pattern will kickoff a warming trend that is
expected to persist into the beginning of the new work week.
While weak northwest winds will be present at low-levels and 850
hPa Friday, 850 hPa temperatures will increase to 11-15 C that
will help highs reach into the lower 70s in southwest NEB to mid-
upper 60s in north central NEB. The atmospheric column will see
substantial drying Friday into Friday night. This dry column will
then persist into Saturday. Stronger southerly flow then develops
at low-levels Friday Night-Saturday. Meanwhile, winds aloft at
mid-levels become zonal with modest westerlies, 30-40 kts,
expected to be in place overhead by Saturday morning. A lee side
surface trough them deepens near the Front Range and central High
Plains with 850 hPa temperatures rising about 14-20 C Saturday,
warmest in the eastern NEB Panhandle. As such, Saturday is
expected to be the warmest day this weekend, with highs forecast
in the mid to upper 70s in extreme southwest NEB to around 70 in
north central NEB. In response to the deepening surface trough, we
will see an increase in winds at the surface in the early
afternoon, about 10-15 kts with gusts possible to 18-20 kts.

Saturday Night through Wednesday: Despite a small decrease in
highs Sunday, areas will still read above normal high
temperatures. The mid-level ridge aloft will then see some
movement in the beginning of this period, as the ridge advances a
bit farther east, then building Monday as it becomes positioned
across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Northern Plains.
Thereafter, the pattern aloft progresses and there are a few
disturbance in the embedded flow Monday-Wednesday moving eastward
across the Central Plains. However, there are appreciable
differences in the deterministic guidance in phase and amplitude
this far out. Main consequence at this time is a slight increase
in PoPs Tuesday-Wednesday, however, this period looks to be
rather dry based on the large scale pattern presently. Otherwise,
above-normal highs are expected to prevail through the rest of
this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A disturbance has moved into western Nebraska and will aid in
shower development tonight. For the KLBF and KVTN terminals,
vicinity shower is forecast from 02z-10z. From 08z-12Z, mvfr
ceilings as low as ovc015 are possible. At KLBF, vfr connditions
are forecast. After 12z, clearing skies will occur through the
morning, with mainly sunny skies in the afternoon. Light winds
below 10 kts throughout the taf period.


Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

After a couple of more seasonably to seasonably cool days, temps to
climb for Friday into the weekend and continue into next week. RH
values across western Neb at times will fall to 15 to 20 percent
however winds will remain less than 20 mph. Thus at times fire
weather conditions will be elevated and will continue to be




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