Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291752
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 3 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

An active H5 pattern continues across the CONUS and Canada
tonight. The main features of note across the lower 48 and Canada
were shortwave troughs off the coast of SRN California, across the
eastern Dakotas and a tropical storm off the coast of South
Carolina. A decent H5 low was noted over southwestern Canada INVOF
of British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. Upstream of this
feature, a ridge of high pressure was present over western Alaska.
Across the Central Plains, a weak upper level disturbance
triggered showers and thunderstorms across western and north
central Nebraska earlier this evening. This activity has weakened
considerably over the past one to two hours and current radar
imagery as of 3 AM CDT has little or no returns across the eastern
half of the forecast area. Current surface analysis has a
stationary front extending from far northwestern Colorado into the
northern Nebraska panhandle and central South Dakota. Across
western and north central Nebraska, skies were generally clear
with the exception of some lingering clouds in the east.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 48 at Ogallala to 60 at
O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 3 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and tonight are the
main forecasting concern in the short range. For today, subsidence
will continue behind the exiting disturbance this morning which
will lead to clear skies and dry conditions across the forecast
area. With this in mind, decided to eliminate any mention of
precipitation in the forecast through the mid afternoon hours. By
late afternoon, the threat for thunderstorms will begin to
increase as a shortwave trough pushes east of the front ranges of
Colorado and Wyoming. As the leading edge of the shortwave enters
the Panhandle and western portions of the sand hills, it will
encounter increased moisture, leading to the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Storms will become better
organized this evening in particular across northern Nebraska
where a stalled out frontal boundary is expected to reside. With
this in mind, decided to focus my highest pops this evening in
northern Nebraska INVOF the frontal boundary.

Thunderstorm activity will shift east this evening with the threat
ending in the west during the overnight hours. As for temperatures
today and tonight, the latest MET, MAV and EC guidance are in good
agreement over the next 24 hours, and a blend of persistence, MET
and MAV guidance was used for the high and low forecast for today
and tonight. This yielded highs in the lower 80s this afternoon
and lows in the mid 50s for tonight. Finally, in regards to the
severe threat later today into this evening, it appears fairly
minimal ATTM as bulk 0-6 KM shear is weak on the order of 10 to 20
KTS with 15 to 25 KTS across northern Nebraska.

.Hydrology...Minor to moderate flood conditions continue along the
North Platte river-above and below lake McConaughy, and along the
Platte River in eastern Lincoln County. Minor flooding was
occurring at Lisco on the North Platte River and at Brady on the
main stem Platte River. Stages as of last night were 4.2 feet at
Lisco and 7.5 feet at Brady. Moderate flooding was occurring at
Lewellen and North Platte along the North Platte River with the
current stages of 8.8 feet and 6.8 feet at Lewellen and North
Platte respectively. Elevated river levels will continue along the
South Platte River at Roscoe and North Platte. At this time, no
flooding is expected along the South Platte River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 3 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

unsettled weather remains Monday into Tuesday as closed upper low
drops southeast across the northern plains then lifts northeast
overnight into wednesday morning. mid and long range models are in
fair agreement with the slow movement of the upper low that will
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms late Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. a slight risk for severe thunderstorms as
the surface front moves southeast and the dryline extends south
on the high plains. The upper low spins that will cause a slow
transition of the frontal system out of the plains. If models are
right we`ll transition to a warmer and drier pattern wednesday
night through Friday as the upper ridge builds east. temperatures
will trend upwards beyond wednesday with some high approaching
near 90 on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Quiet aviation conditions through Sunday afternoon.
Scattered clouds will begin to develop across KVTN and KLBF by
mid- afternoon, however, ceilings will remain above 5000 feet.
Isolated thunderstorms arrive late evening at both terminals,
causing visibilities to drop and brief gusty winds. Thunderstorms
will push out of the area by daybreak with VFR conditions
returning for Monday morning.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Keck
AVIATION...Kulik


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