Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161815 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
115 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

At 08z...A surface trough of low pressure extended from north
central Montana through eastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska
panhandle into eastern Colorado. A pacific cold front currently
moving through western Montana, as a warm front is pushing through
western Nebraska. Temperatures across western Nebraska remain on the
mild side from 35 to 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Today...The upper ridge flattens out across the region as the
Pacific cold front advances through northwest South Dakota this
afternoon. A surface trough will push east through most of western
Nebraska, with westerly winds turning northwest and increasing this
afternoon west of an Ainsworth through Broken Bow line. The
strongest winds of 20 to 35 mph will occur from the eastern
Panhandle into the western Sandhills, with breezy conditions
eastward through highway 83. Lighter south winds in the east this
morning turn southwest to west this afternoon at 5-15 mph. A strong
warmup today as 850 mb temps from 16-20C mix down over most of the
area. This will push highs up into the upper 70s near highway 2, to
80-85 degrees across west central and southwest Nebraska. Less
mixing across the northeast zones with highs from 65-75. Drier air
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s will spread east behind the
surface trough to just east of a Valentine through Broken Bow line.
The combination of dry fuels, wind gusts to 25 mph or higher, and
low RH values of 15 percent or less, requires the continuance for
the Red Flag Warning across the southwestern half of the forecast
area this afternoon and early evening. Refer to the fire weather
section for more details.

Tonight...The Pacific cold front will sweep south and exit the area
after midnight. This will bring an increase in cloudiness. A few
sprinkles are possible across far northern Nebraska, but will leave
dry, as support for isolated showers in southern South Dakota.
Overnight lows near previous forecast in the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Upper level ridging will dominate the overall weather pattern the
next several days across the region.

A Pacific cold front will bring cooler and slightly more moist air
to the region Friday, which will alleviate the fire danger.
Northwest wind gusts near 35 mph are possible across north central
Nebraska during the afternoon due to deep mixing and weak to
moderate cold air advection. A surface ridge will be building into
western through southwest Nebraska and keep winds lighter.

South winds will develop Saturday to the east of a leeward surface
trough developing along the front range. This surface trough will
advance east Sunday with another blast of warm, dry westerly winds
in it`s wake. Fire danger may again reach the critical threshold
during the afternoon across western and southwest Nebraska.

The next Pacific cold front arrives Monday, with a pattern shift to
cooler and wetter conditions for next week. Models indicate a lead
shortwave will advance east Monday night into Tuesday with at least
scattered rain and snow showers possible. A stronger Pacific storm
will move into California midweek then advance east into the central
plains by Thursday. Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity will
accompany this system, with little chance for snow at this time due
to warm temperatures. Will continue to monitor the model trends.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions expected across western Nebraska through Friday
afternoon. Winds will be the main aviation concern with west winds
gusting to 25kts this afternoon across most of western Nebraska.
Winds will gust out of the northwest at 25 kts Friday afternoon
east of a line from KBBW to KVTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Critical fire weather conditions This afternoon and early evening
for fire zones 204, 206, 210, and 219. Highs in these zones will
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, with near 85 possible in zone 210
and 219. Minimum RH values in these zones will be 15 percent or
less. Winds will also increase out of the west northwest from 20 to
35 mph.

Near critical fire weather conditions in Custer and Loup county with
minimum RH as low as 15 percent and winds west northwest 10 to 20
mph. These areas will be highlighted in an SPS and need to be
watched. Zone 208 and remainder of 209 will see minimum RH higher
from 20 to 38 percent and lighter winds.

Fire weather conditions may become elevated on Sunday with highs
returning to the upper 70s and lower 80s, and westerly winds
increasing behind a surface trough.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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