000
FXUS63 KLBF 070541
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
TOMORROW /FRIDAY/. AS A RESULT...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DECENT LIFT AND
SATURATION WITHIN THE BAND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY /LASTING
JUST A FEW HOURS/ AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY...GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT COULD
EITHER FALL AS WET SNOW OR RAIN. LIKELY WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER IT WILL BE MORE IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW...AND LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. EITHER WAY...LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED...AND IF IT DOES ACCUMULATE IT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

AFTER THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE STATE. THE FRONT THEN
BEGINS TO RE-FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
WARMING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE WILL LIFT MOIST
AIR UP OVER THE FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
INDICATES FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AND LEFT-FRONT INDIRECT UPWARD
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK. A CROSS-SECTION OF THE
AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOWS SATURATED AIR LIFTED THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THOUGH THE LOWEST 2KM MEAN TEMPERATURE IS ABOVE
0C INITIALLY...THE WET BULB IS BELOW 0C AND THE LAYER MEAN
TEMPERATURE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THERE IS ONLY A SIX TO TWELVE HOUR WINDOW FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IF THE
PHASE WERE TO BE ALL FROZEN...THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GIVEN BY THE
MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE SNOWFALL TOTALS LESS THAN FOUR INCHES
BUT MORE THAN TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR
POSSIBLE BY 11Z AT KVTN SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. UNCERTAINTY
HOWEVER IN DURATION THROUGH THE DAY AND MENTION ONLY A SCT025
ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 15 KTS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF KVTN. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITHIN THE BAND...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AT KLBF...VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLBF BETWEEN 17Z AND
20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG