000
FXUS63 KLBF 290951
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED THAT THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS MOVED
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO...WYOMING AND MONTANA TO A LOW CENTERED ON THE
BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THEN...BY LATE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE ONCE AGAIN. THE RESULT OF THE ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY SEE LOW 50S.
SIMILARLY...WITH THE FRONT STICKING AROUND THE AREA...NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL NO BE QUITE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

THE MOIST AIR INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BRING PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS IT LIFTS UP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

FAIRLY NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
A DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON SATURDAY THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL HAVE SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES AND A WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PUT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BOTH THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE MIDDLE...WILL
NOT GET ANY STRONG INFLUENCE EITHER WAY. A FEW WEAK FRONTS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA...BUT THE COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A FLOW OF WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UP TO THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATES WEST FURTHER INTO THE
PACIFIC AND CUTS OFF. ALSO BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM STAYING WELL OUT OVER THE OCEAN...THE NORTHERN
LOW WON/T HAVE ANY OBSTRUCTIONS AS IT DIGS SOUTH DOWN THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS TAKES
PLACE...AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE GENERAL TREND SEEN IS SLOWER IN TERMS OF PUSHING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE COUNTRY ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
SO STILL DON/T HAVE A STRONGLY CONFIDENT FORECAST. DID TREND THE
FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...WHICH DELAYS PRECIPITATION
IN MOST PLACES APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS WELL AS DELAYS THE INCOMING COLDER ARCTIC AIR.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN MOST AREAS LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK MAY
KEEP A DRY SLOT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THIS EVENT SO ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE MUCH THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. AS COLD AIR IS PULLED INTO
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS WELL LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE IS STILL PLENTIFUL COLD AIR AS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AT LEAST -7C TO -12C ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF IS AND HAS
BEEN THE COLDEST SOLUTION BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES START TO DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
FURTHER CHANGES FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS IF ANY SNOWFALL IS RECEIVED BY NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

VISIBILITIES DROPPING SOME OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT
AND HAVE RETAINED IN TAF FOR KLBF. STRATUS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND MAY MAKE AS FAR NORTH AS KVTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
TEN MILES AND HOUR TONIGHT INCREASING TO TEN TO 20 MPH ON FRIDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER