000
FXUS63 KLBF 040946
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE QUEBEC LOW INTO
NEW ENGLAND. WV IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN
ALBERTA. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH A JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CST TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AT AINSWORTH...TO
27 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...AND A SECOND WILL TRACK ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS A JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS
TODAY DISPLAYED A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH THE MET GUIDANCE
BEING MUCH COOLER THAN THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE MEMBERS AS HIGHS SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN BY ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. P TYPES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NERN CWA ARE INDICATIVE OF A SHALLOW WARM LAYER
INITIALLY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAKER FORCING LOCATED ACROSS
THE NERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE OPTED FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM.

FOR TONIGHT...A SECOND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
ACROSS SRN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS FROM NERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY ARE INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF...BUT
POTENT AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NERN COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA FROM MID
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AS FOR PTYPES THIS
EVENING...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SNOW...WITH NO THREAT OF FREEZING PCPN ATTM. DECIDED TO
LIMIT ANY THREAT OF RAIN TO THE EVENING HRS...AS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ALL SUB FREEZING TEMPS AFTER 06Z. QPF`S WILL BE HIGHEST OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 0.1 INCHES
EXPECTED IN THE SWRN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
LIMITED ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY WHEN AND HOW FAR EAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE CWA. ATTM...THERE/S HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
40S. EAST OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A GREAT LAKES ARCTIC HIGH SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...YIELDING HIGHS OF ONLY THE LOWER 30S FOR OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
NICELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH PROMOTES H85 T/S OF 8C OR HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MIXING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TRAPPED MOISTURE /STRATUS/ IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE GENERAL TREND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S /NORTHEAST/...TO NEAR 60F /SOUTHWEST/...BUT THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE BUST. ARCTIC FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ACROSS/TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WITH CAA TARGETING THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LOWER SOME 20
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN INDICATING A SATURATED DGZ
WITH FORCING ARRIVING WITH THE APPROACHING SW TROUGH AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ATTM SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEM TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
SEEING QPF. ALLBLEND PROCEDURE MAINTAINED SUB 45 PERCENT POPS IN
THIS AREA...WHICH SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THE COOLDOWN AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION DONT STAY LONG AS HEIGHT RISES AND WAA SPREAD EAST
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. H85 TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
10C FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE DISPLAYED WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...YIELDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE WEEKEND
WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. DEW POINT
SPREADS MINIMAL OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND SOME BR HAD DEVELOPED.
BELIEVE MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER