Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 302319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS THREE SHORTWAVES
NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THE FIRST OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS...A
SECOND OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND A THIRD OVER SRN COLORADO. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS. ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...SRLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...2 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 57 AT VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH...TO 62 AT
BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A SCT DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SCT DECK TO HELP PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE WARMEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOWER TO MID 50S TD/S BY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IS IN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE NAM
DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY /MORNING/ WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY /AFTERNOON/ WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECOND IMPULSE.  THE GFS GENERALLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE.  AT THIS POINT
FAVORING AFTERNOON STORMS WHICH FIRST FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA /ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/...THEN THE STORMS SHOULD
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUNDINGS FROM WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND CAPE /GENERATED FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES/ FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF A STRONG STORM OR
TWO...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FLOW NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED SRLY
WINDS WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND HIGH 50S IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
WYOMING AND SERN MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS TOMORROW
EVENING COULD LEAD TO A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE STORM IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...RESULTING IN SB CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z
TUESDAY. LIKE SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM
EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE MON AFTERNOON...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN H850 JET ORIENTED FROM
WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KTS WILL FACILITATE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HRS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ATTM
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GREATER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST OVER SRN SD. ON
TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HEATING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
PUSH CAPES UP TO 4000J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WEAKER ALLEVIATING THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
WILL REACH 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING...SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FCST K INDEXES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. ATTM...THIS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED.

.LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO SWRLY MIDWEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY WEEK LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER LAYER PW/S
REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK SO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SUNDAY MORNING...RETURN
MOISTURE FROM MISSOURI THROUGH ERN NEB COULD PRODUCE THE CIGS WHICH
LIFT TO VFR/MVFR AT 18Z.

OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE.  NEAR STEADY RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.  HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD EFFECT RIVER LEVELS.  PLEASE CHECK THE
LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





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