Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 120943
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Another weak wave will transit western Nebraska tonight in southwest
flow. Models in fair agreement with this feature and have trended
towards NAM solutions. Feature rides across on +130kt upper level
jet. Favorable upglide southerly flow with 1046mb surface high
centered over the eastern Dakotas. An inch or less north and east of
a line from Alliance to North Platte. Southerly flow and clouds
tonight will hold temperatures up. Lows in the teens and 20s.

Weak upper level cold front with brisk northwest winds across
northern Nebraska this morning  Increasing moisture and mid and high
clouds today with Pacific moisture streaming across western
Nebraska. With fresh snow cover and clouds have gone on the
conservative side of guidance with daytime highs. Some below zero
apparent t`s over northern Nebraska early this morning. Not cold
enough for an advisory will handle with Nowcast and mention in the
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

12z Friday and beyond.  A closed upper level low will dig from
southern California into Baja Friday and eventually work east into
the Desert Southwest late this weekend.  The system is forecast to
take on a negative tilt as it moves into New Mexico.  Ahead of the
low, moisture off the Gulf of Mexico is shown to rapidly work
northward into Nebraska late this weekend.  With anomalously high
moisture in place, the low will track north northeast across western
Kansas late Sunday night and reach east Central Nebraska early on
Monday. The medium range models have wobbled the last several days
on the track of the h5 low with the latest wobble west.  The
deformation is shown to impact our southeastern zones early Monday
with a mix bag of precipitation.  The ECMWF westward wobble tonight
would suggest a deformation of moderate precipitation from southwest
Nebraska through north central Nebraska, thus impacting much more of
the forecast area.

Bufkit soundings in the area of interest still largely favor snow
and rain, but enough of a warm nose could provide for some freezing
rain and/or sleet across southeastern portions of the forecast
area Sunday afternoon/night. Given that a degree or two in the
thermal fields would make a significant difference in
accumulations and ptypes and the models continue to wobble
greatly on those smaller scale features, we decided to continue
to keep things simple and go with snow or rain as the primary
weather. The system will have good moisture to work with, so
where in the deformation freezing precip or snow occurs,
measurable amounts would be anticipated. A sharp cutoff in qpf is
shown with the deformation, most if not all of the northwestern
zones will see little or no precipitation. The system continues
to lift northeast Monday night with snow exiting from southwest
to northeast.

Dry conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the
extended with seasonal or above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

With the exception of northern Nebraska, skies should gradually
clear overnight with scattered high clouds expected at the KLBF
terminal. For the KVTN terminal, ceilings of 3000 to 4000 FT AGL
are expected overnight. For Thursday scattered to broken ceilings
of 15000 to 20000 FT AGL are expected and will lower to 10000 FT
AGL by Thursday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Frazzle ice continues to impact area streams and rivers.  The North
Platte River above Lake Mcconaughy has seen fluctuations due to
minor ice jamming the past several days, most notably at Lewellen
and Lisco.  Warmer temperatures helped alleviate some of the ice
issues early this week, but colder temperatures have returned.  Will
continue a RVS for both sites until the ice issues are fully
resolved and upgrade if needed.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Jacobs



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