Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 262032
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The RAP...HRRR and HRRREXP models suggest isolated showers this
evening across western Nebraska. The forcing is very weak and
moisture will gradually be increasing overnight. The showers should
end by 9 or 10 pm cdt.

The increase in moisture with precipitable water approaching 1/2
inch will coincide with a weak approaching upper level
trof...currently across the Panhandle. The models continue to
advertise fog by morning and the SREF was the basis for the fog
forecast. Weak radiational cooling would appear to be a limiting
factor for dense fog but drier air may move in aloft toward morning.

Clearing skies should develop 15z-21z Monday from west to east. A
blend of guidance plus bias correction suggested highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Blended model data plus bias correction suggested
lows in the 30s tonight. Dew points will remain in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Very active pattern this week across much of the country. A series
of Pacific storm systems will track east and amplify, creating
widespread rain in the plains and mountain snow. Some snow may mix
in across the western high plains, but accumulations seem unlikely
at this time due to mild temperatures.

The first system will cross the area slowly Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific northwest,
and be located across northern New Mexico by late Tuesday afternoon
where it will have closed off. Deep southerly mid and upper level
flow from TX to NE ahead of the system, with bands of rain moving
northward within the flow Tuesday through Tuesday night. By
Wednesday evening the system will have migrated to western Oklahoma,
with a deformation band of rain poised to it`s northwest. At this
time it appears that our far southeast portions from O`Neill to
Broken Bow to North Platte stand the best shot of getting in on this
deformation band of precipitation, but a slight northward shift of
the system would mean more of the area seeing precipitation from the
band. By Thursday this will shift east of the area with some
sunshine within area of subsidence aloft behind the system. Right
now thinking a widespread 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain will
accumulate from this first system, with the 1.00 inch amounts most
likely where the deformation band of precipitation sets up, which
would appear to be across the southeast one quarter of forecast
area.

A second system takes a similar path and dives southeast into
northern New Mexico by Saturday. It too is forecasted to close off
and then track eastward across the central and southern plains
through the weekend. Chance pops will remain in the forecast for
this system, with the best chances at this time appearing to reside
across the southern half of Nebraska.

As far as temperatures this week, mild conditions with near normal
highs in the 50s. Lows however will average a bit above normal in
the mid 30s to lower 40s due to abundant cloud cover and expected
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Moisture is expected to increase tonight across Wrn and Ncntl
Nebraksa. The short range models suggest a return to LIFR
conditions in fog and low CIGS. The radiation conditions for fog
appear uncertain since the moisture will be fairly deep which
does not support the escape of heat necessary for fog. The
forecast is very tentative with marginal visibility and MVFR cigs.
Any breaks in the mid level cloudiness could support areas of
dense fog. Flight conditions...whatever they are Monday
morning...should improve after 14z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC


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