Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 301958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RELUCTANTLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...THEN OPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL ACT ON AN AREA
OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA.  NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE SITUATION HANDLED WELL...THUS
WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE POP FORECAST.  THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
GREATEST CHANCES REMAIN FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THE SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE DEFORMATION TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT BAND
FORMS TO OUR EAST.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY OR DEFINITE POPS
GENERALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT BEGIN TO TREND DOWN THEREAFTER WITH
ALL CHANCES DECREASED MARKEDLY BY 15Z SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY SUPPORT SNOW WHERE SNOW FELL
TODAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

CONCERNING THE CURRENT HEADLINES...DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
CUSTER COUNTY EARLY TODAY.  CERTAINLY THERE/S STANDING WATER IN MANY
FIELDS ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY NORTH THROUGH BROWN AND ROCK
COUNTY...BUT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAS
ENDED.  IF THE RUNOFF IMPACTS THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...WE WILL
ADDRESS THAT THEN...BUT SO FAR ALL HAVE BEEN BEHAVED.  THE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS SNOW IS STILL FALLING
OVER THOSE COUNTIES.  DEBATED REMOVING DEUEL...KEITH AND PERKINS
FROM THE ADVISORY...BUT MODERATE SNOW WAS REPORTED THE PAST HOUR
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR VENANGO...AND JUST WEST OF THE DEUEL
COUNTY LINE.  WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...OWING TO THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT AND CLOUDS.   TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS TODAY.  IF CLEARING OCCURS...WILL NEED TO
WATCH LOCATIONS WHERE OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORIES ARE.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30 IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
ON FRIDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA
AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING AN AMPLIFIED SWRLY FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT
RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...THEN
INTO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS LOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION
FORECAST PERIOD AS BOTH WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. ANTICIPATE SHORT FUSED UPDATES AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. THAT BEING SAID...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KMCK WILL
RELUCTANTLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION BACK
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THEN...WITH THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE
PROSPECTS OF PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY FOR BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF. DYNAMICALLY COOLED AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL ENDS WILL BE RIVER
RISE RESPONSES. RIVER POINTS ALONG THE ELKHORN...NORTH PLATTE...
SOUTH PLATTE...AND PLATTE BASINS ARE ALREADY ELEVATED AND RISING.
THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON IS ALREADY ABOVE ACTION STAGE
WHILE THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR ROSCOE AND NORTH PLATTE ARE BOTH
LESS THAN A TENTH OF A FOOT FROM ACTION STAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN IS ALSO LESS THAN A TENTH OF A FOOT FROM
ACTION STAGE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ005-025-036-037-056>058.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-022>024-035-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG



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