Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE KLBF TAF PERIOD TWD EARLY
MORNING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A RESULT OF
MELTING SNOW...WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AS TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS KLBF.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
REDUCED VSBYS THIS FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THE 5SM BR FOR KLBF.

FOG REOCCURRANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EAST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW TO
STOCKVILLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS






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