000
FXUS63 KLBF 162049
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AT H5 CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST CONUS AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A COMPACT MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP...AND LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 30KTS OR SO.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT SHIFT EAST WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE.  OTHERWISE HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A WARM DAY.  HIGHS APPROACHING 90
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ONCE AGAIN BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE...IF NOT SEVERE...AS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MODELS HAVING
MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER PATTERN. EC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM WITH GFS THE OUTLIER. RIDGE SHARPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING
NORTH JUST TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
BLACKHILLS AND TROUGH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA DRY LINE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...STATIONARY BOUNDARY WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM SECTOR IS CAPPED FRIDAY EVENING
WITH WEAKER CAP NORTH NEAR BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY FOR SEVERE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH GOOD SETUP. BULK SHEAR NUMBERS LOOK GOOD TO GET SOME
SUPER CELLS. INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. 700MB
WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDE SPREAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SATURDAY COOLING TO THE 70S SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MAY HAVE TO
TREND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES AT KVTN...WITH ALL SHOWERS NOW
NORTH AND EAST OF KLBF. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAVORING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SOLUTION
TO INCLUDE -TSRA IN THE TAF. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. ALL PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS