Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
731 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Jose and Maria continue off the east coast with a ridge of high
pressure from east Texas to Great Lakes. Deep trough over the
western Conus.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Models all in good agreement in near term forecast with line of cu
from Hayes Center to Oneill late this afternoon. This is expected
to be the focus for convection initiation. Dense cirrus streaming
north along this boundary limiting heating. We did exceed our
record high today of 93f by 1 degree 94f before the front moved
through at 315 pm cdt. Low 90s to the south of the front with 60s
70s and 80s to the north of the frontal boundary. Dry air being
entrained from the southwest where tds in the low 40s. Lows
tonight falling into the 40s and 50s with rain moving out of the
Panhandle late and moving east across western Nebraska through the
early morning. Highs on Saturday in the 40s northwest with most
areas seeing highs around 60 with some 70s to the south and east.
Areas of rain continuing as energy streams out of the trough to
the west and abundant moisture advection coming across southern
into central plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017
Areas of moderate to heavy rain expected Saturday night over
western Nebraska as better forcing comes through western Nebraska.
Lows in the 40s and 50s. Rain continues on Sunday again with
heavier amounts Sunday afternoon and evening along stalled out
boundary with highs only in the 50s and 60s. Rain begins to
lighten up Monday morning with partial  clearing from west to
east though the day as the rain ends and the upper trough shears
northeast. Lows Monday morning in the 40s to around 50 but may
have to be lowered over the northwest. Highs Monday firmly in the
50s with rain ending. Clearing Monday will make for a cold morning
on Tuesday with frost highlights possible over the western
Sandhills. Dry Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures
returning to the 70s and more seasonable.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Multiple concerns this TAF package. Local radar display shows
widely isolated showers and thunderstorms over the central and
western Sandhills. Infrequent cloud to ground lightning noted with
storms low-end at the present hour. Latest surface plot shows a
surface front lies roughly near Imperial to just north of North
Platte to north of Yankton with breezy southerly winds south of
the front and northerly winds behind.

Current thinking is the best chances for thunderstorms and
showers early to mid evening exist across the central and eastern
Sandhills. Late this evening through rest of tonight then
precipitation chances increase across west central and northwest
Nebraska west, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out there as
well. In addition, LLWS conditions will be possible across
southwest NEB attributable to a strong low-level tonight thus
mention in the KLBF TAF. Tomorrow, wet conditions are anticipated.
Rain showers likely in the afternoon, with thunderstorms
anticipated across the southwest half of the local forecast area.


Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High water will continue on the North Platte River at Lewellen.




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