Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 130957
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
357 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Latest NtMicro RGB imagery over the last three hours showed low
stratus developing and moving northward from extreme southwest NEB
into the Sandhills with bases around 200-500 ft. Some fog is present
with visibilities sub-6SM so far. Thus main impact revolves around
fog in the near-term. Of which, patchy fog is impacting the I-80
corridor with one WAZE report noted. Furthermore, latest vis report
from KOGA was 3/4SM and nearby web cams showed fog. However, no
dense fog has been observed anywhere. Current thinking is light
winds and turbulent mixing will lessen the risk of dense fog early
this morning in southwest NEB-Sandhills given winds and based on
BUFKIT soundings. Nonetheless, we will need to monitor this through
the early morning hours. Of note, KMCK had reported 1/4SM earlier,
though they appear to be on the periphery of the stratus deck/more
favored area.

Latest BUFKIT soundings show dry mid-levels above the saturated
sfc/very lower-levels at present time. Current thinking is stratus
will mix out and clear. This will evolve east-west over time and by
mid-late afternoon. Latest water vapor imagery showed a quasi-zonal
flow overhead with low amplitude broad ridge located from the
Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. Today, downsloping winds
are expected that will combine with decent insolation after status
clearing and warmer temps aloft at lower-levels. This setup should
be conducive for warmer highs compared to yesterday. Highs forecast
from the upper 60s in the eastern Panhandle to mid 50s in north
central NEB. Tonight, threat for stratus returns affecting central
NEB, though some uncertainty remains with respect to timing and
areal coverage (with respect to how far west). Late tonight partly
cloudy skies are expected over the eastern Panhandle and western NEB
with mostly cloudy skies expected over north central NEB.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Little change from the long range solutions through late week, the
large scale pattern will be characterized by zonal dry westerly flow
with occasional waves/fronts impacting temperatures.  The first
arrives across the northern plains late Tuesday into early
Wednesday.  Ahead of the system southwest winds downstream of a
deepening lee sfc trough will push highs well into the 60s across
the area, with even lower 70s possible across southwest Nebraska. We
will see some relatively low RH across far southwest Nebraska as the
downsloping southwest flow dries the lower troposphere, but not
enough to support RFW criteria.  Winds in addition are forecast to
be fairly light, but turning breezy overnight with the frontal
passage.  Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Wednesday
and Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s and lows in the 20s and
30s.

The next system arrives early on Friday with slightly more
moisture to work with and a stronger cold front. There will be a
chance of rain, possibly mixing with snow, but if precipitation
is realized, amounts will be light. The wind really kicks up
behind the front, gusts in excess of 25 mph are possible. Timing
differences between the GFS and EC create low confidence on timing
of the front and how long the precipitation lasts. The slower EC
would suggest rain chances lasting into Friday evening across our
east.

Both the GFS and EC are beginning to show some agreement for the
weekend with zonal or near zonal flow returning. Temperatures thus
will remain largely seasonal with dry conditions. Another wave and
strong front arrives on Monday, but little if any precip is
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low cloudiness will continue to push into southwestern, then
central and portions of north central Nebraska overnight. Ceilings
below 1000 FT AGL will approach the KLBF terminal after 08z
overnight and are expected to persist through midday Monday. In
addition, fog with visibilities down to a mile are expected from
10z through 16z Monday. Ceilings will gradually improve Monday
afternoon with the threat for low cloudiness to develop once again
for late Monday night. For the KVTN terminal: Low cloudiness is
expected to remain just off to the east of the terminal overnight.
However, scattered high clouds are expected over the next 24
hours.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Buttler



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