Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 020842
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY
TEMPS...WITH THE 3 AM OBS IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S. THEN A SLOW CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S AS
STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP AND CLOUDS INCREASE. LIFT IS STRONG IN THE
MID LEVELS...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME NEG LI AND A COUPLE
HUNDRED OF J/KG CAPE...THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER.

THE THUNDER THREAT LINGERS THIS EVENING THEN WITH THE LOSE OF
HEATING...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO DIMINISH. FORECAST
INCLUDES ONLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE DRIFTS SOUTH AND WILL PLAY A BIG
PART INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE USED A MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY...TEMPS MAY NEED
TO BE DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ABUNDANT DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE RUNNING UP THE
ROCKIES... CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE
VERY LOW. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS WAA AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. IF ANYTHING... MAY
NEED TO WARM WED HIGHS A LITTLE WITH A BOUNDARY OVER THE
PANHANDLE... LEADING TO SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
WITH H85 FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTH... DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS WILL
BE MINIMAL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... EURO AND GFS ARE SHOWING
STRONGER WAA FOR THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS ARE NOW PUSHING 20C WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL ON TRACK LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SFC HIGH SCOOTS EAST... OPENING UP THE GULF TRANSPORT. DEW
POINTS STILL TOPPING 50F THURSDAY AND APPROACHING 60F FRIDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT THUNDER MENTION
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENT LLJ. EURO FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE NOSE OF THE JET... CONCENTRATING MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH END CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EURO PLACING THE SFC LOW NEAR KAKO
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
FA IS PLACED IN THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF A 100KT H3 JET. IN
ADDITION... GFS SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2000J/KG... LI AROUND -5...
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS... WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER...
MORE SO IN THE GFS WITH IT STALLING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EURO A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT BEING ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE MONDAY. EITHER WAY... AT LEAST CHC POPS
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MIDDAY MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF FCSTS. CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 TO 7000 FT
AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TODAY...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CREATE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM
WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION OF THE ELKHORN RIVER
CONTINUE TO SEE FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS
STARTED TO CREST JUST ABOVE 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR
FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW SPOT
CONTINUE TO HAVE PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE.
AT LEAST THIS WEEK IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH NO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK


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