Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1249 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

At 08z...A trough of surface low pressure extended from southeast
Montana through eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. High
cloudiness ranged from partly to mostly cloudy across western
Nebraska. Temperatures ranged from near 45 to the lower 50s with
dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Today...A upper ridge axis will extend across the Central Conus,
flanked by an upper trough off the West Coast and another off upper
New England and eastern Canada. Mild temperature will continue today
across western Nebraska as 850mb temperature range from 12C-18C. The
inhibiting factor to a strong warmup will be 1) development of
stratus and fog across southwest into central Nebraska this morning
and into this afternoon 2) a considerable deck of mid and high
cloudiness from a Pacific system moving into the region. Although
only minor changes to highs from previous forecast, the coolest
highs in the upper 60s are likely to extend from Lincoln into Custer
County, where fog and stratus will persist into this afternoon. The
western Sandhills to reach the lower to mid 70s.

The aforementioned Pacific system will cross the Central Rockies and
Front Range this morning, then the Northern and Central Plains this
afternoon and evening. There is sufficient moisture and instability
to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Dakotas and mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening. As was
mentioned in the previous forecast, the far eastern zones of Boyd,
Holt and Wheeler will have a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.

Tonight...Skies to become mostly clear in the wake of the exiting
system with weak high pressure building in. Despite a mild airmass in
place, the development of a strong near surface inversion will
result in lows near 40 in the eastern Panhandle, low 40s parts of
southwest Nebraska, wit the milder upper 40s across the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Upper level ridging will build into the area through the remainder
of the week into the weekend, with 500mb heights peaking around
5850 meters Thursday night. Very warm temperatures are expected
beneath the ridging, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s both
Thursday and Friday. Highs in the mid 80s are not out of the
question across portions of southwest Nebraska both days.

A shortwave will dampen the ridging some during the weekend, and
a Pacific cold front will cool highs back some as well. Still
though, expecting highs to range from the 60s across north
central Nebraska to 70s across southwest Nebraska both Saturday
and Sunday.

Early next week, ridging begins to break down and shift more to
the southeast part of the country. Still expecting another very
mild day yet for Monday (Halloween) before some minor cooling for
the remainder of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Stratus/fog linger across southwest Nebraska a couple more hours,
otherwise mainly mid and high clouds the the rest of the day.
Overnight and into the morning hours decreasing mid/high clouds
with only a sct high deck at best expected. Winds will be light
southerly until a weak trough pushes across late this afternoon
which will cause winds to become more northwesterly, although
still remaining fairly light, less than 10 kts.


Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Highs flows to continue along the North Platte River downstream
of Lake McConaughy. Releases appear to have increased 100 cfs
Monday morning for a total flow near 1800 cfs. The current stage
at North Platte was 5.9 feet. The slight increase in flows may
cause the river stage to reach near 5.95 feet, or very near the
flood stage of 6.0 feet. Although minor overflows may occur, no
flooding is forecast at this time.





LONG TERM...Taylor
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