Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230610
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
110 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry line analyzed this afternoon across southwest Nebraska with a
stalled frontal boundary across the sandhills. A few storms starting
to fire along the frontal boundary and a decent CU field over
portions of the dry line. The stratus has broken for the most part
with the sun warming things nicely, with 3 pm obs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Also east of the dry line/frontal boundary, very muggy
with dew points well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather is the main focus this evening and will likely linger
somewhat after midnight. Afternoon special sounding showing
impressive cape and a weakening cap. Models struggling to determine
which boundary will be the focus for initial convection. Radar
already showing the line developing over cherry county with
satellite showing a nice line of towering CU across the dry line.
With the line in cherry expect that development to continue to
expand. The HRRR and the RAP favor the dry line to also initiate
over the next hour or two. Forecast will continue to include pops
for both lines, however the better upper level support arrives when
the mid level disturbance located across central Colorado lifts
across the area. Tomorrow storms should push to the east with some
clearing and temps rebounding into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The main surface front will remain southeast of the forecast area
Monday night with southwest flow aloft. kept near the 20-30 pops
across the south Monday night with a weak disturbance indicated
near the surface front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast Tuesday through
Sunday. A longwave trough extending from the west coast into the
Northern Rockies will eventually bring a closed low from Colorado
into the Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. Better chances
near 50 percent are forecast Tuesday night and again Thursday
night into Friday.

Highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday,
then cooler behind a cold front Friday in the upper 60s to lower
70s, then 75 to 80 Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Main line of thunderstorms, associated with the frontal passage,
continues to slide east across central Nebraska. Some post
frontal showers/thunderstorms have developed and could still
impact western Nebraska, including both KLBF and KVTN. Otherwise
decreasing clouds and diminishing west/northwest winds towards
morning. SCT to BKN high clouds for the afternoon. The frontal
boundary stalls to the south during the daytime then lifts back
to the north in the evening with a chance for thunderstorms
again. Still timing the development into sw Nebraska and will be
broad for the KLBF terminal with a VCTS and will refine with
later forecasts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Little change with the North Platte River forecast. Could see a
little more rise, 0.1 feet at North Platte, otherwise minor to
moderate flooding continues both upstream and downstream of lake
McConaughy. A minor wave is causing the South Platte River gages to
see a little additional rises over the next few days, however all
sites remain below flood stage on the South Platte River. The Platte
River had a change today as the slight wave moving down the South
Platte River will cause the Platte River gage at Brady to reach
minor flood stage, 7.5 feet. A flood warning was issued due to the
gage site expecting to reach the minor flood stage, the current gage
reading was 7.4 feet. Also with the potential for some rainfall
across the basin, high confidence of reaching 7.5 feet and could
possible reach 7.6 feet.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Masek



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