Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
419 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds working
east into central NEB. While mostly high level clouds are present
across western NEB, mid level clouds with ceilings largely 8-10
kft are present across the NEB Panhandle. Latest radar display
shows isolated-scattered showers across the Panhandle and far
eastern WY with infrequent thunder noted over the central
Panhandle. Latest mesoanalysis shows a surface cold front located
roughly near Wray to Ogallala to near Valentine. The surface low
associated with the front was located over the border of southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a central pressure of about 986

Marginal instability in place and appears sufficient for very
infrequent thunder across the northeast Panhandle and far
northwest NEB early this morning. While this is temporary,
thereafter the overall threat for thunder is very low with no
mention in the forecast after 12Z. Current thinking is isolated-
scattered showers will develop more so in the morning hours across
western NEB, near and after 12Z, with chances spreading eastward
in the morning. Moisture in the column becomes more favorable
early-mid morning with better moisture profiles noted. The primary
upper level PV anomaly is currently located over the Central
Rockies and will move east into the Central High Plains by mid
afternoon. Increasing large scale forcing for ascent will spread
over this morning and early afternoon as it approaches. Decent
depth of the wave with pressure on the 1.5 PV surface about 500
hPa as it tracks in. This will coincide roughly with modest
lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis this morning. Thereafter
chances are ramped-down in the early afternoon over the central-
third of the local forecast area with no-mention of precip in
the forecast by mid afternoon. Cloudy conditions this morning that
will then give way to decreasing sky cover west to east early-mid
afternoon. Breezy winds expected today with max gusts near 30-35
MPH out of the northwest. Tonight, quiet weather prevails with
mostly clear skies. Decent radiational cooling conditions are
expected with light winds tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into
mid-upper 20s to lower 30s (near to slightly below seasonal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

An upper level ridge will build across the western US on Sunday
which will result in dry conditions across the region through
Wednesday. The main story through mid-week will be the fluctuating
temperatures. Highs will start off near 70 on Sunday before
dropping back into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Temperatures drop
into the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday before jumping back into
the low to mid 70s on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a front will drop southeast across the region. This
front will bring low rain chances (less than 30%) and cooler
temperatures across north central Nebraska. Temperatures drop back
into the 50s for the end of the week. Outside of a few isolated
precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday mornings, a mostly
dry forecast is also in store for Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds back into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Main aviation concern will be strong winds ahead and with the
frontal passage through the early morning hours on Saturday.
Frequent gusts above 25kts tonight across western Nebraska.
Frontal boundary lies across the panhandle from KRAP to KBFF to
K82V. Front will continue to push east into western Nebraska
through the early morning hours. Some associated light showers
associated with the front over northwest Nebraska. Showers
expected to be fairly light. Some low level wind shear expected
across western Nebraska with low level jet at 850mb producing some
southerly winds to 40-45kts. Breezy northwest winds will continue
behind the front on Tuesday with clearing skies.




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