Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 050532
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE TX PANHANDLE...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...SANDHILLS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TILL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE ONLY BROAD WEAK LIFT...BUT MOISTURE IS THERE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DOES MOISTEN...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RESULT. ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH...POSSIBLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH OR SO
IN SPOTS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL INDICATORS ARE THAT WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THAT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THE CURRENT SNOW FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 30S LIKELY FOR MOST SPOTS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
HELPS MIX DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

PERSISTENCE OF SNOW COVER FROM THE LAST STORM WILL PROBABLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
MONDAY.

AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF CANADA AND CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...WE WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW. THE FRONT HAS A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOWING SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WE WOULD EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW TO BE CRUSTED OVER
AND THE CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY BLOWING
SNOW.

AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND VTN TERMINALS THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURENT RADAR AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING
OGALLALA AND NOW APPROACHING LBF. LIGHT SNOW AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
FROM 06Z-13Z WITH LOWEST VSBY AT 3SM. LOWEST CEILINGS BKN025. AT
KVTN...FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE 08Z- 12Z WITH LOWEST CEILINGS BKN035
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 12Z UNTIL 22Z AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO
30013G18KT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AT KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG


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