Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 010853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK. A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR AS NARROW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EXTREME NW KS. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NCTRL NEBR TO THE LOWER 60S ERN PNHDL. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE NAM AND HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ON
EXTREME SWRN NEBR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN MCV EXITING DUNDY COUNTY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AREAS EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW
BY 18Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -TSRA TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED FROM H7 TO H3...AND MUCH
DRIER H7 TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WHILE THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL WASH
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS
NEAR 29C ERN PNHDLE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS
EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FAVORED AREAS OF ANY
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL INDICATE
LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST WHICH MAY LINGER THIS EVENING.
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
NEAR 60 WESTERN SANDHILLS TO AROUND 65 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/CAPPING INVERSION/ TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...AS BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN AND NOW BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FULL DAY LATER THAN IT
WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND IS STICKING TO A MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
TREND IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY TO NEAR 90...AND FOR SUNDAY
WILL WARM HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE LOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 MPH GUSTS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ALSO...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY LABOR DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER



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