Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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759
FXUS63 KLBF 202111
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
411 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Complicated forecast in the near-term. Local radar shows a swath
of precipitation rotating slowly over western NEB. The latest
surface plot and web cams show a wintry mix to all snow over
portions of the central Sandhills. Changeover to all snow or mix
could be attributable to dynamic cooling in the column with the
heavier precip rates and a low freezing level. Temps are about
34-36 with dew points around 32-35 where snow or the mix is being
observed. While hi-res guidance has struggled with the
precipitation type, it appears to be handling the general
evolution of the precipitation swath/areal coverage. Based on
trends and hi- res guidance anticipate the threat for snow/mix to
continue through the afternoon over mainly the central Sandhills.
Precip should begin to move northeastward through the evening and
start diminishing over north central mid-late evening. Outside the
Sandhills, p-type will be predominantly liquid.

Drier air flow is expected to prevail tonight based on isentropic
analysis as the system begins to move into the Middle Missouri
valley. Sky cover should decrease from southwest NEB to north
central NEB. This will then bring the potential for frost over
much of the area with low sky cover and winds lessening, notably
over river valleys and low lying areas that are more susceptible.
Thereafter, frost threat will quickly diminish after sunrise. Main
concern with the frost advisory in place will be affect winds
will have on the areal coverage of frost. Nonetheless, a cool day
is expected tomorrow, albeit dry compared to today, with highs 5
to 10 degrees cooler than seasonal normal values.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Beyond Sunday, temperatures are expected to remain on the cool
side through Wednesday with highs expected to approach seasonal
normals Thursday and Friday. Broad large scale trough dominates
much of the central and eastern CONUS through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a ridge over the West Coast Sunday will be displaced
eastward Tuesday and Wednesday, and will then extend near the
ARKLATEX region to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday. Early
sensible weather impacts revolve around Monday into Monday night
wherein a cold front will advance southward. Increased
precipitation chances with thunderstorms exist Monday afternoon
and evening. Later in the period, Wednesday morning, the forecast
will need to be monitored as frost may become a concern for parts
of northwest NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Radar shows a broad swath of precipitation that continues to
affect much of western and north central NEB with the latest
surface plot and web cams showing a mix of precip types (rain,
rain/snow, or all snow). Snow or a rain snow mix appears largely
confined to higher elevations and intense bands of precipitation
that are located over the central and southeastern Sandhills.
Elsewhere, precipitation type is mostly rain. Snow is slushy on
paved roads and is struggling to stick, except on grasses, unpaved
roads, and higher surfaces with there is minor accumulations. A
change over to all rain is expected early this afternoon. Latest
surface plot shows mainly sub-VFR ceilings, mainly MVFR to IFR.
Some restrictions to visibility is taking place as well within
areas of heavier precipitation.

Current thinking is precipitation will start diminishing in areal
coverage late this afternoon with it slowly coming to an end in
far north central NEB this evening. Otherwise, ceilings will
improve mid-late afternoon to higher MVFR to low- end VFR (less
than 7 kft). Thereafter, ceilings will continue to improve with
decreasing clouds from west to east this evening with clouds
sticking around late tonight only in portions of far north
central NEB.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Sunday for NEZ004>006-008>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-070-071-
094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...ET



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