Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190843
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

At 08z...A cold front extended from near Norfolk through McCook to
Lamar Colorado. Convection form earlier this evening has accelerated
the front further south than expected. An MVC was evident in
southwest Cherry county. Scattered showers extended northeast of
this feature into Cherry and Brown county, while a few bands of
showers and thunderstorms extended south into southwest Nebraska
and northwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Today...An upper trough will drop through the Central and Northern
Plains. most of the mesoscale models show two distinct areas for
shower development. one will be near an upper jet max extending from
western Nebraska into northern Minnesota, while the second will be
upstream just east of the 500mb trough axis from southeast Wyoming
into central and eastern North Dakota. The will aid in sustaining
current showers and a few thunderstorms across the eastern half of
the forecast area this morning, and into the northwest half of the
forecast area this afternoon. showers with isolated thunderstorms
are expected today across the northwest half, while across the
southeastern half of the forecast area, modest instability exists
supportive of shower and thunderstorm mention. With mainly cloudy
skies and much a much cooler airmass, highs today will be from 10 to
15 degrees below normal across most of the forecast area to near 20
degrees below normal at Gordon. This will be the first "fall like "
system of the season, given 850mb temperature from 14c to 18c. Highs
to range from 65 in northern Sheridan county to the lower and mid
70s in southwest Nebraska. A secondary cold front will also move
into the northwestern zones this afternoon bringing an increase in
northwest winds to 15-25 mph. Winds ahead of this front today will
be northeast at about 10 mph.

Tonight...Shower chances will end and skies will clear out from
northwest to southeast tonight as the upper trough axis swings
across Nebraska. Northwest wind will diminish to 5 to 10 mph late
tonight, with good radiational cooling. Went near to below the
cooler mav guidance for lows of 40 near Alliance, 48 at North
Platte, and 47 at Valentine. Lows will be as much as 12 degrees
below normal across the west tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Quiet weather is expected this weekend. While unseasonably cool
temperatures will prevail Saturday, a return to near normal and
slightly above normal temperatures is expected Sunday and Monday,
respectively. Next chance for rainshowers and thunderstorms is
Tuesday.

Saturday through Sunday Night: A deep long wave trough will be
positioned over the Canadian Prairies and north central CONUS at the
start of the period while a ridge will be over the western CONUS.
Western and north central NE will be influenced by northwest flow
aloft through the period as the aforementioned trough moves east -
carving into the upper Great Lakes by early Sunday and moving into
the far northeast US by early Monday. Wherein, northwest flow,
specifically at lower-levels, will help usher cooler temperatures
into the area Saturday with 850 hPa temperatures ranging from 11-18
C across north central NE to western NE, in contrast with average
850 hPa temperature this time of year that are about 22 C.
Conditions are expected to be quiet as high pressure at the surface
moves into the area Saturday morning and will be in place overhead
by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions and sunny skies will prevail.
Highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal are expected Saturday. Western
and north central NE will then continue stay dry and mostly sunny
Sunday as the area continues to be affected by said high pressure as
it moves into the middle Mississippi Valley. A short warming trend
begins Sunday with warmer highs forecast compared to Saturday with
highs around their seasonal normal values.

Monday through Thursday: a weak mid-level ridge builds over western
and north central NE Monday behind the departing trough, meanwhile
the next 500 hPa trough moves into the Northern Rockies and Alberta
and Saskatchewan provinces. Southerly flow at low-levels usher
warmer temperatures into the area with forecast 850 hPa temperatures
around 23-29 C, east to west, on Monday. A surface low is expected
to develop near Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces early Monday that
will then move into the Canadian Prairies early Tuesday with a
trough extending down into the central Plains. A weak cold front is
then anticipated to move through western and north central NE
Tuesday afternoon. This will be accompanied by increased chances of
rain showers and thunderstorms. Milder temperatures then follow
behind the frontal passage Wednesday and Thursday along with
increased chances for rain showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will occur overnight
and into Friday behind a cold front and upper trough passage. Vfr
ceilings are forecast, although mvfr ceilings are possible until
15z. Northerly winds will generally remain below 12 kts, except
increase by late afternoon and into the evening as a reinforcing
cold front passes through.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Roberg



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