Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
855 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 855 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Added areas of locally dense fog across Southwestern Nebraska to
the forecast through 15z based off of observations. Also...issued
a Dense Fog Advisory for all of Southwestern Nebraska until 15z.
Expect visibilities across the advised area to begin to increase
around extension to the advisory may be needed
if the fog is stubborn to burn off.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Thermal ridge will remain across the region today, with another very
mild day expected. The warmest readings will reside west of a line
from Valentine to North Platte, where a drying downslope wind help
boost highs into the lower and mid 80s. Farther east, low level gulf
moisture will be slow to mix out, and expecting at least some
lingering stratus clouds for areas around Broken Bow, northeast
through Burwell and O`Neill. This will keep highs cooler and have
lower to mid 70s for these areas.

Low level moisture will spread west some tonight, and remain in
place across central Nebraska. As temperatures cool to near the dew
point across central Nebraska expect patchy fog to form late.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Still expecting a quiet start to the upcoming week across central
Nebraska. Weak upper level ridging will keep dry conditions and
warmer temperatures in the forecast for Monday. Patchy fog has
been to the Monday morning forecast for areas southeast of a
O`Neill to North Platte line. Fog should burn off by mid morning.
High temperatures Monday will range from the low 70s across
Sheridan county to the low 80s across the southeastern forecast

A upper level trough begins to dig into the central US on Tuesday
allowing cold air advection to begin filtering into the north
central Plains. Highs Tuesday will be noticeably cooler as
temperatures will only rise into the low to mid 60s. The next chance
of precipitation also arrives on Tuesday night. Rain will begin
first across western Nebraska by 9pm Tuesday night and slowly spread
eastward across central Nebraska. Rain showers continue through
Wednesday and Wednesday evening as the trough continues to dig
southward across Nebraska. Cooler air will continue to move into the
region on Wednesday, resulting in high temperatures to only be in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Current model soundings are indicating
surface temperatures a few degrees higher than previous forecasts
and therefore mention of snow for portions of the eastern panhandle
have been removed. Rain comes to an end by midnight Thursday.

Strong upper level ridge builds across the western US on Thursday
resulting in surface high pressure and dry conditions for the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Expect gradual warming
in temperatures through this timeframe as well, rising from the
upper 50s on Thursday to the upper 60s to low 70s by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

High clouds will increase from the west overnight. Winds will
stay up at KVTN through the night and increase through the day on
Sunday north of a line from KOGA to KONL at 10 to 20 KTS with
higher gusts. Valley fog expected to develop over southwest
Nebraska around sunrise. Have included a tempo group with MVFR
visibilities at KLBF.


Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Red flag warning looks on track across western and portions of north
central Nebraska today. Southwest to westerly downslope winds will
spread warm, dry air about as far east as Valentine by this
afternoon. Gusts over 25 mph are likely as humidity falls to below
20 percent.


Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-208.



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