Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 040015 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS



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