000
FXUS63 KLBF 061002
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.

MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BECOME BROKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20012G18KT AT KVTN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG