


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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312 FXUS63 KLBF 280844 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 344 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in place across north central Nebraska south into northern Lincoln and central Custer County. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - The combination of temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is forecast across all of western and north central Nebraska on Sunday. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Even hotter temperatures today, with highs forecast to reach the mid 90s most locations, and even the upper 90s far southwest. This will lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Thunderstorms are possible by late this afternoon, with one focus along a pre-frontal surface trough, draped from near Chamberlain South dakota through Valentine, back to the southwest through Oshkosh in Garden County. Some of the latest CAMs including the 3km NAM develop convection along this boundary, especially from South Dakota into Cherry County. If storms do form along this boundary, upscale growth may lead to a cluster or clusters of storms developing southeast into north central and possibly into west central Nebraska. Other isolated storms initiating in the western Sandhills will move east through the evening hours. Plenty of instability available, with SPCAPES as high as 3000 to over 4000 J/KG. Large hail and damaging winds, especially from outflow from storm clusters are the main threats. Locally heavy rain is also possible, given PWATs from 1.25 to 1.5 inches available. The activity should move into portions central and eastern Nebraska late evening into the overnight hours. On Sunday, a cold front will push through the forecast area, with cooler highs from the upper 70s to low 80s north central to the the mid to upper 80s southwest. There a 5 to 8 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile max temperatures, so confidence in highs is below average. Regarding POPs, chances increase to about 40 percent Sunday afternoon as the surface front stalls near the Nebraska/Kansas border. There is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms across the entire area, meaning a few strong to briefly severe storms are possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 After chances for showers and storms Sunday evening, Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the mid 80s for Monday. Upper ridging builds into the region Tuesday through Thursday with lows chances for storms. The upper flow becomes more zonal by Friday (Independence Day), with increased chances for showers and storms. Highs return to the low 90s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, except where thunderstorms occur. Thunderstorms may affect the KLBF terminal toward the end of the TAF period between 00Z-06Z, and have included VCTS, as confidence remains low. Lower confidence at KVTN, and have not included a mention attm. LLWS will also affect the KVTN terminal until 13Z, with WS020/20045KT. Winds will remain light at the KLBF and KVTN terminals, generally south to southwest to around 10KT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg