Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Aviation section...

Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Ridge dominating the desert southwest. Northwest flow across the
high plains. Train of disturbances riding the northern periphery of
the ridge, which takes them over the CWA. One wave is exiting the
southeast with another wave over southwest S Dakota. Generally
seasonal temperatures with 3 PM CDT in the lower to mid 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The major concern over the next 24 hours will be placement of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models not really
having a good handle on the convection that has fired along the
Neb/S. Dakota border. A surface trough continues to slowly drift to
the southeast, which was the focus for a line of showers earlier.
This line is starting to see more development, however in the next
few hours the boundary should be located southeast of the CWA.

Meanwhile eyes will begin to track the second wave which is just
crossing into the CWA. Storms have already fired along the boundary
and will likely remain isolated to scattered as the boundary drifts
to the southeast. Marginal instability with cape of 1000 to 2000
with 0 to 6 km shear around 30 kts. Better shear develops later
however the cape will diminish. Locally an isolated strong or severe
storm will possible and agree mostly with the SPC marginal risk
across the west although it probably could be a little further to
the east to cover the storms by KVTN. Some clearing is possible
overnight with temps similar to last night in the upper 50s to
around 60s.

Tomorrow another day with another couple of waves that will continue
to keep at least low pops in the forecast. In and out of clouds and
a slightly cooler airmass will result in temps a couple degrees
cooler than today. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Models in good agreement and have good confidence in the forecast.
Stationary boundary lying across the panhandle and upper 250mb jet
overhead but weakening as stronger to mid level wave moves through
in fast northwest flow. Have higher pops over southwest zones
along the boundary. lows in the upper 50s northwest to the low 60s
southwest. Boundary continues to the west with upslope flow and
mid level waves moving across the northern plains through the day
on Friday. Residual showers thunderstorms through the day on
Friday with highs in the low 80s due to cloud cover and
precipitation. Broad trough over the Great Lakes Saturday with
deepening closed low over western Canada will allow ridge to build
back into the central and northern plains. A warm front will
spread northeast across the forecast area with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A few showers isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
along the warm front over north central Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. Low pressure moves into the northern plains Sunday with
the trough axis to the west and most of western Nebraska in the
warm sector. Highs in the 90s. Upper closed low along the Canadian
border will push a front through the forecast area on Monday with
highs in the 90s Monday and Tuesday. Front will be the focus for
thunderstorm development late afternoon and early evening as it
lies across southwest Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Currently, there are two clusters of storms moving southeast
through north central and central NE. These storms will be
exiting the forecast area within the next 1-2 hours. Behind these
storms is a convective line moving ESE across south central SD --
these storms should clip portions of north central NE and will be
crossing the NE border within the hour.

Rest of tonight: Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are still
possible, primarily over western Nebraska. Chances for additional
thunderstorm over north central and central NE should diminish
after the present thunderstorm activity moves through/diminishes.
Uncertainty still exists tonight though regarding organized vs.
unorganized convection and coverage across western NE. Hi-res
models have been having trouble with present thunderstorms so
confidence is low.

Increased chances for thunderstorms tomorrow. Best chances across
the southwest half of the forecast area, with strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. However, no mention in the TAF package
for thunderstorms tomorrow and this is attributable to confidence
and coverage uncertainty at this time.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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