Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
658 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure located
over Texas and the southern CONUS. Upstream of this high pressure
a closed low was present over southwestern Oregon with a positive
tilted trough extending to the southwest into the eastern Pacific.
West of the trough, a ridge extended from northern British
Columbia into western portions of the Northwest Territories of
Canada. Broad west southwest flow extended from southern
California east northeast into the central and northern plains
tonight. At the surface, a cold front has pushed through the
forecast area earlier this evening and was located along a line
from just east of Oneill, to Ord and Lexington Nebraska. Low level
cloudiness has pushed in behind the front and as of 230 AM CDT,
extended along and north of a line from Ogallala, to North Platte,
to Broken Bow. Readings as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 59 at Imperial
to 64 at Oneill.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Cloud cover and its impacts on temperatures along with the threat
for precipitation tonight is the main forecast concerns. For
today: Cloud cover will be slow to burn off as the frontal
boundary stalls just off to the east and southeast of the area
today. On the southern periphery of the cloud shield, some breaks
in the cloud cover will develop toward the middle and end of the
forecast period. Further north across the northern sandhills and
far northern Nebraska, cloud cover is expected to persist into the
afternoon and evening hours. With this in mind, limited highs in
the northern CWA to the mid to upper 60s. This is in contrast to
the lower 80s across far southern Nebraska where sun will be more
prevalent this afternoon. For tonight: The frontal boundary will
lift north as a warm front overnight. Mid level warm air advection
will increase as well with the strongest WAA noted over the
northeastern forecast area. The inherited forecast had the highest
pops in the northeast which is on track given the forecasted
location of highest mid level WAA. Further south, skies will be
mainly clear this evening and into the overnight with dry conds
expected. Lows will be mild once again given the cloud cover and
low level moisture advection. Readings will range from the middle
50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the south and east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A hot day is expected Friday as a surface warm front moves north
through the area into southern South Dakota. This occurs due to
deepening surface low pressure across the Nebraska Panhandle in
response to an approaching strong shortwave/upper level low. Much
if not all of western and north central Nebraska will be in the
warm sector to the south of the warm front by afternoon. In
addition to the heat, strong south to southeast winds gusting in
excess of 25 mph can be anticipated as the pressure gradient
tightens. Low level moisture will be drawn northward into the
area, but will tend to mix out some during the afternoon with dew
points in the lower to mid 50s common. This combined with
temperatures nearing 90 degrees should yield SFC based CAPE of
1000 to 2000 J/KG. By late afternoon a few thunderstorms will
likely develop near an inverted surface trough that will be
located across the panhandle. Other storms should develop across
eastern Colorado near a dry line. Upper level forcing will be
increasing across the region during the evening as a strong
shortwave begins to eject northeast across the area. The most
likely scenario will be for the panhandle storms to move north-
northeast across northwest Nebraska, and the eastern Colorado
storms will move quickly northeast into southwest and eventually
central and north central Nebraska Friday night. Deep layer shear
will be increasing Friday night, with flow nearly unidirectional.
Some strong wind gusts may accompany the storms as stronger winds
aloft mix to the surface.

As the shortwave trough/upper level circulation moves toward North
Dakota Saturday, a cold front will be driven through the area.
At this point it looks like the front will be east of the area by
peak heating when a round of surface based thunderstorms should
develop along and ahead of the front. If the front slows down,
then Holt and Wheeler counties will have to be monitored for
afternoon thunderstorm development. Otherwise drying aloft will
allow for plenty of sun behind the front, with highs mainly in
the 70s. Sunday looks dry and cooler behind the front, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s.

Next week is rather uncertain, as models continue to struggle with
the develoment of a new upper level low across the region.
Regardless, it appears moisture will be rather limited with
this system, and with no strong surface feature accompanying the
upper low to draw cooler air southward, expect a gradual warming
of temperatures through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR CIGS below 1000 FT AGL thorugh
mid morning. MVFR CIGS are possible thereafter until early
afternoon. After early afternoon, CIGS will increase to 20000
FT AGL and scatter out. By late evening, look for CIGS to falloff
to 1200 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Expect IFR CIGS below 1000
FT AGL through 15z this morning. Cigs will increase to 1200 to
2500 FT AGL by late morning, increasing further to 5000 FT AGL by
late afternoon. CIGS will fall off to 500 to 1500 FT AGL Thursday


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.