Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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612
FXUS63 KLBF 230959
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The model consensus suggests the h700mb would track far enough south
to affect Custer County tonight. The model blend puts 4 to 8 inches
of snow in that area. Custer County has been added to the Winter
Storm Warning.

The slightly south trend in the model solutions could actually spare
Holt and Boyd Counties somewhat. WPC suggested 8 to 10 inches of
snow in that area. Temperatures this morning are running a degree or
two cooler than forecast suggesting snow will be the operative Ptype
for this event and in fact...snow is underway at Valentine and
Ainsworth with temperatures below freezing. The snow is sticking to
the roads in Rushville where temperatures are in the mid 20s but not
at Pine Ridge where it is 30F.

The forecast is fairly similar to the previous forecast with the 12-
18 inches forecast from ONeill to Hay Springs. Heavy snow should be
underway along much of highway 20 by daylight. The RAP40 model shows
fairly strong frontogenesis setting up along the SD border by 18z
and this forcing in conjunction with the H700mb low tracking along
or near I-80 is the genesis for heavy snow. The RAP13 and HRRR
models show 15 to 20 inches of snow today along highway 20 west of
Valentine.

The forcing of the H700mb low is the basis for the winter storm in
Custer County. Some models dont favor that feature while other do.
The RAP13 does not. Winds are forecast to remain at 15 to 25 mph
today through Friday. This was using a blend of guidance plus bias
correction. A blend of MOSGuide...the RAP...GFS and dngNAM was the
basis for gusts to around 35 mph tonight east of highway 83 which
suggested Custer County should be included in the Winter Storm
Warning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Main concern this forecast period is the end time of the snow and
wind speeds. Precipitation should taper off across the northwest
forecast area by afternoon as the surface Low continues to translate
northeastward towards the Great Lakes region. By Friday night all
precipitation should be off to the south and east of our forecast
area. Winds will be breezy around 15 to 25 mph out of the
north...which could lead to patchy areas of blowing snow.

Lows will be quite chilly Friday night with temperatures in the
single digits to low teens. After that temperatures should rebound
to near normal through the weekend. The next chance for
precipitation comes on Tuesday in association with an upper level
disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest satellite imagery has showed increasing cloud cover across
western and north central NEB. Stratus with IFR ceilings is
advancing southward and has reached KTIF and KONL. Current
thinking holds that conditions will continue to deteriorate
across the remainder of the forecast area to low-end MVFR then IFR
rest of tonight. IFR to LIFR ceilings will then prevail tomorrow.

No precipitation yet. Snow/wintry mix will develop over northwest
NEB between midnight and 3 AM CST. Snow will then spread eastward
into the Sandhills into north central NEB in the morning,
elsewhere a wintry mix will be seen with rain more likely farther
south. Expect the wintry mix to changeover to all snow tomorrow
mid-late afternoon. Current thinking is KLBF terminal will see a
switch to all snow late afternoon/early evening. Average
confidence exists with respect to changeover over the
Interstate 80 corridor on south. Moderate to heavy snow at times,
mainly north of the Interstate 80 corridor with vis 1/2 mile or
worse. Breezy northwest winds developing now into the small
hours. Northerly winds will then strengthen during the day
tomorrow with gusts between 20 and 30 mph anticipated.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ056>059.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ004-
094.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>037.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST Friday for
NEZ038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...ET



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