Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250431 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW
INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S...WARMEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW
MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA AND ON OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ONTO THE PLAINS.

WEATHER TONIGHT...WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD ROTATE INTO SW NEB OVERNIGHT AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE.

TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWATS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH OR
EVEN HIGH IN THE EASTERN ZONES...MOVEMENT WILL ALSO BE SLOW AND SOME
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE. BEST INSTABILITY IS TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

AS WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...A TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS
GULF COAST DEVELOPS AND BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
ONCE AGAIN. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -6C AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 1500-2500J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KT. HOWEVER...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT.

WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONSIDERATION INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL
NOT GET TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT AND
LIFTS MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SREF AND SFC OBS SUGGEST VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SD BORDER.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
RAIN WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS NWRN NEB. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ACROSS COLO
DRIFTING INTO NEB SUPPORTING CONTINUE RAIN MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP A TSTM COMPLEX MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WHATEVER RAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN WOULD LIKELY DECREASE 03Z-06Z
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AND PLATTE RIVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
IS HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE NEXT PUSH OF WATER IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ANOTHER RISE OF RIVER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THIS
CREST IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER THE ONE THAT MOVED DOWN THE RIVER
OVER THE PAST WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AND MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL SNOW
MELT AND CAUSE THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY TO
RISE. AT THE GAUGE SITES...NO FLOODING IS EXPECT AT LISCO HOWEVER AT
LEWELLEN NEAR BANK OR MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE FORECAST BRINGS THEM TO THE FLOOD STAGE OF
7.5 FEET.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





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