Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270856
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT FROM A LOW ALONG
THE WYOMING-MONTANA LINE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE WAS ALSO A LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INDICATED THAT THE DRY LINE WAS
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE MSAS INDICATED THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WAS
JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. THE RADAR WIND PROFILES SHOWED A NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN THEDFORD AND RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THUS STRENGTHENING THE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE DRY LINE. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. THE RAP13 AND GFS40 APPEAR TO FAVOR A LATER ONSET.
LOOKING AT THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTIONS FROM THE THREE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LATER TIMING MAY BE APPROPRIATE. STILL...THE
NAM12 SOLUTION CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT THAT I HAVE ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY. IN ANY CASE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT MUCH LIKE IT DID
YESTERDAY WITH THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CURRENT IDEA IS TO USE A 2/3 BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
THE OTHER MODELS AND GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE RAP13 AND THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL. ANYWAY...THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6M BULK SHEAR FOR
LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OR NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NOW LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NICE DRY JULY DAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. DECIDED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TO GO ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH VERY DRY /FOR JULY/ AIR TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW PTS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE CWA. SOME MODELS EVEN BRING SOME UPPER 30S INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOS GUIDANCE IS TANKING TEMPS. SEE
NO REASON WITH THE LOW DEW PTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...WHY THIS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE REACHED. RECORD LOWS FOR
WED /29TH/ ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 40S. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE BL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO SEE HOW LOW WE COULD FALL
TO. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD LOW FOR NORTH PLATTE IS ONLY 49
DEGREES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE DROPS
THE LOW TO 50.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS. SFC FRONT STALLED OVER KS SO EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY
DAY.

THIS CHANGES AS WE GO TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL CLIPPERS
/SHORT WAVES/ TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS.
ALSO GOING TO SEE SW/S WINDS DEVELOP AND HELP TO RETURN THE
MOISTURE. TIMING EACH PASSING WAVE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT EACH WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 09Z MONDAY.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CLEAR OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 04Z TUESDAY. MVFR VISBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB


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