Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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375
FXUS63 KLBF 081858
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1258 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Temperatures will be main concern for short term forecast. Strong
northwest flow will continue over north central Nebraska to the
east of a valentine to Broken bow line. Northwest winds 15 to 25
mph with gusts to around 30 and single digit temperatures
creating wind chills in the -15 to -20 range. Temperatures would
drop off several more degrees towards sunrise and will increase
wind chill values. Will continue advisory through mid morning as
temperatures continue to fall with surface high to the northwest
and moving east.

Cold again today with highs in the lower teens northwest and the
upper teens south similar to yesterday. Winds diminishing over
the west this morning and the remainder of the eastern zones
through the afternoon.

Winds becoming southeasterly tonight on the backside of the
surface high as it moves east and increasing clouds. Lows
expected most areas early...after midnight and then holding
steady or increasing. Still fairly cold with negative numbers
along the Sheridan Cherry county borders. Most of the rest of the
area to see single digits. With increasing clouds and southerly
winds temperatures could end up between 5 and 10F instead of 2 to
5. May have to be updated with later forecasts but have trended
toward colder guidance. Minimal snow cover is another aspect to
take into consideration.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Friday will be yet another cold day as arctic high dominates the
plains with temps topping out in the 20s. Weak mid level
disturbance rides across S Dakota during the afternoon and could
bring a little light snow/flurries to northern Neb near the S
Dakota border. Lower level dryness may result in only an increase
clouds.

Warm front to lift through the area Saturday bringing warmer
temps. Much of the region should push into the 30s with some temps
around 40 across far sw Neb. Warm advection may be enough for some
light precip as a wave slides across the Neb/S Dakota border again
dry lower levels may be to much to overcome and will continue to
low pops and monitor.

Warm up is short lived as a cold front brings cold air back to the
region for Sunday. This wave also has some mid level lift which
will bring yet another chance for precip. Not much moisture to
work with, with precip expected to be light.

Tricky start to the week. The latest guidance has a yo-yo of
temps as active northern stream continues, occasionally bringing
a chance for light snow. In the wake of each system cold air to
spread south out of Canada. After a near seasonal Monday cooler
air not forecasted for Tuesday. This system is tracking further
to the south with MOS guidance some 15 to 25 degrees cooler. Will
follow blend of new and old guidance which does not drop temps as
fast to avoid the flip flopping of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Increasing mid level clouds are expected later tonight into
Friday, with perhaps a few flurries across northern Nebraska
Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions expected all areas with winds
switching to the southeast at 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Taylor



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