Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181157
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

At 08z...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued
mainly east of an Ainsworth through Broken Bow line. Showers have
ended across the western sandhills with clear skies in the eastern
panhandle into parts of the western sandhills. Temperatures ranged
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

A weak disturbance currently moving across western Nebraska will
bring a slight chance for lingering showers to Holt and Garfield
county until 9 am cdt. Clearing skies will also move eastward, for
sunny skies all areas by early afternoon. Warmer temperatures today
with a southwesterly wind 5 to 15 mph. Highs remain very near the
previous forecast from 82 to 84 near and west of highway 83, and 77
to 82 to the east.

For tonight, southwesterly flow aloft will become reestablished as
an upper trough digs from the Pacific Northwest into the Great
Basin. A surface trough in the leeside of the Rockies will persist.
Southerly winds will occur at 5 to 10 mph, except gusting to 20 mph
at times across portions of north central Nebraska. This will help
keep lows in the upper 50s much of the north central with low to mid
50s southeastern panhandle and southwest where lighter winds will be
found. Skies will remain mostly clear, except in the northeast where
models indicate stratus development possible after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday afternoon and evening. At
this time, models are keeping precipitation to the north and east of
our area. However, with enough instability across the northern
forecast area, it could be possible for a storm or two to move into
this northern region. SPC outlook has put our eastern third (mainly
east of a line from Dunning to Sparks) in a marginal and slight risk
with a similar explanation of enough forcing being around late
Tuesday to warrant the chance for severe storms. If storms make it
south, they aren`t supposed to last long in our area as the main
area of focus will be to the east and north.

Quiet weather will then continue from Wednesday through Friday
morning. Another chance of rain arrives for the end of the week and
into the weekend. While still early, this system appears to be more
of a heavy rain event with the likelihood of severe weather being
minimal. Between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning, 1.5 to 3.5
inches of rain is forecasted to fall. Will have to keep an eye on
this storm later this week to determine if flooding issues will need
to be addressed.

For temperatures, highs continue in the upper 70s to mid 80s through
Thursday. Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Friday and into the
weekend. Highs by next Sunday will only be in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

An area of stratus extends across the southern panhandle and
southwest Nebraska into central Nebraska. Lowest ceilings were
IFR near 700 feet at OGA and IML and MVFR near 1300 ft at KLBF.
The stratus will burn off by 15z with a mainly sunny sky expected
across western Nebraska into tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg



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