Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 012011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN
MEXICO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  WEST
OF THE RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW WITH 50 TO 90 METER HT FALLS NOTED FROM NRN CALIFORNIA
INTO OREGON. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SWD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER UTAH...WHICH
HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF COLORADO AND
SERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER A THICK
VEIL OF STRATUS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SINCE BURNED OFF THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
READINGS AS OF 2 PM CDT RANGED FROM 69 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 79 AT
VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS DECK IS
FINALLY BREAKING UP AND MIXING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED CHANCES THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STRONG EARLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
ECHOES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG ADVECTION
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR OVER NIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE 60S.
STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE BUT DO NOT BELIEVE VISIBILITY WILL
BE A CONCERN. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEBRASKA CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST AREA TO BE IN
WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
AND STRONG WAA CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. FAIRLY CAPPED SOUTH WITH
BEST DYNAMICS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF
THE DAY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE
PREVIOUS ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH LESS SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND APPG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 00Z
WEDNESDAY IS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...SO THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH HAIL/WIND BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A MCS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY EVENING...TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS IT
FOLLOWS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
POSTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF/S IN THE NORTH...AND EASTERN
CWA...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
THE ATM WILL BE CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED POPS INVOF THE DRYLINE IN THE SWRN CWA...SHOULD ANY
STORMS INITIATE ALONG THIS FEATURE DURING PEAK HEATING. AS THIS MCS
DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL
FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN KS WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS
MORNING...WAS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE NAM/S DEPICTION OF THE
QPF FIELD WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS PERSISTENT PCPN ACROSS SWRN ANS
SCENTRAL NEBRASKA. ATTM...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA/NW KS OR NERN COLORADO LATE WEDS AFTN/WEDS EVE INVOF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST
FOR OUR SWRN ZONES...LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE THAN TUESDAY/S SETUP. LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...AS WELL AS
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AGAIN...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE FRONT AND INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT OFF TO THE SW
OF LBF. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE AND WET BULB ZERO HTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FT
AGL. SHIFTING TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN SWRN NEBRASKA. A SIMILAR SETUP EXISTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY/S WITH A NICE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN
KS...SWRLY WINDS ALOFT...AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED ACROSS
NRN KS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS THE FCST HAD THE SITUATION HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL.

.LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT LIFTS NNE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME DRYING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE EXITING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL FORCING EXISTS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE APPG INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON FROM
ARTHUR THROUGH CURTIS. WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERRODE WITH
THE INCREASED MIXING. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES IN FLOOD STAGE FROM LISCO TO LEWELLEN
WITH NEARLY STEADY LEVEL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PLATTE RIVER
FROM THE CONFLUENCE TO BRADY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ROSCOE AND BRADY CONTINUE WARNINGS WITH ELEVATIONS
IN FLOOD THIS WEEK.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTH PLATTE AREA...BUT IT
WILL CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK AND HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING...AROUND THE IRON EAGLE GOLF COURSE. CHECK WITH
LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






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